Finding Stolen Bases

Originally posted January 22, 2008

Some fantasy baseball players have a fetish for stolen bases. Gaudy numbers like 40, 50, or 60 (gasp) make them swoon. It doesn’t matter what stats the player may put up in other categories, people pay a premium for the rare commodity called stolen bases. This week Joe and Chris discuss their feelings this common statistic and how to gather a chunk of them for your team. The way a player feels about this issue tells a lot about how he or she plays the game. Chris begins the face-off:

Joe,
My strategy for finding stolen bases in any league is to focus on well-rounded players. Did you know that Gary Sheffield stole 22 bases last year? Players like him are incredibly valuable because they contribute in all categories. If you can get a bunch of players that steal 10 to 20 bases you should keep up with most teams in a head to head league, and be in the middle of the pack in a roto league. Then, because you never paid the premium to get the top stolen base threats, your other players will drive your team to the top in all the other categories.

As a fantasy baseball player I tend to stay away from the guys who are only highly rated because of stolen bases. I can’t bring myself to take Jose Reyes in the first round. And I tend to value guys like Chone Figgins or Juan Pierre lower than most people as well. I would never say never about those players, but someone else always picks them up before me.

The reasoning behind that is pretty simple – I think you’re taking a stolen base threat over players better able to help your team win. As an extreme example of what I’m trying to say, consider a league that counts batter strikeouts. Would you draft Ryan Howard? Maybe, maybe not. But, given that Howard struck out 78 more times than Prince Fielder last year, wouldn’t that make it easier to decide between them? In that case you have players who are essentially equal in every category – except that one. I think that makes your decision easier. You have essentially equal skill in all categories, except one.

Stolen bases are an even easier comparison. Take Carlos Guillen against Jose Reyes. Reyes goes in the first few picks or for around $30. Guillen goes closer to pick 50 or 60 ($17- $22). For two-thirds the cost you get more RBI and more HR. Average and OBP are about even – and Reyes probably scores a few more runs. Guillen steals a few bases (13 in 2008), which is a key factor. You didn’t bail on the category completely. Despite the premium for Reyes, your team wouldn’t be that much better off with him on it.

Because Reyes steals so many more bases and scores more runs, he is undeniably a more valuable player. However, you can’t just look at that part of the equation. You are building a team, so you must look at the player you gave up when you took Reyes.

The player you could have taken with your draft pick, or the money you allocated to him, could put your team in a better position to win. Consider David Wright. If you put your resources toward him instead of Reyes, and waited awhile to take your shortstop, your team would end up better off. Wright matches Reyes in runs, roughly doubles him in homers and rbi, is a good bet for a higher batting average and obp, and steals half the bases. Then you get a better-than average shortstop like Guillen later and you’re golden. Well-rounded players like Wright are simply invaluable. If you stay away from the gaudy steals-grabbers like Reyes and go for well-rounded players, I think it’s easier to put together a good team. And that’s what we’re trying to do – build a team that will accumulate the stats you need to win. If you go through the trouble to rank all the players before a draft, don’t just draft the guy you rank #34 when he’s available at 45. Ask yourself, how does he fit into the team?

The counter-argument to this is that the lost opportunity concept goes both ways. By taking Reyes early, you don’t need to worry about grabbing stolen bases from all your other players. That’s a good argument, and the strategy may work. But by having a well-rounded team you can protect yourself against injuries, inconsistency, and general lousy play. This way any one of your players can have a bad year and your team won’t suffer that much. If Jose Reyes doesn’t end up with the stolen bases you were expecting, your team is in bad shape.

Early in a draft I try to get well-rounded players who won’t hurt me in any category and the same goes for allocating my cash during an auction. Essentially – I’m always striving to get guys who steal a few bases, hit homeruns, and score and drive in runs. Think of it as having your cake and eating it, too. You’ll have more room for error, and build a better team, which is the point of this game.

Good all around threats:
Early Rounds/Costly in auctions: David Wright, Jimmy Rollins, Hanley Ramirez
Middle Range: Bobby Abreu, Rickie Weeks, Nick Markakis
Lower Range: Nate McLouth, Adrian Beltre, Jeremy Hermida (a sleeper for SBs)

Chris,
Like it or not, stolen bases have a place in most fantasy baseball leagues. I often find it difficult finding stolen bases in my auctions and drafts at a price I’m willing to pay. When I play in H2H leagues, I generally sacrifice the category and hope to dominate the other hitting categories each week. Unfortunately, this option is not always viable in rotisserie leagues and some points and even some H2H leagues.

First the statistics: nineteen major league baseball players had thirty or more steals last year. Forty-two had twenty or more steals. Twenty-six MLB players had thirty or more homeruns. Eighty-six players had twenty or more homeruns. As you can see, stolen bases are at a premium in fantasy baseball, but a team cannot win by collecting stolen bases alone.

Stolen bases are just one category that you need to compete in, but they come at a steep price. Most basestealers are weak in other categories (HR, RBI, OBP, and especially SLG/OPS). Of the nineteen players who stole thirty or more bases last year, only six hit twenty or more homeruns: Hanley Ramirez, Eric Byrnes, Jimmy Rollins, David Wright, Grady Sizemore, and Brandon Phillips. And of the twenty-six players who hit thirty or more homeruns, only six stole twenty or more bases: Alex Rodriguez, Carlos Beltran, Chris B. Young, Brandon Phillips, Jimmy Rollins, and David Wright.

So what does this all mean? Well, unless you get one of the first three picks or are willing to shell out one-sixth of your budget, you’re not getting Alex Rodriguez and his 40+ HR and 20+ SB. The same can be said about Hanley Ramirez. David Wright and Jimmy Rollins, who should be first round picks this year. And I would expect that the remaining players on these lists wouldn’t slip much past the third or fourth round in your draft.

I love the IDEA of grabbing as many 30-30/40-20/20-40 types as you can and plugging them into your lineup. But the point is that there are very few players in this mold, and your budget/draft will prohibit you from grabbing many of them. Say you grab David Wright in the first round of your draft, Brandon Phillips in the second round, Carlos Beltran in the third, and Eric Byrnes in the fourth round. You’ll be able to count on 110 HR and about 120 SB out of these guys as long as they stay healthy over the course of 2008. But you won’t have that one guy who’ll dominate a single category.

You could argue that it is more important to get stolen bases out of everyone on your roster, and hope that the sum total of these stolen bases will amount to something. Again, the cost is significant. Russell Martin will be a third round pick (at worst) in most fantasy baseball drafts this year because he put up 19 HR and 21 SB last year. Those numbers are fantastic in general, and as a catcher, they are unbelievable. But what happens if Martin’s stolen base numbers decline this year? If he gets 13 SB instead of last year’s 21, would you be happy with him as a third round pick? I didn’t think so. And if someone else has the same idea and beats you to Martin, are you going to pay a premium for Joe Mauer’s seven stolen bases? If you can take Jorge Posada (and his 8 years in a row of 19 or more HR) five rounds later, you can spend the third round pick on one of those elusive 30+ HR guys or an ace starting pitcher. And let’s be honest, there are very few viable catchers, first basemen, and even third basemen (save Rodriguez, Wright, and Braun) that can contribute in SB and the power categories.

The real key here is to identify individuals that can help you compete in stolen bases without damaging the rest of your offensive categories. An easy way to do this is by not starting your stolen base threats every day (if in a daily transaction league) or every week (if in a weekly transaction league). This way you can stay just competitive enough in the stolen base categories to win the league with your otherwise superior hitting. You’ll need to get plenty of thumpers to dominate the power categories, and the “right” thumpers can even keep you very competitive in average and runs scored (they’ll often dominate in OBP/SLG leagues). If you are in a daily league, you could have a standard Monday/Thursday start for one of your stolen base guys. When your slugger is traveling to his next location, you might as well make the best of the guys you do have to start (especially in leagues with no maximum games played at a position). Just don’t leave yourself in a position that you need to leave Travis Hafner on the bench during his regular August explosion because you need to gain ground in stolen bases.

Here are some players that I think you can “steal” in the late rounds of your draft that will keep you competitive in stolen bases.

Rajai Davis (OF- San Francisco) – Here is my favorite stolen base sleeper of the year. In 192 AB last year, he stole 22 bases. It’s not like the Giants are going to be any good this year, so he could see plenty of action this season. If this is the case, a 45+ stolen base season is not out of the question.

Michael Bourn (OF- Houston) – This kid has absolutely blazing speed and will have Hunter Pence and Carlos Lee hitting behind him. When he wins the starting CF job in Houston (most likely out of spring training), pick him up and expect Juan Pierre type numbers for less than half the price.

Cameron Maybin (OF- Florida) - May be in over his head in Florida this year, but deep keeper and dynasty league owners should be all over him for his power-speed potential.

Jacoby Ellsbury (OF- Red Sox) - You’ve got to love the way he plays the game. His speed will be under-utilized in Boston (organizational philosophy), but if he’s traded for Johan Santana, grab him for his stolen base potential.

Brian Barton (OF- Cardinals) - This proverbial “tool-shed” has a good chance of sticking on the Cardinals 25-man roster. As he is a Rule 5 draftee, watch his spring training closely. If he looks like he’ll win the CF job in St. Louis (now that Jim Edmonds is in San Diego), take him with your last pick in your draft. If he makes the club as a reserve outfielder, think about him in very deep mixed leagues or NL-only leagues.

Carlos Gomez (OF- Mets) – If he gets ABs, he’ll get the SB you’ll need. He’ll eventually develop power numbers that’ll make him a top speed/power player.

Nate McLouth (OF- Pirates) – McLouth hit 10 HR and stole 16 bases after August 1st last season in just 169 AB. If he plays regularly, he is a first-class sleeper.

In leagues that delve into the minors, here are some talents (most are obvious) to keep your eyes on:

Adam Jones, Mariners OF (Power/Speed)
Colby Rasmus, Cardinals OF (Power/Speed)
Andrew McCutchen, Pirates OF (Speed/Power)
Desmond Jennings, Rays OF (Speed)
Gorkys Hernandez, Braves OF (Speed)
Dexter Fowler, Rockies OF (Speed)
Drew Stubbs, Reds OF (Speed/Power)
Jordan Schafer, Braves OF (Speed/Power)
Emilio Bonifacio, Diamondbacks MI (Speed)

Sure Chris, if you get the chance to take one of the elite power/speed guys, I say go for it, but if you miss out, I think you shouldn’t reach for an elite stolen base talent (Jose Reyes, Carl Crawford, Juan Pierre). Instead, grab a sleeper or two and use as needed. Remember that you need to draft (or bid) based upon your league type. In rotisserie leagues, you need to stay competitive in every category, but in H2H or even some points leagues, you can often sacrifice a category and still dominate your league.

Well, Chris and Joe have provided you with two different views on your fantasy baseball stolen base strategy. We both agree that the elite stolen base talents are overvalued, but while Chris says that you can stay competitive in stolen bases by getting players at (most) every position that contribute in the category, Joe says that you should instead invest in “sleeper” basestealers to try to get that necessary contribution. Until next time, this is a fantasy baseball faceoff.