The Proto-Faceoff

The article that started it all - September 7, 2007, just before Kevin Kouzmanoff got hot and finished the season with respectable numbers, completely solidifying the position I took in the article.
-Chris

The clock is ticking on your next selection in the minor league portion of your fantasy draft. The first couple dozen slam-dunk prospects are long gone. You look at the options available to you and see two types of players: those who can help you right away but have limited ceilings and those who are far away from helping but have high ceilings. So whom do you select?

In this edition of Fantasy Face-Off, Chris and Joseph will offer two different strategies for selecting minor leaguers for your dynasty fantasy baseball leagues. Because he posed the question, Joe will give his answer and Chris will have the opportunity to respond.

Chris, the answer is simple: select the player with the highest ceiling and don’t look back. Players who can help immediately are always available, that’s why you have a major league draft or auction. A player with a limited ceiling can often be replaced by a veteran at little or no cost who may produce the same (or even better statistics) than your “safe” minor league option. As an example, let us consider a situation in which you were deciding between Josh Fields, Bill Rowell, Angel Villalona and Kevin Kouzmanoff prior to this season. All third base prospects, your decision comes down to your team needs, league rules, and strategy. If you had selected Fields or Kouzmanoff, you would have received slightly less than acceptable production out of your third base position this year (Kouzmanoff is currently hitting .248 with 15 HR and 58 RBI in 391 AB, Fields .241/18/54/295 AB). This production is something that you can replace by selecting (or bidding $1 on) Brandon Inge (.235/12/60/434 AB) or Pedro Feliz (.249/17/62/482 AB).

When you take someone like Angel Villalona (the poster child for my strategy), you are taking someone who might make their major league debut and put thirty home runs on the board in his first season. Now, THAT is an impact player. And if you continue to take the high ceiling guys with every minor league pick, eventually you will have a steady stream of high-ceiling prospects that are major league ready. It might take a while, but your patience today can have rewards far into the future. And five years from now, when Josh Fields and Kevin Kouzmanoff are available at the end of your auction or draft (like Brandon Inge and Pedro Feliz are today), you’ll have a valuable commodity that will lead you to the fantasy “holy land” year in and year out.

A few guys (most you’ll already know) that I like for their high ceilings that you should jump on in your minor league drafts if they are still available:

Angel Villalona, 3B, Giants
Jesus Montero, C, Yankees
Engel Beltre, OF, Rangers
Gorkys Hernandez, OF, Tigers
Edward Salcedo, SS, TBD-Unsigned

Dellin Betances, P, Yankees
Jarrod Parker, P, Diamondbacks
Michael Main, P, Rangers



Listen up, Joe. Prospects are fun. Prospects are sexy. If you can unearth a hidden gem far ahead of your competitors in fantasy baseball, you could reap the benefits for years. But that means that you are aiming to compete in the coming years as opposed to the coming months. If you grab a guy who might have a lower ceiling but is ready right now, it could help you this season, and might make the difference between a championship and “just another season”. If the draft or auction didn’t go so well, don’t panic. There are always chances to improve your team during the season. The best way to do that is to pay attention during the year, gobbling up bargains off the waiver wire. If you are able to adjust throughout the year, you will be a contender. There’s no sense taking a prospect with the idea of waiting for next year – or four years from now - when you could take a player who is ready to go in the majors.

The key to measuring a prospect’s worth is to know your league – this is really the key to winning, period, but that’s another column. How long do you keep your prospects? How long can you keep them once they’ve graduated to the majors? If you take a guy like Villalona, are you going to be able to keep him for the 4-6 years it will take him to develop? If you take a guy like Kouzmanoff, at least you know he can hit AA breaking stuff, and has a chance to hit in the bigs. It turns out he hasn’t been that great this year – but he’s hit 15 homers, and has a full season in the majors under his belt now. Don’t underestimate the value of that.

One of my favorite strategies is to trade early draft picks for multiple late picks. If you have a bunch of late picks, the individual picks are not as crucial, so you can load up with a bunch of players who have slipped. Guys to look for are pitchers who are “just #3 or #4 starters” (like Brian Bannister) or 24-year-old sluggers who dominated AA last year. These players stand a chance of contributing this year, which is key. So instead of depending on one guy to develop in a few years, you are hoping one out of two or three does something this year.

If you remember anything from what you just read, think twice before going into a rebuilding mode. I’ve seen too many teams give up on this year for next year, and then the next. It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. You don’t want to be the Pittsburgh Pirates of your league. It’s more fun to make the effort, stay engaged all season, and claw your way into the mix at the top of the league.

Here are a few guys to keep your eye on for next season. If you think they might snag a job by midseason, it might be worth calling their name on draft day:

Brandon Jones, OF, Braves
Nolan Reimold, OF, Orioles
Eric Patterson, 2B, Cubs

Chuck Lofgren, P, Indians
Will Inman, P, Padres
Jaime Garcia, P, Cardinals

Well, there it is folks. Two different strategies on how to use those minor league draft picks when the “can’t miss” prospects have already been taken. Check back soon for another edition of Baseball Faceoff.