Thursday, January 29, 2009
Thursday, January 22, 2009
The Power of Consistency, Part Three of Three
Originally posted July 2, 2008
Chris,
I love the first parts of your analysis, and because I’m a total engineering nerd, I’m going to continue this statistics festival, but before I do, I want to say that before I read anything you did, I thought I’d be better off with consistent players. We’ll see if this holds true with my analysis.
First of all I’m going to use a random number generator to determine a category to analyze in an 18 team 6X6 H2H baseball league. The randomly generated category to look at was found to be RBI. This year (through 10 weeks), the lowest total RBI total by any team is 196. The highest is 339. The best record by any team in this category is 9-1-0. The worst record is 1-8-1. Surprisingly the team with the lowest RBI total does not have the worst weekly record nor does the team with the highest RBI total have the best weekly record. Here is a breakdown of RBI (through 10 weeks) by team and corresponding record.
Team W L
T Total
Red Sox
9 1
0
315
Giants 7 3 0 299
Blue Jays
7 3 0 298
Yankees 7 3 0 339
Cardinals 6 4 0 308
Rays 6 4 0 249
Royals 5 5 0 261
Braves 5 5 0 264
Orioles 5 5 0 278
Mets 5 5 0 279
Tigers 4 5 1 252
Angels 4 5 1 256
Brewers 4 6 0 236
Rangers 4 6 0 268
Athletics 4 6 0 216
Twins 3 7 0 196
Marlins 2 7 1 242
Phillies 1 8 1 205
What I’m curious about, and what remains unanswered, is how a team that averages 33.9 RBI per week (the Yankees in the table above) will compare to his common opponents for the year (they have averaged 26.8 RBI per week). Here are the weekly results for the Yankees:
Week Yankees Opponent Outcome
1
26 35 L
2 40 20 W
3 48 25 W
4 28 35 L
5 45 37 W
6 27 8 W
7 27 43 L
8 40 26 W
9 27 25 W
10 31 14 W
Note that the Yankees have the highest RBI total this year to date, but they have lost two more games than the leader in the category, the Red Sox, who are 9-1-0 so far. You can see that on the three occasions that the Yankees lost, they had fewer than their average RBI in that week. There, that proves it, it is better to get consistent performance out of your players than streakiness.
Ok, so I’m actually not ready to conclude that consistency is the winning way yet, instead, I’ll have to do a little more investigating first. I did an analysis of all players with 14 or more ABs in one week and found out that the average player in a week would have three RBI in twenty-two at-bats. If we had a team that gave us 220 ABs in one week (representing starters and irregular backups on a nine position fantasy offense, we can assume they will produce 30 RBI on average. Certainly, the more data we use the more statistically relevant our data will be, but for now we can assume that we will compare three different teams, the average Yankee team, the league average team , and the average Yankee opponent. Even though this is not necessarily true, we will assume that each actual team (ours and each opponent) will produce their average RBI in 220 at-bats (we’ll come back to this assumption later). Note that when we are building these teams, we are still assuming that all players are equally capable of producing an RBI in an at-bat. In reality, we know that someone like Alex Rodriguez is more likely to have opportunities to drive in runs (and is perhaps even more likely to succeed in doing so) than say, Brad Ausmus. But to make this analysis possible, we have to make some assumptions! In order to dig deeper into this investigation, I’ve decided that when comparing the three teams, we will look at what happens when these three teams play each other. Before I do that, I will assume that our data will follow a normal distribution ( I used http://davidmlane.com/hyperstat/z_table.html to get my probabilities). This means that we are assuming that the most frequent RBI total will be the average for each player on that team and that the further away from that average value, the lower the probability a player has of actually producing that number of RBI in a week. Because a player cannot have a negative RBI total, you will see that there is a significant possibility that a player will have 0 RBI in a week. Here are the three probability tables for the “average players involved” using the standard deviation generated over those 745 RBI in 5404 AB (the weekly RBI total of the players with 14 or more AB).
Probability a Representative Player Will Have a Weekly RBI:
RBI Avg Yank
Avg Opponent Avg Team
0 7.64 13.90 13.4
1 8.40 11.95 11.7
2 12.88 15.80 15.7
3 16.36 17.30 17.3
4 17.21 15.69 15.8
5 15.01 11.80 12.0
6 10.85 7.35 7.6
7 6.49 3.80 3.9
8 3.22 1.62 1.7
9 1.32 0.58 0.6
10 0.45 0.17 0.2
11 0.13 0.04 0.04
12 0.03 0.008 0.01
13 0.006 0.001 0.0015
14+ 0.0008 0.0002 0.0003
As you can see, the average Yankee hitter has a better chance of producing four or more RBI in a week and a lower chance of producing three or fewer RBI in a week. What is striking to me is the very low probability of a Yankee player producing 0 RBI in a week, it is almost half that of either of the other teams. In order to get data by which I can compare these teams, I have used a random number generator to randomly assign an RBI total for each position on each team (only Yankees and opponents) for each of the ten weeks. The total RBI for the team was then tallied and compared to each other team’s actual and average weeks. Here are the results:
Week Actual Yankees Sim Yanks Avg Yanks Actual Opponent Sim Opp. Avg Opp.
1 26 32 34 35 38 27
2 40 29 34 20 28 27
3 48 29 34 25 39 27
4 28 24 34 35 24 27
5 45 32 34 37 24 27
6 27 38 34 8 29 27
7 27 22 34 43 17 27
8 40 40 34 26 33 27
9 27 54 34 25 37 27
10 31 32 34 14 31 27
The resulting records for each opponent vs. the field would be:
Week Actual Yanks Sim Yanks Avg Yanks Actual Opp. Sim Opp. Avg Opp.
1 0-5-0 2-3-0 3-2-0 4-1-0 5-0-0 1-4-0
2 5-0-0 3-2-0 4-1-0 0-5-0 2-3-0 1-4-0
3 5-0-0 2-3-0 3-2-0 0-5-0 4-1-0 1-4-0
4 3-2-0 0-4-1 4-1-0 5-0-0 0-4-1 2-3-0
5 5-0-0 2-3-0 3-2-0 4-1-0 0-5-0 1-4-0
6 1-3-1 5-0-0 4-1-0 0-5-0 2-3-0 1-3-1
7 2-2-1 1-4-0 4-1-0 5-0-0 0-5-0 2-2-1
8 4-0-1 4-0-1 3-2-0 0-5-0 2-3-0 1-4-0
9 1-3-1 5-0-0 3-2-0 0-5-0 4-1-0 1-3-1
10 2-2-1 4-1-0 5-0-0 0-5-0 2-2-1 1-4-0
This yields an overall record vs. the field of:
Actual Yankees
28-17-5
Sim Yankees
28-20-2
Average Yankees
36-14-0
Actual Opponent
18-32-0
Sim Opponent
21-27-2
Average Opponent
12-35-3
If summarized a bit differently:
Actual Teams
46-49-5
Sim Teams
49-47-4
Average Teams
48-49-3
This doesn’t seem like much of a difference overall, though it would have nice to have had my average productivity rather than my actual performance. It would have also been nice to see my opponents put up an average performance rather than their actual performance, although I might have caught a break by playing the actual opponent each week rather than the simulation opponent. That being said, I think it’s more important to look at each team’s record versus each other team to get more perspective on the issue.
Actual Yankees
Sim Yankees Average Yankees Actual Opponent Sim Opponent Average Opponent
Actual Yankees
5-4-1 4-6-0 7-3-0 6-3-1 6-1-3
Sim Yankees
4-5-1 3-7-0 6-4-0 7-2-1 9-1-0
Average Yankees
6-4-0 7-3-0 6-4-0 7-3-0 10-0-0
Actual Opponent
3-7-0 4-6-0 4-6-0 3-7-0 6-4-0
Sim Opponent
3-6-1 2-7-1 3-7-0 7-3-0 3-7-0
Average Opponent
1-6-3 1-9-0 0-10-0 4-6-0 7-3-0
If you look on the vertical axis, you can see a team’s record (over the 10 weeks) against the other teams. On the horizontal axis, then, is the opposition’s record against the selected team. For example, if I look at the third row and fifth column of this chart, I find the record of the average Yankee team vs. the simulated opponent.
Does all of this data reveal everything? I’m not quite sure. It sure looks like over the course of a season a team that has poor totals in a category will generally lose that category in a head-to-head matchup to a team with superior totals in that category. I do see that the actual Yankee team has a better record than the simulation or average total would predict. Likewise, the actual opponent has a better record than the simulation or average total would have predicted. So I guess what I’m trying to say is: I’ll take my actual totals every week and not worry about consistency.
I promised a short explanation of why we should not assume that we can just take the average RBI total for our team and our opponents and use them for this analysis. The summary is that every team is different, so technically, I should produce a normal distribution of data for each team, then perform simulations for each team on each week (rather than clumping all of my opponents into one typical opponent). While technically more accurate, this type of analysis would take much more time than I’m willing to invest at this point of time. The data provided convinces me that I need not worry about consistency too much when putting together my team. Finally, not only do we see that every team is different, but we also find that each team can be very different in a given week. Injuries, days off, and owner changes can influence the players producing those RBI for a team. One thing I can be certain of is that you should maximize your RBI chances by having viable backups for as many positions as possible in leagues that let you make daily substitutions. If you are concerned with your peripheral statistics (batting average, on-base percentage, and/or slugging percentage) then perhaps you can focus on getting backups with good peripherals and take your chances on the accumulated stats (runs, homeruns, RBI, stolen bases).
Chris, it took some time, but I think this analysis is going to be helpful when I put together teams in the future. I hope you agree.
Chris,
I love the first parts of your analysis, and because I’m a total engineering nerd, I’m going to continue this statistics festival, but before I do, I want to say that before I read anything you did, I thought I’d be better off with consistent players. We’ll see if this holds true with my analysis.
First of all I’m going to use a random number generator to determine a category to analyze in an 18 team 6X6 H2H baseball league. The randomly generated category to look at was found to be RBI. This year (through 10 weeks), the lowest total RBI total by any team is 196. The highest is 339. The best record by any team in this category is 9-1-0. The worst record is 1-8-1. Surprisingly the team with the lowest RBI total does not have the worst weekly record nor does the team with the highest RBI total have the best weekly record. Here is a breakdown of RBI (through 10 weeks) by team and corresponding record.
Team W L
T Total
Red Sox
9 1
0
315
Giants 7 3 0 299
Blue Jays
7 3 0 298
Yankees 7 3 0 339
Cardinals 6 4 0 308
Rays 6 4 0 249
Royals 5 5 0 261
Braves 5 5 0 264
Orioles 5 5 0 278
Mets 5 5 0 279
Tigers 4 5 1 252
Angels 4 5 1 256
Brewers 4 6 0 236
Rangers 4 6 0 268
Athletics 4 6 0 216
Twins 3 7 0 196
Marlins 2 7 1 242
Phillies 1 8 1 205
What I’m curious about, and what remains unanswered, is how a team that averages 33.9 RBI per week (the Yankees in the table above) will compare to his common opponents for the year (they have averaged 26.8 RBI per week). Here are the weekly results for the Yankees:
Week Yankees Opponent Outcome
1
26 35 L
2 40 20 W
3 48 25 W
4 28 35 L
5 45 37 W
6 27 8 W
7 27 43 L
8 40 26 W
9 27 25 W
10 31 14 W
Note that the Yankees have the highest RBI total this year to date, but they have lost two more games than the leader in the category, the Red Sox, who are 9-1-0 so far. You can see that on the three occasions that the Yankees lost, they had fewer than their average RBI in that week. There, that proves it, it is better to get consistent performance out of your players than streakiness.
Ok, so I’m actually not ready to conclude that consistency is the winning way yet, instead, I’ll have to do a little more investigating first. I did an analysis of all players with 14 or more ABs in one week and found out that the average player in a week would have three RBI in twenty-two at-bats. If we had a team that gave us 220 ABs in one week (representing starters and irregular backups on a nine position fantasy offense, we can assume they will produce 30 RBI on average. Certainly, the more data we use the more statistically relevant our data will be, but for now we can assume that we will compare three different teams, the average Yankee team, the league average team , and the average Yankee opponent. Even though this is not necessarily true, we will assume that each actual team (ours and each opponent) will produce their average RBI in 220 at-bats (we’ll come back to this assumption later). Note that when we are building these teams, we are still assuming that all players are equally capable of producing an RBI in an at-bat. In reality, we know that someone like Alex Rodriguez is more likely to have opportunities to drive in runs (and is perhaps even more likely to succeed in doing so) than say, Brad Ausmus. But to make this analysis possible, we have to make some assumptions! In order to dig deeper into this investigation, I’ve decided that when comparing the three teams, we will look at what happens when these three teams play each other. Before I do that, I will assume that our data will follow a normal distribution ( I used http://davidmlane.com/hyperstat/z_table.html to get my probabilities). This means that we are assuming that the most frequent RBI total will be the average for each player on that team and that the further away from that average value, the lower the probability a player has of actually producing that number of RBI in a week. Because a player cannot have a negative RBI total, you will see that there is a significant possibility that a player will have 0 RBI in a week. Here are the three probability tables for the “average players involved” using the standard deviation generated over those 745 RBI in 5404 AB (the weekly RBI total of the players with 14 or more AB).
Probability a Representative Player Will Have a Weekly RBI:
RBI Avg Yank
Avg Opponent Avg Team
0 7.64 13.90 13.4
1 8.40 11.95 11.7
2 12.88 15.80 15.7
3 16.36 17.30 17.3
4 17.21 15.69 15.8
5 15.01 11.80 12.0
6 10.85 7.35 7.6
7 6.49 3.80 3.9
8 3.22 1.62 1.7
9 1.32 0.58 0.6
10 0.45 0.17 0.2
11 0.13 0.04 0.04
12 0.03 0.008 0.01
13 0.006 0.001 0.0015
14+ 0.0008 0.0002 0.0003
As you can see, the average Yankee hitter has a better chance of producing four or more RBI in a week and a lower chance of producing three or fewer RBI in a week. What is striking to me is the very low probability of a Yankee player producing 0 RBI in a week, it is almost half that of either of the other teams. In order to get data by which I can compare these teams, I have used a random number generator to randomly assign an RBI total for each position on each team (only Yankees and opponents) for each of the ten weeks. The total RBI for the team was then tallied and compared to each other team’s actual and average weeks. Here are the results:
Week Actual Yankees Sim Yanks Avg Yanks Actual Opponent Sim Opp. Avg Opp.
1 26 32 34 35 38 27
2 40 29 34 20 28 27
3 48 29 34 25 39 27
4 28 24 34 35 24 27
5 45 32 34 37 24 27
6 27 38 34 8 29 27
7 27 22 34 43 17 27
8 40 40 34 26 33 27
9 27 54 34 25 37 27
10 31 32 34 14 31 27
The resulting records for each opponent vs. the field would be:
Week Actual Yanks Sim Yanks Avg Yanks Actual Opp. Sim Opp. Avg Opp.
1 0-5-0 2-3-0 3-2-0 4-1-0 5-0-0 1-4-0
2 5-0-0 3-2-0 4-1-0 0-5-0 2-3-0 1-4-0
3 5-0-0 2-3-0 3-2-0 0-5-0 4-1-0 1-4-0
4 3-2-0 0-4-1 4-1-0 5-0-0 0-4-1 2-3-0
5 5-0-0 2-3-0 3-2-0 4-1-0 0-5-0 1-4-0
6 1-3-1 5-0-0 4-1-0 0-5-0 2-3-0 1-3-1
7 2-2-1 1-4-0 4-1-0 5-0-0 0-5-0 2-2-1
8 4-0-1 4-0-1 3-2-0 0-5-0 2-3-0 1-4-0
9 1-3-1 5-0-0 3-2-0 0-5-0 4-1-0 1-3-1
10 2-2-1 4-1-0 5-0-0 0-5-0 2-2-1 1-4-0
This yields an overall record vs. the field of:
Actual Yankees
28-17-5
Sim Yankees
28-20-2
Average Yankees
36-14-0
Actual Opponent
18-32-0
Sim Opponent
21-27-2
Average Opponent
12-35-3
If summarized a bit differently:
Actual Teams
46-49-5
Sim Teams
49-47-4
Average Teams
48-49-3
This doesn’t seem like much of a difference overall, though it would have nice to have had my average productivity rather than my actual performance. It would have also been nice to see my opponents put up an average performance rather than their actual performance, although I might have caught a break by playing the actual opponent each week rather than the simulation opponent. That being said, I think it’s more important to look at each team’s record versus each other team to get more perspective on the issue.
Actual Yankees
Sim Yankees Average Yankees Actual Opponent Sim Opponent Average Opponent
Actual Yankees
5-4-1 4-6-0 7-3-0 6-3-1 6-1-3
Sim Yankees
4-5-1 3-7-0 6-4-0 7-2-1 9-1-0
Average Yankees
6-4-0 7-3-0 6-4-0 7-3-0 10-0-0
Actual Opponent
3-7-0 4-6-0 4-6-0 3-7-0 6-4-0
Sim Opponent
3-6-1 2-7-1 3-7-0 7-3-0 3-7-0
Average Opponent
1-6-3 1-9-0 0-10-0 4-6-0 7-3-0
If you look on the vertical axis, you can see a team’s record (over the 10 weeks) against the other teams. On the horizontal axis, then, is the opposition’s record against the selected team. For example, if I look at the third row and fifth column of this chart, I find the record of the average Yankee team vs. the simulated opponent.
Does all of this data reveal everything? I’m not quite sure. It sure looks like over the course of a season a team that has poor totals in a category will generally lose that category in a head-to-head matchup to a team with superior totals in that category. I do see that the actual Yankee team has a better record than the simulation or average total would predict. Likewise, the actual opponent has a better record than the simulation or average total would have predicted. So I guess what I’m trying to say is: I’ll take my actual totals every week and not worry about consistency.
I promised a short explanation of why we should not assume that we can just take the average RBI total for our team and our opponents and use them for this analysis. The summary is that every team is different, so technically, I should produce a normal distribution of data for each team, then perform simulations for each team on each week (rather than clumping all of my opponents into one typical opponent). While technically more accurate, this type of analysis would take much more time than I’m willing to invest at this point of time. The data provided convinces me that I need not worry about consistency too much when putting together my team. Finally, not only do we see that every team is different, but we also find that each team can be very different in a given week. Injuries, days off, and owner changes can influence the players producing those RBI for a team. One thing I can be certain of is that you should maximize your RBI chances by having viable backups for as many positions as possible in leagues that let you make daily substitutions. If you are concerned with your peripheral statistics (batting average, on-base percentage, and/or slugging percentage) then perhaps you can focus on getting backups with good peripherals and take your chances on the accumulated stats (runs, homeruns, RBI, stolen bases).
Chris, it took some time, but I think this analysis is going to be helpful when I put together teams in the future. I hope you agree.
Power Of Consistency Part II
Originally posted June 21, 2008
Part Two of Three
My previous article detailed an experiment investigating the conventional wisdom that favors consistent hitters over streaky sluggers for Head-to-Head leagues. Click here to read that article if you missed it.
Last time the experiment showed little evidence to confirm the sensible-sounding idea that you want to skip over streaky hitters for your head to head league team. The conditions of the experiment were rather artificial and unrealistic, despite the novel ideas they demonstrated. No player plods along hitting a single dinger each week, just as no one “saves up” all four of his homers to spit out once every four weeks in chunks of four.
Therefore, I thought a different type of experiment was in order. Let’s make it a bit more realistic and base the number of home runs on weekly team output. I decided to define a bunch of different teams – starting with consistent teams that always hit 9 home runs in a week, and add variation with teams that hit between 8 and 10, between 7 and 11, etc., until we get to a terribly inconsistent team who’s output in any week can range from 0 to 18.
Thanks to the magic of random.org, it is possible, even easy, to produce massive lists of random numbers within a range that you define. I made lists of 2,600 random numbers (100 Head to Head league seasons) according to each condition, pasted it into a spreadsheet, and then let the program do team by team comparisons for me.
What I ended up with is shown in the table below (I didn't run all the match ups, focusing primarily on teams E and F):
Team (HR range)
Avg. W vs A W vs B W vs C W vs D W vs E W vs F W vs G
Team A (9)
9 0 1213 1219 1228
Team B (8-10)
8.987 0 1215 1217
Team C (7-11)
9.01 0 1235 1204 1216
Team D (6-12)
8.999 0 1214 1221
Team E (0-18)
8.995 1246 1252
1235 1251 0 1220 1205
Team F (0-18)
9.12 1249 1245 1257 1252 1242 0 1253
Team G (3-15)
8.95 1170 1157 1240 1207 0
I can’t say I’m shocked with the results. I think this comparison shows that the effect of consistency is either insignificant – or left to random chance of match-ups. I see no real pattern in how teams perform against each other, so it is difficult to deduce any hard truths from the results, except that again, we see a seemingly insignificant or negative correlation with consistency. Below are a few comments on the results:
• Team F has a very high average (9.12) and performs very well against all comers, but you would expect that given that high average. Less easily explained is Team E’s performance. They did very well against most teams (almost as well as Team F), despite having a similar (if not lower) average than their opponents.
• Just to be clear – I think that if you simulated enough “weeks” the average would get closer to 9 for every team. It looks like 100 seasons may not have been enough to reach that point. But the similarity between the records of Teams E and F suggests that an inconsistent team may be better over the long haul.
• Team G performed poorly against teams A and C, but much better against team E. That’s one result that I don’t understand. It seems fluky. G does have the lowest overall average among these teams, so maybe that is the main reason for the wild discrepancy in team G’s performance against teams E and F.
• Even the biggest difference between our hypothetical teams is 59 “wins,” which is only one-half win per season. Both of those deficits were achieved by the G team – which coincidentally happened to have the lowest average of any of the teams.
I think that this experiment is as interesting as the previous one. Maybe I’m right and the distribution is no big deal. Or maybe my method remains too unrealistic. I might have to look around and figure out how to play around with what statisticians call a normal distribution, also known as a bell curve. That may be the best way to tackle this problem of inconsistency in head to head leagues.
But until then, I think we can say that it isn’t worth making a point of worrying about consistency. Now, Joe, it’s your turn to weigh in on this topic. Am I full of it? Should fantasy owners take consistency into account when building their teams? I still think that anyone who says so has a burden to prove that consistency can be predicted. I’m not so sure it is. Robinson Cano was pretty good in April of 2006, even though he started really slowly in 2007 and 2008. CC Sabathia has had solid Aprils as well as lousy ones.
In any case – even as a purely academic exercise, I think it’s been interesting. Readers are the true judges, however. Please get in touch with us – email us at baseballfaceoff@gmail.com, chat in the forums. We love it when our readers question us or comment on our articles. And if you have a question about another topic, please ask – we’re collecting good ones for our first-ever mailbag column.
All right, Joe, after some 3,000+ words, I guess it’s your turn.
Part Two of Three
My previous article detailed an experiment investigating the conventional wisdom that favors consistent hitters over streaky sluggers for Head-to-Head leagues. Click here to read that article if you missed it.
Last time the experiment showed little evidence to confirm the sensible-sounding idea that you want to skip over streaky hitters for your head to head league team. The conditions of the experiment were rather artificial and unrealistic, despite the novel ideas they demonstrated. No player plods along hitting a single dinger each week, just as no one “saves up” all four of his homers to spit out once every four weeks in chunks of four.
Therefore, I thought a different type of experiment was in order. Let’s make it a bit more realistic and base the number of home runs on weekly team output. I decided to define a bunch of different teams – starting with consistent teams that always hit 9 home runs in a week, and add variation with teams that hit between 8 and 10, between 7 and 11, etc., until we get to a terribly inconsistent team who’s output in any week can range from 0 to 18.
Thanks to the magic of random.org, it is possible, even easy, to produce massive lists of random numbers within a range that you define. I made lists of 2,600 random numbers (100 Head to Head league seasons) according to each condition, pasted it into a spreadsheet, and then let the program do team by team comparisons for me.
What I ended up with is shown in the table below (I didn't run all the match ups, focusing primarily on teams E and F):
Team (HR range)
Avg. W vs A W vs B W vs C W vs D W vs E W vs F W vs G
Team A (9)
9 0 1213 1219 1228
Team B (8-10)
8.987 0 1215 1217
Team C (7-11)
9.01 0 1235 1204 1216
Team D (6-12)
8.999 0 1214 1221
Team E (0-18)
8.995 1246 1252
1235 1251 0 1220 1205
Team F (0-18)
9.12 1249 1245 1257 1252 1242 0 1253
Team G (3-15)
8.95 1170 1157 1240 1207 0
I can’t say I’m shocked with the results. I think this comparison shows that the effect of consistency is either insignificant – or left to random chance of match-ups. I see no real pattern in how teams perform against each other, so it is difficult to deduce any hard truths from the results, except that again, we see a seemingly insignificant or negative correlation with consistency. Below are a few comments on the results:
• Team F has a very high average (9.12) and performs very well against all comers, but you would expect that given that high average. Less easily explained is Team E’s performance. They did very well against most teams (almost as well as Team F), despite having a similar (if not lower) average than their opponents.
• Just to be clear – I think that if you simulated enough “weeks” the average would get closer to 9 for every team. It looks like 100 seasons may not have been enough to reach that point. But the similarity between the records of Teams E and F suggests that an inconsistent team may be better over the long haul.
• Team G performed poorly against teams A and C, but much better against team E. That’s one result that I don’t understand. It seems fluky. G does have the lowest overall average among these teams, so maybe that is the main reason for the wild discrepancy in team G’s performance against teams E and F.
• Even the biggest difference between our hypothetical teams is 59 “wins,” which is only one-half win per season. Both of those deficits were achieved by the G team – which coincidentally happened to have the lowest average of any of the teams.
I think that this experiment is as interesting as the previous one. Maybe I’m right and the distribution is no big deal. Or maybe my method remains too unrealistic. I might have to look around and figure out how to play around with what statisticians call a normal distribution, also known as a bell curve. That may be the best way to tackle this problem of inconsistency in head to head leagues.
But until then, I think we can say that it isn’t worth making a point of worrying about consistency. Now, Joe, it’s your turn to weigh in on this topic. Am I full of it? Should fantasy owners take consistency into account when building their teams? I still think that anyone who says so has a burden to prove that consistency can be predicted. I’m not so sure it is. Robinson Cano was pretty good in April of 2006, even though he started really slowly in 2007 and 2008. CC Sabathia has had solid Aprils as well as lousy ones.
In any case – even as a purely academic exercise, I think it’s been interesting. Readers are the true judges, however. Please get in touch with us – email us at baseballfaceoff@gmail.com, chat in the forums. We love it when our readers question us or comment on our articles. And if you have a question about another topic, please ask – we’re collecting good ones for our first-ever mailbag column.
All right, Joe, after some 3,000+ words, I guess it’s your turn.
Power Of Consistency
Originally posted June 9, 2008
Posted By Chris
This week Joe and I are going to tackle an issue that comes up from time to time in fantasy advice columns: should fantasy owners seek out consistent performers over streaky players when assembling head-to-head league teams? Whenever I’ve heard someone say that – I figure, yeah, that sounds like a pretty good idea. But I never looked at it in detail. It feels like it would be a good idea to grab guys who will produce consistently throughout the year, rather than hitters who alternate slumps and streaks. If your team produces consistent numbers week after week, it will be able to compete every week and you won’t have to worry about weeks when your team struggles to put up a line like 12 runs /2 HR/ 9 RBI / 1 steal / .202 Avg.
Nobody wants to have a team that will lay an egg every few weeks. But is the fear of a rough week a good reason to avoid streaky players? Do you value a player less if he traditionally starts slowly, or if his production drops like a rock every August 1st? Do you believe your team is better off with players that produce consistently, or with guys who are streaky and produce unpredictably throughout the year? These are the questions that should be examined – and will be in this Face Off.
For this round Joe and I will discuss how each of us plans for head to head leagues and recommend strategies to help you put together a better team – for now, and when next year’s draft comes around.
My assumption has always been that there are many attributes to weigh when considering players for head to head league teams. Streakiness is not one of them. I always thought it was just too much work to worry about it. My hope was that uneven production would even itself out with good weeks to make up for the bad ones.
For example, you never know if your team will need to get two or seven saves in a given week to win the category. They will happen when they happen. You do know that if you have three closers likely to save 30 games, and most teams in your league have just one or two, that your team should win the category quite often. There is always a chance that your three closer team will only pick up two saves some week, and your opponent’s lone closer will pick up three or four, beating you in a category that you expected to win. This makes head-to-head leagues unpredictable and, for some people, frustrating.
But then again, baseball is unpredictable. The best team doesn’t always win. The best players make outs in more than two-thirds of their attempts. Sluggers become legendary despite failing to hit home runs in more than 90 percent of their at bats. Because positive outcomes are rare, it is relatively common for overmatched teams to pull out victories, I, for one, deeply enjoy this aspect of random chance that comes up in head to head leagues.
With roto leagues it doesn’t matter when your players accumulate their stats. Any homer goes into the homer pile; the team with the biggest pile at the end of the year wins the category. In a head-to-head league, the ideal situation would be to have a team that rations its homers to accumulate one more than your opponent every week, and holds onto extras for the next time you need them, like roll-over minutes.
I think the best idea advice is: don’t worry about it. Go for players who will accumulate the best stats over the course of the year, regardless of the type of league. I can see an argument for avoiding players who consistently tire down the stretch in a league where there are playoffs in September, but I’m not convinced it’s worth worrying about. Primarily because I’m not sure these kinds of trends can be predicted with accuracy.
Before you email to tell me what an idiot I am, think about the assumptions that must be true to justify seeking only consistent players. The first assumption is that any trends you can find in past performance will be repeated this year. This is not trivial – for instance, statisticians have a difficult time proving the existence of clutch hitters, by any metric you want to choose. It may seem obvious that Player X is a great clutch hitter (David Ortiz, Derek Jeter, whoever you like), but your memory might emphasize successes and forget the failures. Secondly, you have to prove that consistency is actually a better outcome than feast or famine. That’s what I want to talk about in the second part of this article. I did a little experiment and the results are downright shocking.
EXPERIMENT 1: Examining the Concept
I performed some calculations to measure what really happens when you have streaky home run hitters on your team. First, the assumptions of this experiment: Because there are 26 weeks in a baseball season, I based my calculations on players who hit an average of 26 homers a year, or one per week. I broke this down into two types of players, those who hit one homer every week, and those who hit four home runs in a week, but just once every four weeks on average. This works out to be basically the same number of home runs over the course of a season. Obviously, neither of these hypothetical players is based on someone real - no one is this consistently this streaky - but I thought the results would be enlightening.
The “control group” of consistent players hit one home run every week, for a total of three homers each week. To me the question is – does a set of three inconsistent players hit more than three home runs more weeks than not? Because if they do, that would suggest that there’s no need to worry about the kind of consistency some people seek out.
The first thing I did was to run the probabilities for a set of three players, all the type of player who hits four homers in one week, at a rate of once every four weeks. The likelihood that a given player would hit his four home runs is one in four. The likelihood that he wouldn’t hit any is three in four. The likelihood that all three would hit zero home runs in a given week is ¾ times ¾ times ¾, equal to 27/64, or 42.2 percent.
The chances that Player A would hit his four when none of the others do is ¼ times ¾ times ¾ for a total of 9/64, or about 14 percent. The same rate holds for Player B or Player C smashing his four bombs while his teammates flounder. That means it works that there’s also a 42 percent chance that this “team” would hit four home runs in a week.
The chances that Players A and B would hit their four on the same week that C hits none is ¼ times ¼ times ¾, or 3/64, 4.7 percent. The same rate is true if the pair that hits homers are A and C or B and C. The chances that all three hit them at the same time is 1 in 64, or very low – 1.6 percent.
To review, 42 percent of the time this mini-team will hit zero home runs. But 58 percent of the time they will hit four or more. About 16 percent of the time (once every six weeks!) they’ll hit eight or more.
Remember, the team you are trying to defeat always hits three homers a week. This means that more often than not, your team of streaky players should beat the team of consistent players. I’ll have to admit that this surprised me quite a bit. And it prompted me to do even more math. I ran the same test for a team of 9 players.
EXPERIMENT 2: 9 Man Math Attack
I used the same two types of players to run what turns out to be a pretty complicated calculation when you do it for nine players. Again we are looking at two teams, one freakishly consistent, putting up nine home runs a week, and the other made up of nine different guys who hit four home runs in a week, but just once a month. Rather than narrate all my calculations for this one, I’ll present the results in a table (email me if you want to know my method). Basically, the outer two columns are the ones that matter:
# Home Runs # Zero HR players, X of 4 HR players X of Possible Combos Total Percentage Chance
0 9,0 1 7.5%
4 8,1 9 22.5%
8 7,2 36 30.0%
12 6,3 84 23.5%
16 5,4 126 11.72%
20 4,5 126 3.91%
24 3,6 84 0.84%
28 2,7 36 0.11%
32 1,8 9 0.01%
36 0,9 1 Almost Zero
Hmm. This is less clear-cut than the three-player example. The pure numbers show that three times out of five (60 percent), the streaky team will lose the home runs category to a team that hits nine homers a week. However – it also shows that the streaky team will hit eight or more home runs an astonishing seventy percent of the time. Essentially you are right there with the consistent team more than two-thirds of the time. My interpretation is that it looks to be worth taking your chances with the streaky team.
What Have We Learned?
The idea that streakiness may be worth seeking out is not what I was expecting. It always seemed intuitive and even obvious that consistency was something you would want. Part of what these experiments demonstrate is the randomness of head to head leagues – it shows why a team that hits 150 home runs over a season sometimes beats a team that hits 250. I think this needs further examination.
There are other things I can do to examine this idea of consistency, and a lot of other categories to work with – and I will over time. Before Joe gets a chance to respond, I’m going to perform a different experiment on how home runs are distributed and see how that turns out.
With the type of streaky team I have been discussing, you might be destined to suffer many weeks of frustrating futility, but the calculations suggest that you could be better off in the long run. It’s a counterintuitive, somewhat bizarre result. If you can offer some criticism explaining faults in my reasoning I’d be open to hearing about it, but the numbers look pretty convincing. So please email me at baseballfaceoff@gmail.com.
And for Joe, as you start putting together your response - what are your views on the value of consistency in head to head leagues? Do you have anything to say about the findings of this experiment?
Sometimes questioning the conventional wisdom will pay off. Going back to basics and examining the justification for basic assumptions can help you find value where other players will miss it.
Posted By Chris
This week Joe and I are going to tackle an issue that comes up from time to time in fantasy advice columns: should fantasy owners seek out consistent performers over streaky players when assembling head-to-head league teams? Whenever I’ve heard someone say that – I figure, yeah, that sounds like a pretty good idea. But I never looked at it in detail. It feels like it would be a good idea to grab guys who will produce consistently throughout the year, rather than hitters who alternate slumps and streaks. If your team produces consistent numbers week after week, it will be able to compete every week and you won’t have to worry about weeks when your team struggles to put up a line like 12 runs /2 HR/ 9 RBI / 1 steal / .202 Avg.
Nobody wants to have a team that will lay an egg every few weeks. But is the fear of a rough week a good reason to avoid streaky players? Do you value a player less if he traditionally starts slowly, or if his production drops like a rock every August 1st? Do you believe your team is better off with players that produce consistently, or with guys who are streaky and produce unpredictably throughout the year? These are the questions that should be examined – and will be in this Face Off.
For this round Joe and I will discuss how each of us plans for head to head leagues and recommend strategies to help you put together a better team – for now, and when next year’s draft comes around.
My assumption has always been that there are many attributes to weigh when considering players for head to head league teams. Streakiness is not one of them. I always thought it was just too much work to worry about it. My hope was that uneven production would even itself out with good weeks to make up for the bad ones.
For example, you never know if your team will need to get two or seven saves in a given week to win the category. They will happen when they happen. You do know that if you have three closers likely to save 30 games, and most teams in your league have just one or two, that your team should win the category quite often. There is always a chance that your three closer team will only pick up two saves some week, and your opponent’s lone closer will pick up three or four, beating you in a category that you expected to win. This makes head-to-head leagues unpredictable and, for some people, frustrating.
But then again, baseball is unpredictable. The best team doesn’t always win. The best players make outs in more than two-thirds of their attempts. Sluggers become legendary despite failing to hit home runs in more than 90 percent of their at bats. Because positive outcomes are rare, it is relatively common for overmatched teams to pull out victories, I, for one, deeply enjoy this aspect of random chance that comes up in head to head leagues.
With roto leagues it doesn’t matter when your players accumulate their stats. Any homer goes into the homer pile; the team with the biggest pile at the end of the year wins the category. In a head-to-head league, the ideal situation would be to have a team that rations its homers to accumulate one more than your opponent every week, and holds onto extras for the next time you need them, like roll-over minutes.
I think the best idea advice is: don’t worry about it. Go for players who will accumulate the best stats over the course of the year, regardless of the type of league. I can see an argument for avoiding players who consistently tire down the stretch in a league where there are playoffs in September, but I’m not convinced it’s worth worrying about. Primarily because I’m not sure these kinds of trends can be predicted with accuracy.
Before you email to tell me what an idiot I am, think about the assumptions that must be true to justify seeking only consistent players. The first assumption is that any trends you can find in past performance will be repeated this year. This is not trivial – for instance, statisticians have a difficult time proving the existence of clutch hitters, by any metric you want to choose. It may seem obvious that Player X is a great clutch hitter (David Ortiz, Derek Jeter, whoever you like), but your memory might emphasize successes and forget the failures. Secondly, you have to prove that consistency is actually a better outcome than feast or famine. That’s what I want to talk about in the second part of this article. I did a little experiment and the results are downright shocking.
EXPERIMENT 1: Examining the Concept
I performed some calculations to measure what really happens when you have streaky home run hitters on your team. First, the assumptions of this experiment: Because there are 26 weeks in a baseball season, I based my calculations on players who hit an average of 26 homers a year, or one per week. I broke this down into two types of players, those who hit one homer every week, and those who hit four home runs in a week, but just once every four weeks on average. This works out to be basically the same number of home runs over the course of a season. Obviously, neither of these hypothetical players is based on someone real - no one is this consistently this streaky - but I thought the results would be enlightening.
The “control group” of consistent players hit one home run every week, for a total of three homers each week. To me the question is – does a set of three inconsistent players hit more than three home runs more weeks than not? Because if they do, that would suggest that there’s no need to worry about the kind of consistency some people seek out.
The first thing I did was to run the probabilities for a set of three players, all the type of player who hits four homers in one week, at a rate of once every four weeks. The likelihood that a given player would hit his four home runs is one in four. The likelihood that he wouldn’t hit any is three in four. The likelihood that all three would hit zero home runs in a given week is ¾ times ¾ times ¾, equal to 27/64, or 42.2 percent.
The chances that Player A would hit his four when none of the others do is ¼ times ¾ times ¾ for a total of 9/64, or about 14 percent. The same rate holds for Player B or Player C smashing his four bombs while his teammates flounder. That means it works that there’s also a 42 percent chance that this “team” would hit four home runs in a week.
The chances that Players A and B would hit their four on the same week that C hits none is ¼ times ¼ times ¾, or 3/64, 4.7 percent. The same rate is true if the pair that hits homers are A and C or B and C. The chances that all three hit them at the same time is 1 in 64, or very low – 1.6 percent.
To review, 42 percent of the time this mini-team will hit zero home runs. But 58 percent of the time they will hit four or more. About 16 percent of the time (once every six weeks!) they’ll hit eight or more.
Remember, the team you are trying to defeat always hits three homers a week. This means that more often than not, your team of streaky players should beat the team of consistent players. I’ll have to admit that this surprised me quite a bit. And it prompted me to do even more math. I ran the same test for a team of 9 players.
EXPERIMENT 2: 9 Man Math Attack
I used the same two types of players to run what turns out to be a pretty complicated calculation when you do it for nine players. Again we are looking at two teams, one freakishly consistent, putting up nine home runs a week, and the other made up of nine different guys who hit four home runs in a week, but just once a month. Rather than narrate all my calculations for this one, I’ll present the results in a table (email me if you want to know my method). Basically, the outer two columns are the ones that matter:
# Home Runs # Zero HR players, X of 4 HR players X of Possible Combos Total Percentage Chance
0 9,0 1 7.5%
4 8,1 9 22.5%
8 7,2 36 30.0%
12 6,3 84 23.5%
16 5,4 126 11.72%
20 4,5 126 3.91%
24 3,6 84 0.84%
28 2,7 36 0.11%
32 1,8 9 0.01%
36 0,9 1 Almost Zero
Hmm. This is less clear-cut than the three-player example. The pure numbers show that three times out of five (60 percent), the streaky team will lose the home runs category to a team that hits nine homers a week. However – it also shows that the streaky team will hit eight or more home runs an astonishing seventy percent of the time. Essentially you are right there with the consistent team more than two-thirds of the time. My interpretation is that it looks to be worth taking your chances with the streaky team.
What Have We Learned?
The idea that streakiness may be worth seeking out is not what I was expecting. It always seemed intuitive and even obvious that consistency was something you would want. Part of what these experiments demonstrate is the randomness of head to head leagues – it shows why a team that hits 150 home runs over a season sometimes beats a team that hits 250. I think this needs further examination.
There are other things I can do to examine this idea of consistency, and a lot of other categories to work with – and I will over time. Before Joe gets a chance to respond, I’m going to perform a different experiment on how home runs are distributed and see how that turns out.
With the type of streaky team I have been discussing, you might be destined to suffer many weeks of frustrating futility, but the calculations suggest that you could be better off in the long run. It’s a counterintuitive, somewhat bizarre result. If you can offer some criticism explaining faults in my reasoning I’d be open to hearing about it, but the numbers look pretty convincing. So please email me at baseballfaceoff@gmail.com.
And for Joe, as you start putting together your response - what are your views on the value of consistency in head to head leagues? Do you have anything to say about the findings of this experiment?
Sometimes questioning the conventional wisdom will pay off. Going back to basics and examining the justification for basic assumptions can help you find value where other players will miss it.
The May Mirage
Originally Posted May 14
Part One of Two
Hey there, reader(s?). Sorry for the unplanned hiatus. I’m happy to tell you we’re back with a new column. If you like what we do email comments or questions to baseballfaceoff@gmail.com, or follow the links to our forum and start a discussion.
In one of our recent columns, Joe and I wrote about the tantalizing temptations of April, those hitters who have started off, as Jason McElwain might say, hotter than a pistol. Well, this is the time to think about whether some of the early season superstars have the power to sustain their success. Sure, hitters like Albert Pujols are off to hot starts (elbow injury be damned) – but it would be boring to write about what stars we expect to continue hitting well. What about the upstarts? Who can be expected to maintain their success? Who’s bound to drop off? That’s what this faceoff is about. I’m going to start this one, and Joe will respond in a couple of days.
I’m going to discuss these three players:
Name Runs Home Runs RBI Steals AVG OPS
Nate McLouth 31 9 29 3 .307 .990
Ryan Church 28 7 26 1 .319 .917
Ryan Doumit 21 5 15 0 .350 .955
Let’s start this discussion with Nate McLouth, the number 7 overall fantasy performer according to Yahoo!: He’s a legitimate threat in all fantasy categories. And he hasn’t been lucky – his batting average on balls in play (batting average when he doesn’t hit a homer or strike out) is .306, which is a pretty reasonable value, really. And he has been in a bit of a slump. He has just one hit in his last fifteen at-bats.
McLouth was one of those hitters that didn’t make a ton of noise during the season in 2007, but really jumped out as a sleeper for 2008 during draft preparations. He hit 13 homers? Well, for a part time outfielder, I guess that’s okay. He stole 22 bases? In only 329 at bats? Now we’re talking.
In spring training the question was whether or not he would get playing time. He’s making the most of his chance, and I see him being a strong contributor throughout the year. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him drop off a bit on homers and batting average, but he could definitely pick it up with a few more stolen bases. I expect him to settle in as a good #2 outfielder for any fantasy team.
Moving on, we have another player who has also had difficulty getting playing time in the past, Ryan Church. He’s been on a star’s pace – just multiply his numbers by about 4 and you’ll see that he’s on track for more than 100 runs and rbi. His line drive percentage is astronomical at 29%. Most players don’t go much over 20%. And his batting average on balls in play is about .380, which is pretty high, probably due to that amazing line drive percentage.
Church is a player I like, but I don’t see him keeping this up all year. Last year he hit .272, and had an OPS of .813. I can definitely see him splitting the difference and settling in at about .850, which would make him a solid outfielder. I expect a bit of a regression – that he won’t meet the 100/30/100 pace. He should be a solid contributor the rest of the way, but not a star.
Then there’s Ryan Doumit. Holy cow, he’s hitting .350. The Pirates’ catcher is better than halfway to career highs in almost every major category after an amazing start. If he could keep up this pace he’d be a fantasy savior at catcher. Well – it’s not going to happen. Not only did he break his thumb in a game against the Cardinals the other day, he’s been quite lucky. His line drive percentage is about 19 percent, and his batting average on balls in play is at .369. On average, the relationship is line drive percentage + .120 = BABIP.
When Doumit comes back from his injury – don’t expect him to pick up where he left off. He might perform at a fairly high level for a catcher – but he’s not going to continue playing like a star. He should regress even more than Church does.
There is a trick to identifying true breakouts as they happen. For every Chris Shelton who blows up at the beginning of a season, there’s a budding star that actually did jump to the next level. I think McLouth is one of the guys who is emerging as a fantasy force, while Church and Doumit are due to drop off a little, and a lot, respectively.
Joe, it’s your turn, why don’t you tell me who else is a May mirage?
June 5
Part Two of Two
Posted by Joe:
Hey, sorry about this - but some things came up, and Joe is not going to be able to post an analysis of a third player for this column.
It is always difficult to decide whether to buy into a player’s fast start in fantasy baseball. It’s always difficult to tell if the start is “real” or if the player will return to his previous level of performance in the near future. When looking at players who have started quickly, I often go back to their scouting reports from when they were prospects (Baseball America has archived reports for subscribers) as a deciding factor. Here are three players off to fast starts that I believe in, and three that I refuse to “drink the Kool-Aid”.
I believe that…
Melky Cabrera can continue to produce at a level that could have him finishing the season with 15 SB and 15 HR. Whether he reaches those particular benchmarks is perhaps irrelevant, because few expected even 10 HR out of him at the start of the season. I didn’t expect that his slugging percentage would stay over the .500 threshold, but again, what were you expecting from him at the start of this season?
Why do I believe in Melky Cabrera? It’s a gut feeling, perhaps, but in early 2005, Baseball America quoted Yankees officials as saying that Melky reminded them of Jose Vidro (the version of Vidro that played on the Expos, one would assume). So far, Cabrera has not shown the power that Vidro showed at his prime, but Cabrera is just 23 years old (in fact, he’s 11 months younger than a certain highly-touted CF that has been seeing playing time in Boston). I don’t know if this should count for anything, but more than any player in recent memory, I have hoped that Melky Cabrera would succeed. Every time I turn on the television, it seems that Cabrera is flying all over the field and around the bases, playing the game with a reckless abandon and youthfulness that is inspiring. I would not be surprised if Yankee fans eventually embrace him in the same way they did Bernie Williams and Jorge Posada, wanting the organization to keep him in house at all costs. Now none of this should really influence his fantasy value (unless you play in a league that distinguishes between LF, CF, and RF) other than the fact that if he continues to prove himself invaluable to the Yankees, he will have more opportunities than players of equivalent peripheral numbers to score/drive-in more runs because of the relatively potent (if not underperforming) Yankee lineup surrounding him. While Cabrera is in a mini-slump, I still expect him to contribute to your fantasy team:
Preseason Expectations: .280/.350/.400, 8 HR, 70 R, 70 RBI, 10 SB
Season Pace: .261/.322/.433, 25 HR, 66 R, 74 RBI, 12 SB
Adjusted Expectations: .280/.350/.440, 15 HR, 75 R, 80 RBI, 15 SB
My recommendation on Cabrera is to expect more of the same, and to keep him on your fantasy team as he probably has a greater value to your team than he would have trade value.
I believe that…
Edinson Volquez is for real. Again, I go back to scout’s views of Volquez to justify this claim. In 2006, Baseball America gave Edinson rave reviews, publicly noting that Volquez is frequently compared to Pedro Martinez both on and off the mound. His stuff has always been fantastic, as he features a fastball with sink that sits in the mid-nineties and a changeup that BA says rates a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale. His makeup has never been in question, so most of the concerns surrounding him were those that naturally correspond to a career ERA of 7.20 entering this year as well as the lack of a true solid third pitch.
I generally state that a player’s past performance should dictate his future performance, so again, why do I believe that Volquez is going to be different? First, he is young, and it is difficult to apply this general rule to either young players or players recovering from injury. Second, sample size can be very deceiving. Volquez had 17 starts prior to this year and these were spread out amongst three years. Is it reasonable to make a career assumption based upon scattered starts spread over three years? I don’t think so.
The numbers seem to support Volquez being able to maintain his fast start. His K/9 ratio is 10.61, his BABIP allowed is a reasonable 0.279, and his groundball to flyball ratio is a very good 1.88. So what do I believe this means?
Preseason Expectations: 150 IP, 9 wins, 130 K, 4.50 ERA, 1.44 WHIP
Current Pace: 185 IP, 23 wins, 220 K, 1.12 ERA, 1.26 WHIP
Adjusted Expectations: 185 IP, 18 wins, 210 K, 2.30 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
My recommendation for Volquez is to keep him and ride his unexpected surge to the top of your league. He shouldn’t be going anywhere for a long time, and could be a 200 strikeout contributor this year and for many years to come.
Part One of Two
Hey there, reader(s?). Sorry for the unplanned hiatus. I’m happy to tell you we’re back with a new column. If you like what we do email comments or questions to baseballfaceoff@gmail.com, or follow the links to our forum and start a discussion.
In one of our recent columns, Joe and I wrote about the tantalizing temptations of April, those hitters who have started off, as Jason McElwain might say, hotter than a pistol. Well, this is the time to think about whether some of the early season superstars have the power to sustain their success. Sure, hitters like Albert Pujols are off to hot starts (elbow injury be damned) – but it would be boring to write about what stars we expect to continue hitting well. What about the upstarts? Who can be expected to maintain their success? Who’s bound to drop off? That’s what this faceoff is about. I’m going to start this one, and Joe will respond in a couple of days.
I’m going to discuss these three players:
Name Runs Home Runs RBI Steals AVG OPS
Nate McLouth 31 9 29 3 .307 .990
Ryan Church 28 7 26 1 .319 .917
Ryan Doumit 21 5 15 0 .350 .955
Let’s start this discussion with Nate McLouth, the number 7 overall fantasy performer according to Yahoo!: He’s a legitimate threat in all fantasy categories. And he hasn’t been lucky – his batting average on balls in play (batting average when he doesn’t hit a homer or strike out) is .306, which is a pretty reasonable value, really. And he has been in a bit of a slump. He has just one hit in his last fifteen at-bats.
McLouth was one of those hitters that didn’t make a ton of noise during the season in 2007, but really jumped out as a sleeper for 2008 during draft preparations. He hit 13 homers? Well, for a part time outfielder, I guess that’s okay. He stole 22 bases? In only 329 at bats? Now we’re talking.
In spring training the question was whether or not he would get playing time. He’s making the most of his chance, and I see him being a strong contributor throughout the year. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him drop off a bit on homers and batting average, but he could definitely pick it up with a few more stolen bases. I expect him to settle in as a good #2 outfielder for any fantasy team.
Moving on, we have another player who has also had difficulty getting playing time in the past, Ryan Church. He’s been on a star’s pace – just multiply his numbers by about 4 and you’ll see that he’s on track for more than 100 runs and rbi. His line drive percentage is astronomical at 29%. Most players don’t go much over 20%. And his batting average on balls in play is about .380, which is pretty high, probably due to that amazing line drive percentage.
Church is a player I like, but I don’t see him keeping this up all year. Last year he hit .272, and had an OPS of .813. I can definitely see him splitting the difference and settling in at about .850, which would make him a solid outfielder. I expect a bit of a regression – that he won’t meet the 100/30/100 pace. He should be a solid contributor the rest of the way, but not a star.
Then there’s Ryan Doumit. Holy cow, he’s hitting .350. The Pirates’ catcher is better than halfway to career highs in almost every major category after an amazing start. If he could keep up this pace he’d be a fantasy savior at catcher. Well – it’s not going to happen. Not only did he break his thumb in a game against the Cardinals the other day, he’s been quite lucky. His line drive percentage is about 19 percent, and his batting average on balls in play is at .369. On average, the relationship is line drive percentage + .120 = BABIP.
When Doumit comes back from his injury – don’t expect him to pick up where he left off. He might perform at a fairly high level for a catcher – but he’s not going to continue playing like a star. He should regress even more than Church does.
There is a trick to identifying true breakouts as they happen. For every Chris Shelton who blows up at the beginning of a season, there’s a budding star that actually did jump to the next level. I think McLouth is one of the guys who is emerging as a fantasy force, while Church and Doumit are due to drop off a little, and a lot, respectively.
Joe, it’s your turn, why don’t you tell me who else is a May mirage?
June 5
Part Two of Two
Posted by Joe:
Hey, sorry about this - but some things came up, and Joe is not going to be able to post an analysis of a third player for this column.
It is always difficult to decide whether to buy into a player’s fast start in fantasy baseball. It’s always difficult to tell if the start is “real” or if the player will return to his previous level of performance in the near future. When looking at players who have started quickly, I often go back to their scouting reports from when they were prospects (Baseball America has archived reports for subscribers) as a deciding factor. Here are three players off to fast starts that I believe in, and three that I refuse to “drink the Kool-Aid”.
I believe that…
Melky Cabrera can continue to produce at a level that could have him finishing the season with 15 SB and 15 HR. Whether he reaches those particular benchmarks is perhaps irrelevant, because few expected even 10 HR out of him at the start of the season. I didn’t expect that his slugging percentage would stay over the .500 threshold, but again, what were you expecting from him at the start of this season?
Why do I believe in Melky Cabrera? It’s a gut feeling, perhaps, but in early 2005, Baseball America quoted Yankees officials as saying that Melky reminded them of Jose Vidro (the version of Vidro that played on the Expos, one would assume). So far, Cabrera has not shown the power that Vidro showed at his prime, but Cabrera is just 23 years old (in fact, he’s 11 months younger than a certain highly-touted CF that has been seeing playing time in Boston). I don’t know if this should count for anything, but more than any player in recent memory, I have hoped that Melky Cabrera would succeed. Every time I turn on the television, it seems that Cabrera is flying all over the field and around the bases, playing the game with a reckless abandon and youthfulness that is inspiring. I would not be surprised if Yankee fans eventually embrace him in the same way they did Bernie Williams and Jorge Posada, wanting the organization to keep him in house at all costs. Now none of this should really influence his fantasy value (unless you play in a league that distinguishes between LF, CF, and RF) other than the fact that if he continues to prove himself invaluable to the Yankees, he will have more opportunities than players of equivalent peripheral numbers to score/drive-in more runs because of the relatively potent (if not underperforming) Yankee lineup surrounding him. While Cabrera is in a mini-slump, I still expect him to contribute to your fantasy team:
Preseason Expectations: .280/.350/.400, 8 HR, 70 R, 70 RBI, 10 SB
Season Pace: .261/.322/.433, 25 HR, 66 R, 74 RBI, 12 SB
Adjusted Expectations: .280/.350/.440, 15 HR, 75 R, 80 RBI, 15 SB
My recommendation on Cabrera is to expect more of the same, and to keep him on your fantasy team as he probably has a greater value to your team than he would have trade value.
I believe that…
Edinson Volquez is for real. Again, I go back to scout’s views of Volquez to justify this claim. In 2006, Baseball America gave Edinson rave reviews, publicly noting that Volquez is frequently compared to Pedro Martinez both on and off the mound. His stuff has always been fantastic, as he features a fastball with sink that sits in the mid-nineties and a changeup that BA says rates a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale. His makeup has never been in question, so most of the concerns surrounding him were those that naturally correspond to a career ERA of 7.20 entering this year as well as the lack of a true solid third pitch.
I generally state that a player’s past performance should dictate his future performance, so again, why do I believe that Volquez is going to be different? First, he is young, and it is difficult to apply this general rule to either young players or players recovering from injury. Second, sample size can be very deceiving. Volquez had 17 starts prior to this year and these were spread out amongst three years. Is it reasonable to make a career assumption based upon scattered starts spread over three years? I don’t think so.
The numbers seem to support Volquez being able to maintain his fast start. His K/9 ratio is 10.61, his BABIP allowed is a reasonable 0.279, and his groundball to flyball ratio is a very good 1.88. So what do I believe this means?
Preseason Expectations: 150 IP, 9 wins, 130 K, 4.50 ERA, 1.44 WHIP
Current Pace: 185 IP, 23 wins, 220 K, 1.12 ERA, 1.26 WHIP
Adjusted Expectations: 185 IP, 18 wins, 210 K, 2.30 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
My recommendation for Volquez is to keep him and ride his unexpected surge to the top of your league. He shouldn’t be going anywhere for a long time, and could be a 200 strikeout contributor this year and for many years to come.
Holds and Lesser Known Categories
Originally posted April 13, 2008
Part One of Two
Joe, you know that the most popular type of fantasy baseball league is the 5 X 5 league (categories include runs scored, rbi, homers, steals, and batting average for hitters, wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP for pitchers). Most rankings and analysis that you’ll read focus on that type of league. The less popular categories can be a lot of fun, and offer players a chance to develop a real advantage over their competitors. I love holds, for example.
For this faceoff, let’s talk about the hold as a fantasy baseball category. Do you think it makes for an interesting category? How do you manage your team to secure as many as possible? Because I lost the coin flip – I’ll start.
Holds are one of my favorite categories. Holds are one-step removed from a save, awarded to pitchers who enter a game with less than a 3 run lead or less, get an out, and exit without giving up the lead. Even if runners he put on base later score, that’s a hold. Even if he gets both the loss and the hold. Um, that’s kind of strange, but definitely interesting. Technically, a pitcher could also get the win and a hold in the same game as well, at least according to Yahoo’s definition. Because holds are actually unofficial stats the definition can vary depending on who’s recording them. But don’t think about it too hard. Essentially, you can think of a hold as a save for the seventh or eighth inning.
Remember that closers don’t have to pitch well to get a save, either. If holds are not counted in a league, then that eliminates almost all value for relievers who are not closers. Because setup guys are important to a regular team, I like it when they matter on your fantasy team. Holds also require that you pay attention to what’s happening in the MLB. As with any uncommon stat, this is an opportunity to grind out an edge over your competitors. Knowledge picked up while researching holds will apply in your other leagues, too. If you are following holds, you’ll know the guys who are next in line for save opportunities when a closer loses his job.
Because the hold is a bit elusive and difficult to predict, you will need to put in some effort to figure out who should be on your team. Unlike the top closers, you can’t really predict the top setup men from year to year. Only 4 guys have been in the top 20 in holds each of the past 3 years, Scott Linebrink, Scot Shields, Bob Howry, and Chad Qualls. 6 more have been up there in at least two of the last three years, Mike Timlin, Juan Rincon, Scott Schoenweis, Brandon Lyon, Justin Speier, and Aaron Heilman. What this tells you is that there’s a lot of turnover, so you don’t want to look solely at past performance to predict this year’s holds totals.
Looking at the past three years of holds leaderboards – you can make a few generalizations. There seem to be a bunch of pitchers who end up with totals in the high teens, so that’s your replacement level setup guy. It’s very likely that you would be able to find someone like that on the waiver wire.
About 20 pitchers a year end up with 20 or more holds. The league leader usually ends up with about 35. The players who gather 20 plus holds might have an ERA up over 4 or even 5, though that’s rare. Many players with high hold totals appear to have run hot streaks to get there – ridiculously low ERAs coming out of nowhere compared to previous performance. Some teams might put a couple of players on that leaderboard, and that doesn’t seem to correlate particularly well with team wins.
These observations reinforce the idea that holds are difficult to predict. Think about how many setup men most teams in your league will be carrying. Is it 2-3? In that case, you probably want to aim for a team total around 50-60. If you can get that many during the season, you should be fine. But, unlike many other fantasy categories the fight for holds does not end with the auction or draft.
Holds, more than any other category, require you to do research during the season. Watch the box scores and pitching stats. The guys that get holds will change radically as the year develops. The top setup men in August are quite likely not to be at the top of the season leaderboard. Teams will go with the hot hand quite often. You’ll want to search for things like league leaders in holds for the past week or month to get an idea of who are the go to guys at the moment. Don’t just rely on the league leaders for the season. That’s how you find a guy like Ryan Franklin last year, 10th in the majors in holds with 25.
Another thing you can do is watch the progression of young players. A guy like Rafael Perez started his 2007 season with about 20 innings and 1 earned run. He went from pitching the fourth and fifth innings to later innings when the team was trailing, and finally to protecting leads in the seventh and eighth innings. In the last month or two of last season, he was a top set up man (part of a shutdown setup duo with Rafael Betancourt). The lesson here is that you need to use up your holds guys and toss them out when they stop accumulating holds. Make sure your team is flexible enough to accommodate these types of changes, and don’t keep favorites.
Holds are a fun category. They take a little bit of effort – but a dedicated fantasy player can win easily. This is also a category that your team can excel in, even if you don’t have any setup men at this point in the season. There are lots of ways to gather holds. Below is a list of the top holds candidates, a list of sleepers, and another list of players to watch later in the season.
Holds For Now:
Scot Shields, Los Angeles Angels
Derrick Turnbow, Milwaukee Brewers
Rafael Betancourt, Cleveland Indians
Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs
Sleepers/Underrated:
Scott Downs, Toronto Blue Jays
Casey Jannsen, Toronto Blue Jays
Ryan Franklin, St. Louis Cardinals
Denny Bautista, Detroit Tigers
Holds Candidates For Later This Season:
Joel Zumaya, Detroit Tigers
Ross Ohlendorf, New York Yankees
Jensen Lewis, Cleveland Indians
Seth McClung, Milwaukee Brewers
Part Two of Two
Posted by Joe, April 23, 2008
In our last faceoff, Chris and I both talked about evaluating our teams early in the season and making adjustments as you see fit. In an 18 team H2H 6X6 dynasty league, I’ve done just that and will discuss my strategy in this league given the team that I have fielded.
Before we get started, here is a little more information about this league. The hitting categories are R, HR, RBI, SB, OBP, and SLG and the pitching categories are W, SV, Holds, K, ERA, and WHIP. I consistently punt saves in this league (this is its fourth year of existence) and have finished 6th, 2nd, and 2nd respectively in each of the first three years. We have 23 active roster spots and 5 reserve spots. I’ve included the number of years left on each player’s contract, and the effective cost of each player after the player’s name. We have a soft $260 salary cap (my cap this year is $272 due to trades).
Roster as of 4/7/08
C- Geovany Soto (5, $2)
1B- Albert Pujols (1, $63)
2B- Dan Uggla (1, $9)
3B- David Wright (2, $32)
SS- Derek Jeter (4, $19)
LF- Jack Cust (4, $16)
CF- Andruw Jones (4, $16)
RF- Bobby Abreu (3, $18)
UT- Conor Jackson (4, $4)
P- Chien-Ming Wang (1, $7)
P- Derek Lowe (3, $12)
P- Tom Gorzelanny (3, $6)
P- Edinson Volquez (5, $2)
P- Kevin Millwood (2, $2)
P- Joba Chamberlain (5, $2)
P- J.C. Romero (1, $2)
P- Scott Proctor (1, $3)
P- Ross Ohlendorf (1, $2)
BN- Bengie Molina (1, $5)
BN- Mark Ellis (3, $2)
BN- Austin Kearns (3, $12)
BN- Melky Cabrera (3, $3)
BN- Paul Maholm (3, $2)
PL- Cliff Lee (1, $2)
PL- Randy Wolf (1, $2)
PL- Jonathan Sanchez (5, $2)
PL- Homer Bailey (5, $2)
PL- Eugenio Velez (1, $2)
Looking first at my hitters, I feel comfortable in my ability to compete in every category on a weekly basis. In fact, I’ll be pretty upset when I lose anything but SB (I, of course, was swept in every hitting category last week!). When you look closely, though, you can see that I have no help at SS or 3B if Jeter or Wright were to be injured. And in an 18-team league, waiver wire options are not pretty (Christian Guzman anyone?).
Looking next at my pitching, I am obviously not going to compete for saves and will likely never win that category. I understood this heading out of the auction and have no concerns about punting a category in a very deep H2H league. When I look at my starting pitching, one word comes to mind: mediocre. The most strikeouts I could hope for out of any of my five established starters on my active roster would be 160 or so (Millwood) and Maholm and Wang will probably strikeout a total of 175 batters. Gorzelanny and Lowe could each strike out just shy of 150 batters each, but this is certainly not earth shattering. Losing Kelvim Escobar to injury this season really hurt the strikeout potential of my pitching staff (I normally have six starters active compared to the five that most managers use) and has me gambling on a big season from Edison Volquez. I like his upside and think that he’ll strike guys out, but I don’t feel confident in a great season. My team ERA and WHIP will likely depend on Millwood, Volquez, Maholm, and Gorzelanny as Lowe and Wang are pretty consistent. In a weekly H2H league, I figure that I’ll have a few good weeks and a few bad weeks and a lot of mediocre weeks, and will hope to steal as many categories as I can by protecting early weekly leads in ERA and WHIP by picking and choosing matchups later in the week, or by throwing every starter out there to get wins and strikeouts (I am starting more guys than they are!) if my ERA and WHIP are awful early in the week. If I can average winning two out of these four categories every week (W, K, ERA, WHIP) I’d be happy. I suspect that this is fairly reasonable, actually. Finally, regarding holds, I’m very, very comfortable with Joba Chamberlain and J.C. Romero (and Chamberlain will give me strikeouts), but am disappointed with how Scott Proctor and Ross Ohlendorf have been used thusfar (in non-hold situations). I feel that if I can average winning five hitting categories per week, I hope to address other concerns with my team as the year goes on, but for today, I’m focusing on addressing my holds situation.
I like to dominate holds in a league that uses them, and I tend to employ very specific strategies to do so: I prefer quantity over quality, and I never, ever want to overpay for my holds. In the past few years, I’ve scoured the waiver wire and added the likes of Heath Bell, Manny Delcarmen, and J.C. Romero and have been very successful without spending significant auction dollars on top-tier holds guys (each year, at least one middle reliever exceeds $10 in our league). The most I have ever paid is $3. If I were in a more shallow league, I’d probably modify my strategy some to pursue more high profile relievers, but my strategy in this league is to get four holds guys and six starters (remember, I punt saves) and hope that it does the trick. As my roster sits today, I have two new holds guys that I have obtained via free agency, and I have released Proctor and Ohelendorf. I grabbed Brian Bruney when it became obvious that his role was improving in the Yankee pen. A good holds guy on a team that will win a lot of games can be pretty powerful. I also like to stack a couple of guys on the same team (only a good team though!) because I can grab two holds in one game (like I did just a few days ago with Bruney and Chamberlain) or get them on successive days (if fatigue plays a factor in the bullpen). The other guy I grabbed is Leo Nunez, who got off to a fast start, but is now starting to disappoint me.
In pursuing holds, I tend to avoid situational guys, and latch on to the standard seventh and eighth inning guys. I also like guys that have high K/9 ratios (don’t we all?) because you never know when those extra strikeouts will come in handy. I constantly check my free agent pool for holds and am never satisfied with who I have. I treat these guys as disposable players. I only keep them as long as they are doing good things (I’m talking to you, Jamie Walker!). Obviously, I won’t be dropping Chamberlain anytime soon, but if Bruney, Romero, or Nunez doesn’t pan out, I’ll try someone else. There are no loyalties in my bullpen! You are officially on notice, Mr. Nunez!
Finally, you must stay vigilant. If these guys were good enough to be closers, they’d generally have that job already (there are some obvious exceptions to this: Chamberlain, Okajima, and Broxton come to mind). Today’s ace set-up man is often two consecutive blown saves away from being buried in the fifth inning of a 14-2 blowout loss. Keep aware of your players’ usage (inning and game situation), and don’t be afraid to make a move when you need to (they’re only coming in non-hold situations).
Well, it’s simple, but that’s my strategy on holds. Until next time, keep vigilant, and keep checking back for more baseball faceoffs!
*Joe would also like to note that Cliff Lee and Randy Wolf are now on his active roster, while the Pirates starters have been jettisoned to his PL.
Early Season Game Strategies
Originally posted April 2, 2008
Part One of Two
Posted by Joe
So your drafts and auctions are over, and you are getting antsy to do something, to do ANYTHING. Well, while I do not necessarily encourage you to take action immediately in your leagues, you certainly can be doing something as the season begins. In this face-off, Chris and Joe give their opinions on the art of managing the early season in fantasy baseball.
First (and you certainly could have done this immediately following the draft or auction), make a list of players that, though they are not on your team, you want to watch a little more closely early in the season. These players might be free agents in your leagues or they might be on another team, but these players should be guys that you considered roster-worthy but did not get selected, or guys that might be dropped by another owner early in the season and that you believe have value. We’ll discuss how to use this list later. You may even want to rank these players in terms of value to your currently assembled team in case you have the opportunity to acquire a player at a later date.
Next, you need to take the time to critically assess your team. You probably didn’t leave the auction or draft with a team that has no flaws. Maybe you are weak at second base, maybe you are short stolen bases; it doesn’t matter what you are missing, you want to take note of it. Also look for surpluses on your roster. Knowing your roster thoroughly will help you when it comes time to make a trade or a waiver claim. Be very critical of yourself. I’d rather know my worst case scenario before it occurs (and be able to work on a solution before it occurs) than try to develop a game plan on the fly after the fact.
Similar to the previous point, you should then take the time to briefly evaluate every other team in your league. This need not be as in depth as your own team’s evaluation, but should give you a general idea of general needs. Hey, when another owner is looking to help his team, you want to be in the position to benefit by having a solution available that is tempting enough that they take it, but helps your squad more than theirs.
Now, take the time to watch the goings on in early season play, but certainly do not feel obliged to act. Be more inclined to make a move if a person’s status changes (someone pegged to be a back-up earns a starting role) than in response to a big game or a fast start. It is a very long season, and players have good games and bad games all the time. They’re more noticeable early in the season when they don’t have the accumulated statistics to tell the whole story. I tend to only grab those guys who get off to a fast start if I had them on my “watch” list, especially if I had them on my “watch” list because I think they might deliver statistics significantly better than in the past. Be sure that if you do decide to grab a player, you are doing so to fill a hole or better the quality of your roster. Nothing hurts more than dropping someone you drafted and watching him deliver a breakout season on somebody else’s roster.
It is also important to always know who on your roster is the most expendable. Say Huston Street walks off the mound clutching his pitching elbow on a nationally televised game. Do you really want to be figuring out whom to drop in order to get Alan Embree? As each other owner in your league is searching for the guy to drop, you’ll have already made the transaction.
This leads me to the next point. Know who, on every team, is in line to benefit if a starter were to go down with an injury. Knowing who to drop won’t do you much good if you don’t know who to pick up. Know where to find the closers-in-waiting for each team. If you can, watch who picks up saves when the regular closer is unavailable (rest, minor injury, etc.). Do remember that just because a player gets playing time does not mean that they’ll do anything with it!
Waiver priority is often overrated in fantasy baseball, but in NL or AL only leagues it might mean a half season of an all-star caliber player. Do not hesitate to use your waiver claims if someone you need comes up, but unless the player is clearly better than someone you could get as a free agent, why potentially lose out on that one big guy later? In mixed leagues? Use ‘em or lose ‘em!
Now, trades are always interesting early in the season. My advice is to only make a trade early if you clearly receive more than you give. Under no circumstances should you trade for a hot hand, unless you genuinely feel that the player you receive will maintain his current level of production throughout the year. Remember that three year averages are better indicators of future performance than are last week’s stats!
That being said, do pursue slow starters-especially if you can get them for fifty cents on the dollar. Beware of those injury risks though. But generally, even if a player has a couple of bad weeks, he’ll return to something close to his statistical averages as the season wears on. Those bad streaks just LOOK worse when you start the season with them. I used this practice to nab Carlos Zambrano in two leagues last year, and he certainly delivered his standard, if not inconsistent, performance.
So my advice for what you can do to stay active after those drafts and auctions is to remember to be patient, grab those guys you are watching only if they can help you fill a need, and only trade if you win, and preferably, win big.
Part Two of Two
April 6, 2008
Hey Joe,
You did a pretty good job of laying out some tactics that will help teams handle the early season tendency for overreaction and panic. My advice is a bit more specific about how a fantasy player can take the raw materials brought together in the draft or auction and forge them into your league’s winner.
The most important thing to keep in mind during this early part of the season is: Don’t be impulsive. You should not overreact and do something crazy like trade your cold all-stars for scorching also-rans. Below is my seven-point plan for success in the month of April:
1. Evaluate Your Team:
Ideally you have done this already. Take your team and make a projection for each player. This can be very easy or you could be very technical with it. Find a website or publication that has preseason projections, average the projections from a bunch of different sources, or do some hardcore analysis and devise your own projection. Then compile the numbers for your players. It’s better to err on the side of being conservative with these. Even if you think Prince Fielder’s going to hit 65 homers this year – knock it down a notch or two. You’ll figure out your weaknesses better this way.
Also, be sure not to project full seasons for your bench players. Just take the fraction of their stats that they’ll compile when you’ll be able to get them in the lineup. Add up your counting stats like home runs, runs, stolen bases, etc. to see how many you project for your team. Then do some rough averaging to get an idea of your team batting average, ERA, WHIP, etc. You’ll be more accurate if you include use at-bats and innings pitched to help weigh your rate stats, but you can get a rough idea without bothering. Now you have a less subjective basis for comparing your team with the league.
2. Be Realistic
Scan the other rosters in your league. Who looks the best? If you don’t have the gift of tons of free time, take a couple of top teams instead of the whole league, and compile team projections for them. Now compare your team to these top dogs. This technique might be best suited to head to head leagues – but in a points or roto league, if your team compares favorably to the best, you should still excel.
3. Make a Plan
You’ve compared your team to the other top contenders in your league. How do you match up? You might be the clear leader, among the contenders, or even sagging well behind. The third situation is the only one that’s dire. In the first scenario you should probably stand pat and see how the season goes.
The second scenario leads to two more questions: What are your strengths? What are your weaknesses? Can you deal from one of your strengths to shore up a weakness? If you have Jose Reyes and Carl Crawford – maybe you could boost your lagging power by trading for a guy with a shot at 40 homers. Maybe a two for one deal would be beneficial here – Crawford plus a bench player gets you Vlad? It’s worth a shot if you have… speed to burn (get it?).
The third scenario – you again must closely examine your weaknesses. Are you without speed? Can your pitchers strike anybody out? Did you forget to draft a closer? You’ll have to be creative, but have six months to fix them and catch your competition.
4. Manage Your Team:
Because you know what you need, now you can look for it.
-Watch for injuries and figure out who will replace the starter.
-Learn the top prospects and monitor their progress
-Watch the box scores – it is important to know Brandon Phillips hits 4th and are watching to see if Robinson Cano starts hitting 5th regularly so that you can adjust your RBI projection for him.
It’s important to make sure that you keep your expectations reasonable early in the season. If you expected a guy to go .275/12 HR/72 RBI and he goes .350/8/30 in April be sure to look back on his projected stats rather than expecting him to keep up that pace for the next five months. So, going forward, expect him to go for about .275/10/60 in the remaining 5/6ths of the season.
5. Don’t Panic
If ARod starts the season 6 for 60, don’t panic
If Beckett throws 2 clunkers to start the year, don’t panic.
And if Joe Nathan blows three April saves, don’t panic.
It’s a long season and April is too early to make rash decisions about your team. Odds are that dependable players will rebound. Keep an eye out for injuries and think about backup plans, but… don’t panic.
6. Don’t Get Cocky
This complements the previous point. If Adam Everett hits 8 homers this April, don’t expect him to continue at that pace. If Brian Bannister throws a no-hitter to follow up his shutout of the Tigers – don’t dump John Smoltz for him. If you picked Nate McLouth as a sleeper this year and his first week has exceeded your expectations – remember that he is not an established star. Don’t stop looking for back-ups just because someone starts strong.
7. Have Fun
Hey, it’s baseball season. Watch some games, see who’s playing well –if you think that adding that player might improve your team, go for it. If you have an irrational love for a player and want to pull for him to succeed – put him on your team; fantasy baseball is supposed to be fun.
Part One of Two
Posted by Joe
So your drafts and auctions are over, and you are getting antsy to do something, to do ANYTHING. Well, while I do not necessarily encourage you to take action immediately in your leagues, you certainly can be doing something as the season begins. In this face-off, Chris and Joe give their opinions on the art of managing the early season in fantasy baseball.
First (and you certainly could have done this immediately following the draft or auction), make a list of players that, though they are not on your team, you want to watch a little more closely early in the season. These players might be free agents in your leagues or they might be on another team, but these players should be guys that you considered roster-worthy but did not get selected, or guys that might be dropped by another owner early in the season and that you believe have value. We’ll discuss how to use this list later. You may even want to rank these players in terms of value to your currently assembled team in case you have the opportunity to acquire a player at a later date.
Next, you need to take the time to critically assess your team. You probably didn’t leave the auction or draft with a team that has no flaws. Maybe you are weak at second base, maybe you are short stolen bases; it doesn’t matter what you are missing, you want to take note of it. Also look for surpluses on your roster. Knowing your roster thoroughly will help you when it comes time to make a trade or a waiver claim. Be very critical of yourself. I’d rather know my worst case scenario before it occurs (and be able to work on a solution before it occurs) than try to develop a game plan on the fly after the fact.
Similar to the previous point, you should then take the time to briefly evaluate every other team in your league. This need not be as in depth as your own team’s evaluation, but should give you a general idea of general needs. Hey, when another owner is looking to help his team, you want to be in the position to benefit by having a solution available that is tempting enough that they take it, but helps your squad more than theirs.
Now, take the time to watch the goings on in early season play, but certainly do not feel obliged to act. Be more inclined to make a move if a person’s status changes (someone pegged to be a back-up earns a starting role) than in response to a big game or a fast start. It is a very long season, and players have good games and bad games all the time. They’re more noticeable early in the season when they don’t have the accumulated statistics to tell the whole story. I tend to only grab those guys who get off to a fast start if I had them on my “watch” list, especially if I had them on my “watch” list because I think they might deliver statistics significantly better than in the past. Be sure that if you do decide to grab a player, you are doing so to fill a hole or better the quality of your roster. Nothing hurts more than dropping someone you drafted and watching him deliver a breakout season on somebody else’s roster.
It is also important to always know who on your roster is the most expendable. Say Huston Street walks off the mound clutching his pitching elbow on a nationally televised game. Do you really want to be figuring out whom to drop in order to get Alan Embree? As each other owner in your league is searching for the guy to drop, you’ll have already made the transaction.
This leads me to the next point. Know who, on every team, is in line to benefit if a starter were to go down with an injury. Knowing who to drop won’t do you much good if you don’t know who to pick up. Know where to find the closers-in-waiting for each team. If you can, watch who picks up saves when the regular closer is unavailable (rest, minor injury, etc.). Do remember that just because a player gets playing time does not mean that they’ll do anything with it!
Waiver priority is often overrated in fantasy baseball, but in NL or AL only leagues it might mean a half season of an all-star caliber player. Do not hesitate to use your waiver claims if someone you need comes up, but unless the player is clearly better than someone you could get as a free agent, why potentially lose out on that one big guy later? In mixed leagues? Use ‘em or lose ‘em!
Now, trades are always interesting early in the season. My advice is to only make a trade early if you clearly receive more than you give. Under no circumstances should you trade for a hot hand, unless you genuinely feel that the player you receive will maintain his current level of production throughout the year. Remember that three year averages are better indicators of future performance than are last week’s stats!
That being said, do pursue slow starters-especially if you can get them for fifty cents on the dollar. Beware of those injury risks though. But generally, even if a player has a couple of bad weeks, he’ll return to something close to his statistical averages as the season wears on. Those bad streaks just LOOK worse when you start the season with them. I used this practice to nab Carlos Zambrano in two leagues last year, and he certainly delivered his standard, if not inconsistent, performance.
So my advice for what you can do to stay active after those drafts and auctions is to remember to be patient, grab those guys you are watching only if they can help you fill a need, and only trade if you win, and preferably, win big.
Part Two of Two
April 6, 2008
Hey Joe,
You did a pretty good job of laying out some tactics that will help teams handle the early season tendency for overreaction and panic. My advice is a bit more specific about how a fantasy player can take the raw materials brought together in the draft or auction and forge them into your league’s winner.
The most important thing to keep in mind during this early part of the season is: Don’t be impulsive. You should not overreact and do something crazy like trade your cold all-stars for scorching also-rans. Below is my seven-point plan for success in the month of April:
1. Evaluate Your Team:
Ideally you have done this already. Take your team and make a projection for each player. This can be very easy or you could be very technical with it. Find a website or publication that has preseason projections, average the projections from a bunch of different sources, or do some hardcore analysis and devise your own projection. Then compile the numbers for your players. It’s better to err on the side of being conservative with these. Even if you think Prince Fielder’s going to hit 65 homers this year – knock it down a notch or two. You’ll figure out your weaknesses better this way.
Also, be sure not to project full seasons for your bench players. Just take the fraction of their stats that they’ll compile when you’ll be able to get them in the lineup. Add up your counting stats like home runs, runs, stolen bases, etc. to see how many you project for your team. Then do some rough averaging to get an idea of your team batting average, ERA, WHIP, etc. You’ll be more accurate if you include use at-bats and innings pitched to help weigh your rate stats, but you can get a rough idea without bothering. Now you have a less subjective basis for comparing your team with the league.
2. Be Realistic
Scan the other rosters in your league. Who looks the best? If you don’t have the gift of tons of free time, take a couple of top teams instead of the whole league, and compile team projections for them. Now compare your team to these top dogs. This technique might be best suited to head to head leagues – but in a points or roto league, if your team compares favorably to the best, you should still excel.
3. Make a Plan
You’ve compared your team to the other top contenders in your league. How do you match up? You might be the clear leader, among the contenders, or even sagging well behind. The third situation is the only one that’s dire. In the first scenario you should probably stand pat and see how the season goes.
The second scenario leads to two more questions: What are your strengths? What are your weaknesses? Can you deal from one of your strengths to shore up a weakness? If you have Jose Reyes and Carl Crawford – maybe you could boost your lagging power by trading for a guy with a shot at 40 homers. Maybe a two for one deal would be beneficial here – Crawford plus a bench player gets you Vlad? It’s worth a shot if you have… speed to burn (get it?).
The third scenario – you again must closely examine your weaknesses. Are you without speed? Can your pitchers strike anybody out? Did you forget to draft a closer? You’ll have to be creative, but have six months to fix them and catch your competition.
4. Manage Your Team:
Because you know what you need, now you can look for it.
-Watch for injuries and figure out who will replace the starter.
-Learn the top prospects and monitor their progress
-Watch the box scores – it is important to know Brandon Phillips hits 4th and are watching to see if Robinson Cano starts hitting 5th regularly so that you can adjust your RBI projection for him.
It’s important to make sure that you keep your expectations reasonable early in the season. If you expected a guy to go .275/12 HR/72 RBI and he goes .350/8/30 in April be sure to look back on his projected stats rather than expecting him to keep up that pace for the next five months. So, going forward, expect him to go for about .275/10/60 in the remaining 5/6ths of the season.
5. Don’t Panic
If ARod starts the season 6 for 60, don’t panic
If Beckett throws 2 clunkers to start the year, don’t panic.
And if Joe Nathan blows three April saves, don’t panic.
It’s a long season and April is too early to make rash decisions about your team. Odds are that dependable players will rebound. Keep an eye out for injuries and think about backup plans, but… don’t panic.
6. Don’t Get Cocky
This complements the previous point. If Adam Everett hits 8 homers this April, don’t expect him to continue at that pace. If Brian Bannister throws a no-hitter to follow up his shutout of the Tigers – don’t dump John Smoltz for him. If you picked Nate McLouth as a sleeper this year and his first week has exceeded your expectations – remember that he is not an established star. Don’t stop looking for back-ups just because someone starts strong.
7. Have Fun
Hey, it’s baseball season. Watch some games, see who’s playing well –if you think that adding that player might improve your team, go for it. If you have an irrational love for a player and want to pull for him to succeed – put him on your team; fantasy baseball is supposed to be fun.
Hey Readers! Or Reader!
Originally posted: March 27, 2008
If you are reading this, we want to hear from you. Ask us a question at baseballfaceoff@gmail.com. If we get enough for a mailbag – that’s an easy column for us, so you are definitely encouraged to contact us. Or start a conversation on our forums. At present we have it set up for administrator approval – we promise to get you approved in short order if you apply.
We do want to hear from anyone reading our columns, hear your suggestions, and gather some general feedback. So please go to http://forums.baseballfaceoff.com or send us an email.
Joe and I both enjoyed doing some research and really digging into some lesser-known prospects for our last column. Can you think of any other prospects that will show up in next year’s top 100s? I limited myself to just 3 hitters and 3 pitchers. Other players that I considered include Tony Thomas, a second baseman with the Cubs system, Kevin Ahrens, third baseman for the Blue Jays, Aneury Rodriguez from the Rockies, Cole Rohrbough, pitcher for the Braves, and a few very young players like Michael Almanzar, an infielder for the Red Sox, and other guys with birthdays in the 90s.
Hope you are enjoying the site, and we look forward to hearing from you.
If you are reading this, we want to hear from you. Ask us a question at baseballfaceoff@gmail.com. If we get enough for a mailbag – that’s an easy column for us, so you are definitely encouraged to contact us. Or start a conversation on our forums. At present we have it set up for administrator approval – we promise to get you approved in short order if you apply.
We do want to hear from anyone reading our columns, hear your suggestions, and gather some general feedback. So please go to http://forums.baseballfaceoff.com or send us an email.
Joe and I both enjoyed doing some research and really digging into some lesser-known prospects for our last column. Can you think of any other prospects that will show up in next year’s top 100s? I limited myself to just 3 hitters and 3 pitchers. Other players that I considered include Tony Thomas, a second baseman with the Cubs system, Kevin Ahrens, third baseman for the Blue Jays, Aneury Rodriguez from the Rockies, Cole Rohrbough, pitcher for the Braves, and a few very young players like Michael Almanzar, an infielder for the Red Sox, and other guys with birthdays in the 90s.
Hope you are enjoying the site, and we look forward to hearing from you.
Next Year's Hot Prospects
Originally Posted March 13
Part 1 of 2
Joe,
As you know, we’ve been prepping for the minor league draft in one of our fantasy leagues. Like any league with a deep minor league system, by the end of the draft, we’ll be on our own to figure out the best picks. Once you get past the top 100 from the publication of your choice it can be difficult to figure out how players compare to each other. The players most teams will consider are likely to be high-risk, but also high-reward. If you can find next year’s highly rated prospects, not only have you found a good player, but also a very valuable trade chip.
This week, Joe and I will face off over players likely to make big leaps and explode to top prospect status by the time 2009 lists come out. We’ll each pick 3 hitters and 3 pitchers (already signed by major league teams) that we expect to show up on top 100 lists next year, but cannot be found on the current lists from Baseball America or Baseball Prospectus. When next year’s lists comes out the other people in your league will marvel that you found these hidden gems before they had heard of them.
Hitters:
With hitters, there are a couple of factors that may cause them to be overlooked. A lack of defensive ability impacts most rankings you will see. But wait… you’re playing fantasy baseball and unless your league counts defensive stats, it doesn’t matter. It can matter if all your prospects end up as 1B/DH types, but it isn’t a big deal to have one or two. The other factors could be a lack of speed, injuries, or mediocre tools that don’t impress scouts. Yep, you’re going to have to look into some stats.
If you comb the internet or maybe leaf through a book about prospects (Basball America, Baseball Prospectus, John Sickels, etc.) you’ll be able to get an idea of why some guy who hits a ton isn’t high on the lists. They’ll point out a flaw – or the player may simply be too inexperienced to earn a high ranking. There is actually at least one more type of player who you might identify – the one with all kinds of tools who may suddenly put them all together and become a top player. Below are three players that I think have a good chance of exploding onto the scene this season.
Mat Gamel, Third Baseman, Milwaukee Brewers
This lefty-swinging infielder, born July 26, 1985, is, according to Baseball America is “a professional hitter” with developing power. In the Florida State League (high-A level) He hit .300 last year, walked 58 times in 128 games, hit 9 homers, and slugged .472. In 2006 he hit 17 home runs. His flaw? Apparently he can’t throw the ball across the infield. He made 53 errors last season, and can’t seem to get his defense together.
He is a talented hitter, with a decent eye, and a fairly modest strikeout rate. He even has a bit of speed (14 steals last year). He was the MVP of the Hawaiian Winter League this offseason, where he swatted 8 homers in 33 games. He is a tremendous hitting prospect.
According to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, the Brewers are committed to helping him improve his third-base defense at AA this season. If he can improve it, he might even challenge for the big league job in 2009. No matter what his offense should continue to improve, and the prospect community will take notice.
Nick Weglarz, Outfield, Cleveland Indians
Left-handed hitting and throwing, Weglarz won’t turn 21 until December. He played right field last season, but seems like the type that may end up at left field or first base because of his reportedly limited range and weak arm. But, boy oh boy does he have a good bat.
As a 19 year old in the South Atlantic League (low-A level), he hit 24 homers and walked 83 times in 127 games. He hit .274, but his OBP was .388. There isn’t much information out there on Weglarz, but if he hits 20+ home runs this year in high-A ball, you can expect him to rocket up the rankings. The Indians will make room for his bat when he’s ready. These are the numbers that make fantasy owners think of Nick Swisher and Adam Dunn. He’s an especially good player for OBP leagues.
Dominic Brown, Outfield, Philadelphia Phillies
Brown was a 20th round pick in 2007, but dropped that far only because teams thought he was going to Miami to play wide receiver. He’s athletic, hits and throws left-handed, stands 6 ft 5, and won’t turn 21 until September. He’s a five-tool player, with all the potential in the world. But he’s very raw at this point. So far his production has been so-so – He hit .295 in the short season A New York Penn League last season, with an impressive 4-9 stint in the Florida State League (High A level), but only hit 4 home runs in about 300 at bats. He walked a few times and didn’t strike out at a super high level.
Baseball America calls him the Phillies’ “right fielder of the future,” but say he might take more than two years to get there. He’s one of those guys that might put everything together and become a household name very soon. He might also never make it past AA. He’s a long shot, but a long shot that some people compare to Darryl Strawberry.
And he runs a 60-yard dash in 6.6 seconds.
And should develop big power. See, he’s awfully tempting.
Pitchers:
Pitchers are notoriously difficult to project. One injury can ruin their careers, and, like hitters, they also face tougher competition with each promotion. In trying to project pitchers likely to become top prospects be sure to look at scouting reports first. It is rare for a top prospect to have mediocre stuff, though some manage to get by with control and guile. After confirming that someone has good stuff, you want to focus on guys with high strikeout rates and strikeout to walk ratios. That’s about all you can go on. But for the players below that may be enough to project that they’ll become top prospects by 2009.
Julio Teheran, Right Handed Starter, Atlanta Braves
You might not have heard of this pitcher yet. That’s okay, he turned 17 about 6 weeks ago. Baseball America said he has the best fastball in the Atlanta system. And really, that’s enough for me. If he plays in one of the rookie leagues this summer, then he’ll have measurable stats. If he shines, like someone with the stuff he’s supposed to have should, then he will be on the lists next year. He’ll be a year younger than most high school pitchers taken in the 2008 draft. I mean, he’s 17, throws 95, and his changeup and curve are said to be solid. He could explode onto the scene this year.
Danny Duffy, Left Handed Starter, Kansas City Royals
Duffy was a third round pick last summer. He will turn 20 in December, and can hit 95 with his fastball. Baseball America expects him to add, get this, more velocity. Apparently he is quite raw presently, but he struck out 63 guys in 37 innings last year, a stunning 15.2 Ks per 9. If he gets anywhere near repeating those numbers, people will soon be talking about him all the time.
Chris Withrow, Right Handed Starter, Los Angeles Dodgers
I was thinking about picking another lefthander who pitches for the Braves named Cole Rohrbrough, but I figure Withrow is destined to have a really excellent minor league career, like a bunch of other recent Dodger pitching prospects. I can’t say that’s an ironclad, evidence-based conclusion, but it has a certain pattern behind it. The Dodgers have produced a ton of big pitching prospects recently (a bunch of them have fallen injured, but they do impress). After being picked in the first round last year, he pitched a handful of innings in the Gulf Coast League, but not enough to make any real conclusions. Other than his fastball (likely to pick up more velocity), and his curve and change (which project to be good), he’s a bit raw. But after a good season in low-A he’ll be highly rated.
Most times when you draft prospects, you are prognosticating. It’s tough to predict major league production based on AA or AAA stats, let alone for players who may not have played a full season of pro ball. But, considering the type of prospects who are likely to succeed and also to impress scouts, you can make an educated guess to get the most out of your late draft pick.
This is our 4th season, and given the fact that 54 players go every year, we have to do our own research near the end. Sometimes it’s a good idea to skip over the uncertainty of inexperienced players and pick one of the low ceiling guys who are leftover (or one you think is low ceiling – no one took Dan Uggla a couple of years ago). It’s really a roll of the dice, but if your pick comes through the benefits will make up for a couple of failed longshots.
Faceoff
Posted March 24 by Joseph
Part 2 of 2
Chris,
I love your picks, especially Weglarz and Gamel. Sounds like you did your homework, and I’d like to remind our readers that this is what it takes to draft that someone special. Here are my selections for guys that didn’t finish in the BP or BA Top 100 lists that I see vaulting up in the near future. Before I give my picks, I want to remind you that even though I’m predicting a Top 100 in these prospects’ futures, I do not necessarily expect them to sustain success commensurate with other successful Top 100 graduates. I’m not trying to qualify my picks here; I’m just trying to remind you that I’m selecting guys that I think will end up on a Top 100 list, but not necessarily play in an all-star game.
Hitters:
Christian Santana, C, Rangers System- Baseball America quotes a Rangers official as saying that Santana is “Raul Mondesi, if you put him behind the plate.” Hmm…makes me think that I’d like one or two of those on my team. Yes, Texas is loaded with catching prospects, but don’t let that bother you too much in this case. Would you really be disappointed with “Raul Mondesi, if you put him at center field?” I didn’t think so. It’s worth noting that at least a handful of teams pursued Santana with that intention (playing CF). If Santana does stick at catcher and develops power as expected, this guy could be something special. Look, positions of scarcity (catcher, second base, shortstop, and even center and right field) are hard to fill, if you can do it with someone out of your farm system, you’re ahead of the game. Santana is 19 years old as of opening day this year. Santana was 20th on Baseball America’s list of Rangers prospects. He did not make Baseball Prospectus’ list of the Top 11 Rangers prospects.
Max Ramirez, C?, Rangers System- Another Rangers catcher? Well, maybe. Max Ramirez can hit. John Sickels believes it. Baseball America believes it. So why shouldn’t you? Well, maybe (probably) he doesn’t stay at catcher and becomes an outfielder or a third baseman. Wouldn’t you take that over a guy who, if he fails at his current position, has nowhere to go? It’s also worth mentioning that if Ramirez does reach the majors with Texas, he’ll be playing in a good hitter’s ballpark (as does Santana). But this is about shooting up the prospect rankings, and my guess is that Ramirez stays at catcher for another year and continues to rake (his minor league OPS is .895, but has been higher in A-ball than it was in rookie ball). He’s not the youngest prospect (23 years old), but he certainly could explode onto the scene in AA this year. Ramirez was 23rd on Baseball America’s list of Rangers prospects. He was 10th on Baseball Prospectus’ list of the Top 11 Rangers prospects.
Jesus Montero, C, Yankees System- A catcher with plus-plus power is hard to find. Like Ramirez and Santana, Montero may eventually find his home at a position other than catcher. But the Yankees seem committed to leaving Montero at catcher for the time being, and this means that he’ll be evaluated with that potential in mind. He is just 18 years old, and even if he doesn’t reach the lofty comparisons to Travis Hafner as a hitter, he should shoot onto those Top 100 lists as he starts to move through the Yankee system (he spent 2007 in the Gulf Coast League). Montero was ranked 6th on Baseball America’s list of Yankees prospects. He was 7th on Baseball Prospectus’ list of the Top 11 Yankees prospects.
Others to watch: Oscar Tejada (BOS), Carlos Peguero (SEA), Ben Revere (MIN), Will Venable (SD)
Pitchers:
James McDonald, RHP, Dodgers System- The pitcher-turned-outfielder-turned-pitcher exploded onto the prospect scene after striking out 168 in 134 IP in High-A and Double-A ball in 2007. He posted a respectable 3.95 ERA in 82 innings of High-A ball, but really established himself with a 1.71 ERA (and 64 of those Ks) in 52 IP in Double-A. Maybe his stuff won’t allow him to become a front-of-the-rotation starter, but he strikes guys out and has been successful when he’s been healthy enough to pitch (the Dodgers moved him into the outfield following arm troubles in 2003). He’s only 23 years old, despite his circuitous path to prospect status, so another good year could land him high on the Top 100 lists next year. McDonald was ranked 7th on Baseball America’s list of Dodgers prospects. He was 5th on Baseball Prospectus’ list of the Top 11 Dodgers prospects.
Robert Hernandez, RHP, Cubs System- Sometimes you like a guy because of a description of his “stuff”. Sometimes you like him because he has a “bulldog mentality”. Sometimes you like him because Carlos Zambrano has decided to tutor him on the finer points of pitching and is already boasting about the 19 year old righty. Hernandez pitched well in Low-A ball last year, striking out 71 and walking just 28 as the youngest pitcher in the Midwest league. If he adds velocity as his body fills out, or if he finds a third pitch, he should find himself on those Top 100 lists next year. Hernandez was ranked 17th on Baseball America’s list of Cubs prospects. He did not make Baseball Prospectus’ list of the Top 11 Cubs prospects.
Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Giants System-When you’re drafted 10th overall, it’s hard to slip under the radar, but it seems that Bumgarner did just that. Whether it is his low three-quarters arm slot or his lack of established secondary pitches, Bumgarner missed both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus’ Top 100 lists. Bumgarner throws pure gas (his fastball sits in the low- to mid- nineties and has touched 96 or 97), and should dominate as a 6’4” lefthander when his secondary pitches come along. A personal favorite, Bumgarner was ranked 3rd on Baseball America’s list of Giants prospects. He was 4th on Baseball Prospectus’ list of the Top 11 Giants prospects.
Others to watch: Jake Arrieta (BAL), Mark Melancon (NYY), Henry Rodriguez (Oak), Jose Ceda (ChC)
Remember, you shouldn't take one of these guys ahead of already established guys on the upper part of a Top 100 list, but when your taking a flyer, you can't go wrong with one of the guys above.
Part 1 of 2
Joe,
As you know, we’ve been prepping for the minor league draft in one of our fantasy leagues. Like any league with a deep minor league system, by the end of the draft, we’ll be on our own to figure out the best picks. Once you get past the top 100 from the publication of your choice it can be difficult to figure out how players compare to each other. The players most teams will consider are likely to be high-risk, but also high-reward. If you can find next year’s highly rated prospects, not only have you found a good player, but also a very valuable trade chip.
This week, Joe and I will face off over players likely to make big leaps and explode to top prospect status by the time 2009 lists come out. We’ll each pick 3 hitters and 3 pitchers (already signed by major league teams) that we expect to show up on top 100 lists next year, but cannot be found on the current lists from Baseball America or Baseball Prospectus. When next year’s lists comes out the other people in your league will marvel that you found these hidden gems before they had heard of them.
Hitters:
With hitters, there are a couple of factors that may cause them to be overlooked. A lack of defensive ability impacts most rankings you will see. But wait… you’re playing fantasy baseball and unless your league counts defensive stats, it doesn’t matter. It can matter if all your prospects end up as 1B/DH types, but it isn’t a big deal to have one or two. The other factors could be a lack of speed, injuries, or mediocre tools that don’t impress scouts. Yep, you’re going to have to look into some stats.
If you comb the internet or maybe leaf through a book about prospects (Basball America, Baseball Prospectus, John Sickels, etc.) you’ll be able to get an idea of why some guy who hits a ton isn’t high on the lists. They’ll point out a flaw – or the player may simply be too inexperienced to earn a high ranking. There is actually at least one more type of player who you might identify – the one with all kinds of tools who may suddenly put them all together and become a top player. Below are three players that I think have a good chance of exploding onto the scene this season.
Mat Gamel, Third Baseman, Milwaukee Brewers
This lefty-swinging infielder, born July 26, 1985, is, according to Baseball America is “a professional hitter” with developing power. In the Florida State League (high-A level) He hit .300 last year, walked 58 times in 128 games, hit 9 homers, and slugged .472. In 2006 he hit 17 home runs. His flaw? Apparently he can’t throw the ball across the infield. He made 53 errors last season, and can’t seem to get his defense together.
He is a talented hitter, with a decent eye, and a fairly modest strikeout rate. He even has a bit of speed (14 steals last year). He was the MVP of the Hawaiian Winter League this offseason, where he swatted 8 homers in 33 games. He is a tremendous hitting prospect.
According to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, the Brewers are committed to helping him improve his third-base defense at AA this season. If he can improve it, he might even challenge for the big league job in 2009. No matter what his offense should continue to improve, and the prospect community will take notice.
Nick Weglarz, Outfield, Cleveland Indians
Left-handed hitting and throwing, Weglarz won’t turn 21 until December. He played right field last season, but seems like the type that may end up at left field or first base because of his reportedly limited range and weak arm. But, boy oh boy does he have a good bat.
As a 19 year old in the South Atlantic League (low-A level), he hit 24 homers and walked 83 times in 127 games. He hit .274, but his OBP was .388. There isn’t much information out there on Weglarz, but if he hits 20+ home runs this year in high-A ball, you can expect him to rocket up the rankings. The Indians will make room for his bat when he’s ready. These are the numbers that make fantasy owners think of Nick Swisher and Adam Dunn. He’s an especially good player for OBP leagues.
Dominic Brown, Outfield, Philadelphia Phillies
Brown was a 20th round pick in 2007, but dropped that far only because teams thought he was going to Miami to play wide receiver. He’s athletic, hits and throws left-handed, stands 6 ft 5, and won’t turn 21 until September. He’s a five-tool player, with all the potential in the world. But he’s very raw at this point. So far his production has been so-so – He hit .295 in the short season A New York Penn League last season, with an impressive 4-9 stint in the Florida State League (High A level), but only hit 4 home runs in about 300 at bats. He walked a few times and didn’t strike out at a super high level.
Baseball America calls him the Phillies’ “right fielder of the future,” but say he might take more than two years to get there. He’s one of those guys that might put everything together and become a household name very soon. He might also never make it past AA. He’s a long shot, but a long shot that some people compare to Darryl Strawberry.
And he runs a 60-yard dash in 6.6 seconds.
And should develop big power. See, he’s awfully tempting.
Pitchers:
Pitchers are notoriously difficult to project. One injury can ruin their careers, and, like hitters, they also face tougher competition with each promotion. In trying to project pitchers likely to become top prospects be sure to look at scouting reports first. It is rare for a top prospect to have mediocre stuff, though some manage to get by with control and guile. After confirming that someone has good stuff, you want to focus on guys with high strikeout rates and strikeout to walk ratios. That’s about all you can go on. But for the players below that may be enough to project that they’ll become top prospects by 2009.
Julio Teheran, Right Handed Starter, Atlanta Braves
You might not have heard of this pitcher yet. That’s okay, he turned 17 about 6 weeks ago. Baseball America said he has the best fastball in the Atlanta system. And really, that’s enough for me. If he plays in one of the rookie leagues this summer, then he’ll have measurable stats. If he shines, like someone with the stuff he’s supposed to have should, then he will be on the lists next year. He’ll be a year younger than most high school pitchers taken in the 2008 draft. I mean, he’s 17, throws 95, and his changeup and curve are said to be solid. He could explode onto the scene this year.
Danny Duffy, Left Handed Starter, Kansas City Royals
Duffy was a third round pick last summer. He will turn 20 in December, and can hit 95 with his fastball. Baseball America expects him to add, get this, more velocity. Apparently he is quite raw presently, but he struck out 63 guys in 37 innings last year, a stunning 15.2 Ks per 9. If he gets anywhere near repeating those numbers, people will soon be talking about him all the time.
Chris Withrow, Right Handed Starter, Los Angeles Dodgers
I was thinking about picking another lefthander who pitches for the Braves named Cole Rohrbrough, but I figure Withrow is destined to have a really excellent minor league career, like a bunch of other recent Dodger pitching prospects. I can’t say that’s an ironclad, evidence-based conclusion, but it has a certain pattern behind it. The Dodgers have produced a ton of big pitching prospects recently (a bunch of them have fallen injured, but they do impress). After being picked in the first round last year, he pitched a handful of innings in the Gulf Coast League, but not enough to make any real conclusions. Other than his fastball (likely to pick up more velocity), and his curve and change (which project to be good), he’s a bit raw. But after a good season in low-A he’ll be highly rated.
Most times when you draft prospects, you are prognosticating. It’s tough to predict major league production based on AA or AAA stats, let alone for players who may not have played a full season of pro ball. But, considering the type of prospects who are likely to succeed and also to impress scouts, you can make an educated guess to get the most out of your late draft pick.
This is our 4th season, and given the fact that 54 players go every year, we have to do our own research near the end. Sometimes it’s a good idea to skip over the uncertainty of inexperienced players and pick one of the low ceiling guys who are leftover (or one you think is low ceiling – no one took Dan Uggla a couple of years ago). It’s really a roll of the dice, but if your pick comes through the benefits will make up for a couple of failed longshots.
Faceoff
Posted March 24 by Joseph
Part 2 of 2
Chris,
I love your picks, especially Weglarz and Gamel. Sounds like you did your homework, and I’d like to remind our readers that this is what it takes to draft that someone special. Here are my selections for guys that didn’t finish in the BP or BA Top 100 lists that I see vaulting up in the near future. Before I give my picks, I want to remind you that even though I’m predicting a Top 100 in these prospects’ futures, I do not necessarily expect them to sustain success commensurate with other successful Top 100 graduates. I’m not trying to qualify my picks here; I’m just trying to remind you that I’m selecting guys that I think will end up on a Top 100 list, but not necessarily play in an all-star game.
Hitters:
Christian Santana, C, Rangers System- Baseball America quotes a Rangers official as saying that Santana is “Raul Mondesi, if you put him behind the plate.” Hmm…makes me think that I’d like one or two of those on my team. Yes, Texas is loaded with catching prospects, but don’t let that bother you too much in this case. Would you really be disappointed with “Raul Mondesi, if you put him at center field?” I didn’t think so. It’s worth noting that at least a handful of teams pursued Santana with that intention (playing CF). If Santana does stick at catcher and develops power as expected, this guy could be something special. Look, positions of scarcity (catcher, second base, shortstop, and even center and right field) are hard to fill, if you can do it with someone out of your farm system, you’re ahead of the game. Santana is 19 years old as of opening day this year. Santana was 20th on Baseball America’s list of Rangers prospects. He did not make Baseball Prospectus’ list of the Top 11 Rangers prospects.
Max Ramirez, C?, Rangers System- Another Rangers catcher? Well, maybe. Max Ramirez can hit. John Sickels believes it. Baseball America believes it. So why shouldn’t you? Well, maybe (probably) he doesn’t stay at catcher and becomes an outfielder or a third baseman. Wouldn’t you take that over a guy who, if he fails at his current position, has nowhere to go? It’s also worth mentioning that if Ramirez does reach the majors with Texas, he’ll be playing in a good hitter’s ballpark (as does Santana). But this is about shooting up the prospect rankings, and my guess is that Ramirez stays at catcher for another year and continues to rake (his minor league OPS is .895, but has been higher in A-ball than it was in rookie ball). He’s not the youngest prospect (23 years old), but he certainly could explode onto the scene in AA this year. Ramirez was 23rd on Baseball America’s list of Rangers prospects. He was 10th on Baseball Prospectus’ list of the Top 11 Rangers prospects.
Jesus Montero, C, Yankees System- A catcher with plus-plus power is hard to find. Like Ramirez and Santana, Montero may eventually find his home at a position other than catcher. But the Yankees seem committed to leaving Montero at catcher for the time being, and this means that he’ll be evaluated with that potential in mind. He is just 18 years old, and even if he doesn’t reach the lofty comparisons to Travis Hafner as a hitter, he should shoot onto those Top 100 lists as he starts to move through the Yankee system (he spent 2007 in the Gulf Coast League). Montero was ranked 6th on Baseball America’s list of Yankees prospects. He was 7th on Baseball Prospectus’ list of the Top 11 Yankees prospects.
Others to watch: Oscar Tejada (BOS), Carlos Peguero (SEA), Ben Revere (MIN), Will Venable (SD)
Pitchers:
James McDonald, RHP, Dodgers System- The pitcher-turned-outfielder-turned-pitcher exploded onto the prospect scene after striking out 168 in 134 IP in High-A and Double-A ball in 2007. He posted a respectable 3.95 ERA in 82 innings of High-A ball, but really established himself with a 1.71 ERA (and 64 of those Ks) in 52 IP in Double-A. Maybe his stuff won’t allow him to become a front-of-the-rotation starter, but he strikes guys out and has been successful when he’s been healthy enough to pitch (the Dodgers moved him into the outfield following arm troubles in 2003). He’s only 23 years old, despite his circuitous path to prospect status, so another good year could land him high on the Top 100 lists next year. McDonald was ranked 7th on Baseball America’s list of Dodgers prospects. He was 5th on Baseball Prospectus’ list of the Top 11 Dodgers prospects.
Robert Hernandez, RHP, Cubs System- Sometimes you like a guy because of a description of his “stuff”. Sometimes you like him because he has a “bulldog mentality”. Sometimes you like him because Carlos Zambrano has decided to tutor him on the finer points of pitching and is already boasting about the 19 year old righty. Hernandez pitched well in Low-A ball last year, striking out 71 and walking just 28 as the youngest pitcher in the Midwest league. If he adds velocity as his body fills out, or if he finds a third pitch, he should find himself on those Top 100 lists next year. Hernandez was ranked 17th on Baseball America’s list of Cubs prospects. He did not make Baseball Prospectus’ list of the Top 11 Cubs prospects.
Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Giants System-When you’re drafted 10th overall, it’s hard to slip under the radar, but it seems that Bumgarner did just that. Whether it is his low three-quarters arm slot or his lack of established secondary pitches, Bumgarner missed both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus’ Top 100 lists. Bumgarner throws pure gas (his fastball sits in the low- to mid- nineties and has touched 96 or 97), and should dominate as a 6’4” lefthander when his secondary pitches come along. A personal favorite, Bumgarner was ranked 3rd on Baseball America’s list of Giants prospects. He was 4th on Baseball Prospectus’ list of the Top 11 Giants prospects.
Others to watch: Jake Arrieta (BAL), Mark Melancon (NYY), Henry Rodriguez (Oak), Jose Ceda (ChC)
Remember, you shouldn't take one of these guys ahead of already established guys on the upper part of a Top 100 list, but when your taking a flyer, you can't go wrong with one of the guys above.
Picking Keepers
Originally posted March 7, 2008
Part I of II
Note: Joe wrote this before he had to submit his keepers.
Chris,
I always find it difficult trying to balance trying to find those amazing keepers of the future with winning in the current season. I often find myself working backward, thinking that my young team will eventually develop into something, only to find it on the precipice of being competitive as I reach the trade deadline, then having to make a decision of giving up my future in the hopes of winning now, but working from behind (as I'm on the outside looking in). In one league
in particular, I find myself making keeper decisions that, in retrospect, have me cringing. It is important to remember that when you look at your past mistakes, you are doing so not to torture
yourself, but to learn from those mistakes. I took over a very poor team in a 10 team (now a 12 team) H2H keeper league in 2004 (keepers included Trot Nixon, Woody Williams, Rafael Palmeiro, Matt Morris, Hideo Nomo, Jeff Bagwell, and Ugueth Urbina), but a strong draft (Josh
Beckett, Jose Reyes, Carl Crawford, Aramis Ramirez, and Jake Peavy) quickly put me in contention. I was very active in the trade market, and gave away Jake Peavy to Chris as a throw-in in a trade (for Aubrey Huff), but I learned a lot in my first foray into fantasy baseball with keepers. For this article, I've decided to show you what I've done in the past, and evaluate the decisions I've made each year, then I'll explain my keeper strategy from now onward. It is important to know that you can keep players in this league in perpetuity and that the number of keepers has settled at eight (it was previously ten). The league is a 7X7 league with the standard hitting categories plus strikeouts and OPS and the standard pitching categories with losses and home runs allowed. It is an intriguing format, because you must balance the hitting categories with how many times a player strikes out (obviously the fewer the better) and the pitching categories with home runs allowed and losses (again, the fewer the better). We also start a LF, CF, and RF (instead of 3 OF).
Viable Candidates for Keepers for 2005:
Rocco Baldelli
*Eric Chavez
*Carl Crawford
Rafael Furcal
Chone Figgins
*Travis Hafner
*Aubrey Huff
Jorge Posada
*Aramis Ramirez
David Wright
*Josh Beckett
*Rich Harden
*Oliver Perez
C.C. Sabathia
*Carl Pavano
*Barry Zito
In retrospect, it was unfortunate that I had not yet realized that one good year does not a good fantasy player make. Chone Figgins, Jorge Posada, C.C. Sabathia, and David Wright certainly look much better than Eric Chavez, Aubrey Huff, Oliver Perez, and Carl Pavano. Barry
Zito and Rich Harden don't look good today, but they were solid keepers in 2005. I remember agonizing over whom to keep out of Wright, Ramirez, and Chavez, and knowing that keeping three 3B was not reasonable. I knew that David Wright had a good career ahead of him, but certainly did not expect Chavez to decline like he did.
Viable Candidates for Keepers for 2006:
*Jason Bay
*Jorge Cantu
Robinson Cano
*Travis Hafner
*Hideki Matsui
Justin Morneau
*Jhonny Peralta
Ivan Rodriguez
*Scott Rolen
*Grady Sizemore
Jeremy Bonderman
Matt Cain
*Felix Hernandez
Scott Kazmir
Wow, Robinson Cano certainly looks better than Jorge Cantu. This was certainly a tough decision as well, but I actually hesitated to keep Cano because I am a Yankee fan. I believe that inherently we have a bias for players on our favorite team, and so when I evaluate two talents as equal and one is a Yankee, I generally keep the other. I still hadn't completely learned my lesson in terms of the one-year-wonders (Cantu, Peralta).
Viable Candidates for Keepers for 2007:
Curtis Granderson
*Travis Hafner
Howie Kendrick
Russell Martin
*Hideki Matsui
*Hanley Ramirez
*Scott Rolen
Rickie Weeks
*Delmon Young
*Jeremy Bonderman
*Felix Hernandez
*Scott Kazmir
Dontrelle Willis
Joel Zumaya
Not much to say here, other than the fact that I wish I'd have known that Russell Martin would steal 21 bases last year. I really never seriously considered keeping him. By this time, I was really sick and tired of keeping young pitching hoping that one might turn into an ace pitcher (Bonderman, Kazmir, Felix). This frustration reared its ugly head during the season in 2007 when I traded most of my young, developing players for more established talent and I certainly do not regret it.
Viable Keeper Candidates for 2008:
Billy Butler
Jermaine Dye
Torii Hunter
Derek Jeter
Ian Kinsler
Paul Konerko
Hideki Matsui
Kazuo Matsui
Jorge Posada
Shane Victorino
Ryan Zimmerman
Jeremy Bonderman
Jonathan Broxton
Pedro Martinez
Roy Oswalt
Rafael Soriano
Carlos Zambrano
Tim Hudson
So I guess this is a great time to discuss my keeper strategy for 2008. I’m looking at keeping players that can help me win now, but that still have the upside to help me three years from now. If deciding between two players of relatively similar value, I’ll certainly take into consideration the players’ upside (and age), but it will not be exclusive in my determination. I don’t have any stud rookies from last year (Braun, Pence, Tulowitzki, Gordon, Lincecum, Buchholz, Chamberlain, Hughes, Gallardo, Upton, C. Young, D. Young, etc.) so I’ll explain my thinking with these players following the discussion of the players I will be keeping.
My first keeper will be Derek Jeter. He’s not equivalent to a first rounder, but I must keep eight guys. In this league, Jeter will contribute in every category while maintaining a good OPS and AVG. As a shortstop, he’s a must keep. Roy Oswalt will be my second keeper. I love the consistency that he provides every year. He is certainly an elite starting pitcher in my eyes. Carlos Zambrano will be the third of my keepers for 2008. While he does not pitch consistently from one game to the next, he certainly can rack up strikeouts and wins while not completely destroying your WHIP. Jorge Posada will also be one of my keepers in 2008. His power numbers are fantastic for a catcher, and I believe that the light workload he maintained early in his career will translate into him staying effective far beyond where most catchers fall off. Torii Hunter will also be one of my keepers this year. He contributes in all categories and again, doesn’t hurt you in AVG or OPS. As a CF, he’s a very valuable asset. After these five guys, things get a little interesting, and I think that I will actually start to eliminate players (and explain why I do so) as I decide upon my last three keepers.
Tim Hudson had a wonderful 2007, but his value is much lower than an eighth round pick in a H2H draft, so I will not be keeping him especially as he does not dominate any categories. Pedro Martinez has all the ability in the world, but demonstrated it last a few years ago; injuries and age steer me away from him. I believe that Jonathan Broxton will one day become a dominant closer. I just expect that day to be a few years away. Kaz Matusi broke out last year with over thirty stolen bases, but his excellent speed is not as valuable as Ian Kinsler’s power/speed combination. Billy Butler will be a star. That’s my take on the kid. But I feel that his power is still developing so he won’t help me much now, and he’ll eventually DH full-time, limiting his future value. For now, I will let him go. Jeremy Bonderman is still just 25 years old, but he has yet to deliver a sub-4.00 ERA season. I cannot justify keeping him again hoping that he will not destroy my ERA and WHIP. I love Jermaine Dye as a sleeper heading into this year, but I think I can get him later in most drafts (think rounds 10-12). I’ll jump all over him then, but for now, I’ll have to let him go. I’ve narrowed my last keepers down to three of Hideki Matsui, Shane Victorino, Paul Konerko, Ian Kinsler, Ryan Zimmerman, and Rafael Soriano. Let’s take a closer look at these six guys:
Rafael Soriano should be the closer for the Atlanta Braves next season. He has great strikeout potential and can help my team’s ERA and WHIP. I am worried that he was not pegged as an exclusive closer when J.J. Putz went down when he was in Seattle or when Wickman was sent off last year in Atlanta.
Hideki Matsui should settle in at about 25 HR and 100 RBI (with great runs scored as well) in that potent Yankees lineup. While he is growing older, I love the fact that his strikeouts will be fairly low compared to his productivity.
Ryan Zimmerman is going to be a fantastic third baseman. Defensively, he is amazing. Offensively, he strikes out too much and has limited power potential. The new ballpark in Washington should be a little more hitter friendly and the kid is still just 23 years old so he could be a good keeper and he might be a great keeper.
Paul Konkero has hit 41, 40, 35, and 31 HR in his last four seasons. He won’t pick up any stolen bases, but he’ll likely drive in 100 runs while striking out about 100 times (a reasonably low number for a power hitter).
I expect that Ian Kinsler will reach 20 HR many times in his career, but I certainly do not expect that he will reach 20+ SB again. Position scarcity definitely increases his value here.
Shane Victorino, “The Flyin’ Hawaiian”, just might steal 40 bases this year and could very well give you 10 HR as well. On the other hand, I certainly have bought into quite a few players who have an excellent breakout year and never replicate the feat (Oliver Perez, Carl Pavano, Jorge Cantu, etc.). I’m really nervous that Victorino is “that guy”. I do love his LF, CF, RF eligibility in my league.
Thankfully, I don’t have to make my final decision until March 1st, but if I had to choose today, I’d keep Kinsler, Zimmerman, and Matsui (I’m really torn between Konerko and Matsui. Every time I type one name, I go back and delete it and type the other name.). This is no knock on Soriano or Victorino; I just feel that the upside of Kinsler and Zimmerman certainly puts them in a higher category than the other four, and Matsui and Konerko have a long history of excellent performance that would make me much more at ease with either selection.
I promised you my take on the excellent 2nd year players (Braun, Pence, Tulowitzki, Gordon, Lincecum, Buchholz, Chamberlain, Hughes, Gallardo, Upton, C. Young, D. Young etc.) and their value as keepers. I believe that Braun, Tulowitzki, and C. Young, of these players, will contribute the most in 2008. I don’t see Braun’s ceiling as much higher than what he produced last year, but what he produced was great. I love Chris Young as a keeper not only because he approached a 30/30 season in his rookie year, but also because even if he drops off in one of those categories, he is unlikely to significantly drop off in both. This minimizes your risk. I think Tulowitzki should have been the NL ROY this past year. Getting 24 HR out of a first year shortstop is really fantastic. He is what Bobby Crosby was supposed to be. Of the “other” guys, I think you have to evaluate them on a case-by-case basis. I love Joba Chamberlain and think he’ll become a dominant starting pitcher. I also think he’ll be on a strict inning limit this year and I also believe that he may struggle in some outings as many prospects do. I think the same can be said for Hughes, Buchholz, Gallardo, and even Homer Bailey. They may be brilliant one outing, but have a disastrous start the next. Delmon Young, Justin Upton, and Hunter Pence are all likely to become stars, eventually. Certainly feel free to keep one of these guys, especially in deep leagues, but know that there are no guarantees. If the player starts horribly, he may end up back in AAA trying to work out the kinks and you’ll be wishing you still had that unsexy, reliable veteran starter.
When it comes down to it, I think you should almost always take the best player for the upcoming year unless the edge between the younger player and the older player is very slight. I would still (personally) keep Manny Ramirez over Hunter Pence, but I’d certainly keep Ryan Braun over Aramis Ramirez edit: Chris was supposed to replace Ramirez with Justin Morneau. Chris regrets the error. In the end, your keeper strategy should never prevent you from competing in the current year. There will always be the “next big prospect” on the horizon, so always aim to win first and if the time comes that you know you are not in contention, you can always work to improve your keepers for the following year. I’d like to give you a not so subtle reminder that to improve your keepers, you need not only trade established talent for prospects. Instead, look at position scarcity, consistent players having a bad year (or a bad start!), and even still-contributing veterans from teams that are also out of contention. Identify two or three potential targets and do your best to go get them without touching any of your other keepers to do so.
Finally, feel free to join more than one keeper league and certainly join more than one fantasy baseball league (but only join what you can handle!). This way, you can distribute your must have players amongst all of your leagues. Certainly it can’t hurt you to have at least one upside player on your roster every year, and the more leagues you participate in, the more guys you can snag without having it affect you in the standings.
Here are a few guys that I think have more keeper value than you expect, and a few that probably have less than you expect. Assume standard 5X5 league formats for these players.
More value than you’d expect: Paul Konerko, Lance Berkman, Jeff Kent, Carlos Guillen, Miguel Tejada, Chipper Jones, Aramis Ramirez, Torii Hunter, Gary Sheffield, Manny Ramirez, Hideki Matsui, Javier Vazquez, John Smoltz, and Brad Penny.
Less value than you’d expect: Ryan Garko, James Loney, B.J. Upton, Stephen Drew, Delmon Young, Cameron Maybin, Jeremy Bonderman, Joba Chamberlain, Tim Lincecum, Daisuke Matsusaka, and Yovani Gallardo.
Part II
March 10, 2008
Joe – We all know that choosing keepers is critical to fantasy success. The chances of a team’s success drop precipitously as keeper quality diminishes. And just like when you build a tower for a friendly game of Jenga, you want to start from a solid foundation. Choosing good keepers makes your job so much easier as a fantasy owner. There’s one thing you want to keep in mind, though. This is not about picking just the best 3 or 5 or however many players from last year’s team. You are trying to build the best team. So write that on the back of your hand, on your forehead, or wherever it will keep your attention. Take a careful look at your league and be sure to think a couple of steps ahead of your competitors.
Here’s a three-point-plan to find the best keepers:
1. Let Probability Be Your Guide
Hitting is more dependable from year to year than pitching. When you consider keepers, favor hitters over pitchers. Don’t feel that you must keep a certain number of pitchers. If you think they are worth more than your alternatives, you should pick the pitcher – but even better than average starters and closers are always replaceable in a draft. Your team will probably be better if you keep a hitter in the top ten at his position than a starter like Gil Meche or a closer like Joe Borowski. Ian Kinsler, for example, is a better keeper than either of these pitchers. Not over Erik Bedard or Scott Kazmir, of course, but over quite a few pitchers. Don’t be afraid to go into the auction pitcher-less. You will be able to put a staff together, even if your keepers are not well rounded.
Don’t prostrate yourself at the altar of upside. It’s fine to take a flyer on a young player to improve, or on a player to repeat an out-of-nowhere season (like Eric Byrnes). Just don’t fill your team with a bunch of guys that just had career years or guys like Alex Gordon who would have to significantly improve to be worth your while. Just be careful not to expect too much from your players. Sometimes a guy like Aramis Ramirez who produces year in and year out at a predictable level is ideal. Can you count on Byrnes to steal 50 bases again? It’s hard to say, so don’t keep him thinking that you are going to get the same production. Be careful expecting players to improve to fulfill their promise, or to match that once-in-a-lifetime production.
2. Know Your League
It always kills me when teams keep guys just because they are ranked highly on some fantasy expert’s list. Make sure you take your league’s specific rules into account. If your league counts OBP, and not batting average – a guy like Adam Dunn or Nick Swisher is worth a lot more – and should be more highly valued because of it. And that’s a really easy thing to do. Some other stats take a little more effort to figure out, but if you look for guys who stand out because of a non-5 x 5 category used in your league, you’ll be better prepared for the draft and better able to choose your keepers.
If you knew who was going to be available when you drafted, wouldn’t that help you prepare? If you have been playing in the same league for a few years, try to figure out the tendencies of your competitors. Does Jim always go for hot prospects? Does Bill overdraft closers? It’s worth using those clues because they can help you figure out who will be available when you draft. And, are you likely to get any players back if you let them go into the draft.
In the same vein, there are several other issues worth considering when picking keepers:
• Know the rules for position eligibility. Does 5, 10, or 20 games played at a second position give you a player to plug in at multiple points in your lineup to allow a bit more flexibility?
• Does your league make a distinction between starters and relievers? If so – that’s something subtle that can help you out. Every year, it seem like there’s a guy who closes who qualifies as a starter. There’s no one tremendous this year, but it’s worth thinking about most years.
• Don’t overvalue relievers. Usually you are better off not keeping any and picking one up later when you draft. Given the volatility of the position – you can always pick up saves during the year. This seems to be the big theme for all the fantasy experts this off-season. I’m starting to wonder if it might be worth grabbing top relievers if they start dropping. Probably not. Be careful – when in doubt take a hitter or starter over a closer.
3. Preparation is Key
You’ll have better keepers and a better draft if you prepare beforehand. If you want to do well in your league, spend a few hours reviewing whatever information you can get your hands on. Go to a stats website and figure out for yourself what kind of players are going to be available in the draft. Then compare those players to everyone you might keep. If your potential keeper isn’t any better than several players that might be available – keep someone else! This is terribly important and stands by itself. So I only have one bullet point here:
• If you are looking at starters, look at guys that increased their strikeout to walk ratio last season. They might not have had great overall results, but have a great chance of putting it all together this year. That can be the difference between grabbing Aaron Harang before he broke out a couple of years ago, and someone solid, but without a lot of upside, like Derek Lowe.
Choosing your keepers is really the first step in the fantasy baseball season. If you pick the correct players your team will be in better shape to succeed this season. Just remember that my main thesis for this article was inspired by Kurt Russell’s portrayal of Herb Brooks in Miracle. It’s all about preparation and grabbing not just the best players, but the right ones.
Part I of II
Note: Joe wrote this before he had to submit his keepers.
Chris,
I always find it difficult trying to balance trying to find those amazing keepers of the future with winning in the current season. I often find myself working backward, thinking that my young team will eventually develop into something, only to find it on the precipice of being competitive as I reach the trade deadline, then having to make a decision of giving up my future in the hopes of winning now, but working from behind (as I'm on the outside looking in). In one league
in particular, I find myself making keeper decisions that, in retrospect, have me cringing. It is important to remember that when you look at your past mistakes, you are doing so not to torture
yourself, but to learn from those mistakes. I took over a very poor team in a 10 team (now a 12 team) H2H keeper league in 2004 (keepers included Trot Nixon, Woody Williams, Rafael Palmeiro, Matt Morris, Hideo Nomo, Jeff Bagwell, and Ugueth Urbina), but a strong draft (Josh
Beckett, Jose Reyes, Carl Crawford, Aramis Ramirez, and Jake Peavy) quickly put me in contention. I was very active in the trade market, and gave away Jake Peavy to Chris as a throw-in in a trade (for Aubrey Huff), but I learned a lot in my first foray into fantasy baseball with keepers. For this article, I've decided to show you what I've done in the past, and evaluate the decisions I've made each year, then I'll explain my keeper strategy from now onward. It is important to know that you can keep players in this league in perpetuity and that the number of keepers has settled at eight (it was previously ten). The league is a 7X7 league with the standard hitting categories plus strikeouts and OPS and the standard pitching categories with losses and home runs allowed. It is an intriguing format, because you must balance the hitting categories with how many times a player strikes out (obviously the fewer the better) and the pitching categories with home runs allowed and losses (again, the fewer the better). We also start a LF, CF, and RF (instead of 3 OF).
Viable Candidates for Keepers for 2005:
Rocco Baldelli
*Eric Chavez
*Carl Crawford
Rafael Furcal
Chone Figgins
*Travis Hafner
*Aubrey Huff
Jorge Posada
*Aramis Ramirez
David Wright
*Josh Beckett
*Rich Harden
*Oliver Perez
C.C. Sabathia
*Carl Pavano
*Barry Zito
In retrospect, it was unfortunate that I had not yet realized that one good year does not a good fantasy player make. Chone Figgins, Jorge Posada, C.C. Sabathia, and David Wright certainly look much better than Eric Chavez, Aubrey Huff, Oliver Perez, and Carl Pavano. Barry
Zito and Rich Harden don't look good today, but they were solid keepers in 2005. I remember agonizing over whom to keep out of Wright, Ramirez, and Chavez, and knowing that keeping three 3B was not reasonable. I knew that David Wright had a good career ahead of him, but certainly did not expect Chavez to decline like he did.
Viable Candidates for Keepers for 2006:
*Jason Bay
*Jorge Cantu
Robinson Cano
*Travis Hafner
*Hideki Matsui
Justin Morneau
*Jhonny Peralta
Ivan Rodriguez
*Scott Rolen
*Grady Sizemore
Jeremy Bonderman
Matt Cain
*Felix Hernandez
Scott Kazmir
Wow, Robinson Cano certainly looks better than Jorge Cantu. This was certainly a tough decision as well, but I actually hesitated to keep Cano because I am a Yankee fan. I believe that inherently we have a bias for players on our favorite team, and so when I evaluate two talents as equal and one is a Yankee, I generally keep the other. I still hadn't completely learned my lesson in terms of the one-year-wonders (Cantu, Peralta).
Viable Candidates for Keepers for 2007:
Curtis Granderson
*Travis Hafner
Howie Kendrick
Russell Martin
*Hideki Matsui
*Hanley Ramirez
*Scott Rolen
Rickie Weeks
*Delmon Young
*Jeremy Bonderman
*Felix Hernandez
*Scott Kazmir
Dontrelle Willis
Joel Zumaya
Not much to say here, other than the fact that I wish I'd have known that Russell Martin would steal 21 bases last year. I really never seriously considered keeping him. By this time, I was really sick and tired of keeping young pitching hoping that one might turn into an ace pitcher (Bonderman, Kazmir, Felix). This frustration reared its ugly head during the season in 2007 when I traded most of my young, developing players for more established talent and I certainly do not regret it.
Viable Keeper Candidates for 2008:
Billy Butler
Jermaine Dye
Torii Hunter
Derek Jeter
Ian Kinsler
Paul Konerko
Hideki Matsui
Kazuo Matsui
Jorge Posada
Shane Victorino
Ryan Zimmerman
Jeremy Bonderman
Jonathan Broxton
Pedro Martinez
Roy Oswalt
Rafael Soriano
Carlos Zambrano
Tim Hudson
So I guess this is a great time to discuss my keeper strategy for 2008. I’m looking at keeping players that can help me win now, but that still have the upside to help me three years from now. If deciding between two players of relatively similar value, I’ll certainly take into consideration the players’ upside (and age), but it will not be exclusive in my determination. I don’t have any stud rookies from last year (Braun, Pence, Tulowitzki, Gordon, Lincecum, Buchholz, Chamberlain, Hughes, Gallardo, Upton, C. Young, D. Young, etc.) so I’ll explain my thinking with these players following the discussion of the players I will be keeping.
My first keeper will be Derek Jeter. He’s not equivalent to a first rounder, but I must keep eight guys. In this league, Jeter will contribute in every category while maintaining a good OPS and AVG. As a shortstop, he’s a must keep. Roy Oswalt will be my second keeper. I love the consistency that he provides every year. He is certainly an elite starting pitcher in my eyes. Carlos Zambrano will be the third of my keepers for 2008. While he does not pitch consistently from one game to the next, he certainly can rack up strikeouts and wins while not completely destroying your WHIP. Jorge Posada will also be one of my keepers in 2008. His power numbers are fantastic for a catcher, and I believe that the light workload he maintained early in his career will translate into him staying effective far beyond where most catchers fall off. Torii Hunter will also be one of my keepers this year. He contributes in all categories and again, doesn’t hurt you in AVG or OPS. As a CF, he’s a very valuable asset. After these five guys, things get a little interesting, and I think that I will actually start to eliminate players (and explain why I do so) as I decide upon my last three keepers.
Tim Hudson had a wonderful 2007, but his value is much lower than an eighth round pick in a H2H draft, so I will not be keeping him especially as he does not dominate any categories. Pedro Martinez has all the ability in the world, but demonstrated it last a few years ago; injuries and age steer me away from him. I believe that Jonathan Broxton will one day become a dominant closer. I just expect that day to be a few years away. Kaz Matusi broke out last year with over thirty stolen bases, but his excellent speed is not as valuable as Ian Kinsler’s power/speed combination. Billy Butler will be a star. That’s my take on the kid. But I feel that his power is still developing so he won’t help me much now, and he’ll eventually DH full-time, limiting his future value. For now, I will let him go. Jeremy Bonderman is still just 25 years old, but he has yet to deliver a sub-4.00 ERA season. I cannot justify keeping him again hoping that he will not destroy my ERA and WHIP. I love Jermaine Dye as a sleeper heading into this year, but I think I can get him later in most drafts (think rounds 10-12). I’ll jump all over him then, but for now, I’ll have to let him go. I’ve narrowed my last keepers down to three of Hideki Matsui, Shane Victorino, Paul Konerko, Ian Kinsler, Ryan Zimmerman, and Rafael Soriano. Let’s take a closer look at these six guys:
Rafael Soriano should be the closer for the Atlanta Braves next season. He has great strikeout potential and can help my team’s ERA and WHIP. I am worried that he was not pegged as an exclusive closer when J.J. Putz went down when he was in Seattle or when Wickman was sent off last year in Atlanta.
Hideki Matsui should settle in at about 25 HR and 100 RBI (with great runs scored as well) in that potent Yankees lineup. While he is growing older, I love the fact that his strikeouts will be fairly low compared to his productivity.
Ryan Zimmerman is going to be a fantastic third baseman. Defensively, he is amazing. Offensively, he strikes out too much and has limited power potential. The new ballpark in Washington should be a little more hitter friendly and the kid is still just 23 years old so he could be a good keeper and he might be a great keeper.
Paul Konkero has hit 41, 40, 35, and 31 HR in his last four seasons. He won’t pick up any stolen bases, but he’ll likely drive in 100 runs while striking out about 100 times (a reasonably low number for a power hitter).
I expect that Ian Kinsler will reach 20 HR many times in his career, but I certainly do not expect that he will reach 20+ SB again. Position scarcity definitely increases his value here.
Shane Victorino, “The Flyin’ Hawaiian”, just might steal 40 bases this year and could very well give you 10 HR as well. On the other hand, I certainly have bought into quite a few players who have an excellent breakout year and never replicate the feat (Oliver Perez, Carl Pavano, Jorge Cantu, etc.). I’m really nervous that Victorino is “that guy”. I do love his LF, CF, RF eligibility in my league.
Thankfully, I don’t have to make my final decision until March 1st, but if I had to choose today, I’d keep Kinsler, Zimmerman, and Matsui (I’m really torn between Konerko and Matsui. Every time I type one name, I go back and delete it and type the other name.). This is no knock on Soriano or Victorino; I just feel that the upside of Kinsler and Zimmerman certainly puts them in a higher category than the other four, and Matsui and Konerko have a long history of excellent performance that would make me much more at ease with either selection.
I promised you my take on the excellent 2nd year players (Braun, Pence, Tulowitzki, Gordon, Lincecum, Buchholz, Chamberlain, Hughes, Gallardo, Upton, C. Young, D. Young etc.) and their value as keepers. I believe that Braun, Tulowitzki, and C. Young, of these players, will contribute the most in 2008. I don’t see Braun’s ceiling as much higher than what he produced last year, but what he produced was great. I love Chris Young as a keeper not only because he approached a 30/30 season in his rookie year, but also because even if he drops off in one of those categories, he is unlikely to significantly drop off in both. This minimizes your risk. I think Tulowitzki should have been the NL ROY this past year. Getting 24 HR out of a first year shortstop is really fantastic. He is what Bobby Crosby was supposed to be. Of the “other” guys, I think you have to evaluate them on a case-by-case basis. I love Joba Chamberlain and think he’ll become a dominant starting pitcher. I also think he’ll be on a strict inning limit this year and I also believe that he may struggle in some outings as many prospects do. I think the same can be said for Hughes, Buchholz, Gallardo, and even Homer Bailey. They may be brilliant one outing, but have a disastrous start the next. Delmon Young, Justin Upton, and Hunter Pence are all likely to become stars, eventually. Certainly feel free to keep one of these guys, especially in deep leagues, but know that there are no guarantees. If the player starts horribly, he may end up back in AAA trying to work out the kinks and you’ll be wishing you still had that unsexy, reliable veteran starter.
When it comes down to it, I think you should almost always take the best player for the upcoming year unless the edge between the younger player and the older player is very slight. I would still (personally) keep Manny Ramirez over Hunter Pence, but I’d certainly keep Ryan Braun over Aramis Ramirez edit: Chris was supposed to replace Ramirez with Justin Morneau. Chris regrets the error. In the end, your keeper strategy should never prevent you from competing in the current year. There will always be the “next big prospect” on the horizon, so always aim to win first and if the time comes that you know you are not in contention, you can always work to improve your keepers for the following year. I’d like to give you a not so subtle reminder that to improve your keepers, you need not only trade established talent for prospects. Instead, look at position scarcity, consistent players having a bad year (or a bad start!), and even still-contributing veterans from teams that are also out of contention. Identify two or three potential targets and do your best to go get them without touching any of your other keepers to do so.
Finally, feel free to join more than one keeper league and certainly join more than one fantasy baseball league (but only join what you can handle!). This way, you can distribute your must have players amongst all of your leagues. Certainly it can’t hurt you to have at least one upside player on your roster every year, and the more leagues you participate in, the more guys you can snag without having it affect you in the standings.
Here are a few guys that I think have more keeper value than you expect, and a few that probably have less than you expect. Assume standard 5X5 league formats for these players.
More value than you’d expect: Paul Konerko, Lance Berkman, Jeff Kent, Carlos Guillen, Miguel Tejada, Chipper Jones, Aramis Ramirez, Torii Hunter, Gary Sheffield, Manny Ramirez, Hideki Matsui, Javier Vazquez, John Smoltz, and Brad Penny.
Less value than you’d expect: Ryan Garko, James Loney, B.J. Upton, Stephen Drew, Delmon Young, Cameron Maybin, Jeremy Bonderman, Joba Chamberlain, Tim Lincecum, Daisuke Matsusaka, and Yovani Gallardo.
Part II
March 10, 2008
Joe – We all know that choosing keepers is critical to fantasy success. The chances of a team’s success drop precipitously as keeper quality diminishes. And just like when you build a tower for a friendly game of Jenga, you want to start from a solid foundation. Choosing good keepers makes your job so much easier as a fantasy owner. There’s one thing you want to keep in mind, though. This is not about picking just the best 3 or 5 or however many players from last year’s team. You are trying to build the best team. So write that on the back of your hand, on your forehead, or wherever it will keep your attention. Take a careful look at your league and be sure to think a couple of steps ahead of your competitors.
Here’s a three-point-plan to find the best keepers:
1. Let Probability Be Your Guide
Hitting is more dependable from year to year than pitching. When you consider keepers, favor hitters over pitchers. Don’t feel that you must keep a certain number of pitchers. If you think they are worth more than your alternatives, you should pick the pitcher – but even better than average starters and closers are always replaceable in a draft. Your team will probably be better if you keep a hitter in the top ten at his position than a starter like Gil Meche or a closer like Joe Borowski. Ian Kinsler, for example, is a better keeper than either of these pitchers. Not over Erik Bedard or Scott Kazmir, of course, but over quite a few pitchers. Don’t be afraid to go into the auction pitcher-less. You will be able to put a staff together, even if your keepers are not well rounded.
Don’t prostrate yourself at the altar of upside. It’s fine to take a flyer on a young player to improve, or on a player to repeat an out-of-nowhere season (like Eric Byrnes). Just don’t fill your team with a bunch of guys that just had career years or guys like Alex Gordon who would have to significantly improve to be worth your while. Just be careful not to expect too much from your players. Sometimes a guy like Aramis Ramirez who produces year in and year out at a predictable level is ideal. Can you count on Byrnes to steal 50 bases again? It’s hard to say, so don’t keep him thinking that you are going to get the same production. Be careful expecting players to improve to fulfill their promise, or to match that once-in-a-lifetime production.
2. Know Your League
It always kills me when teams keep guys just because they are ranked highly on some fantasy expert’s list. Make sure you take your league’s specific rules into account. If your league counts OBP, and not batting average – a guy like Adam Dunn or Nick Swisher is worth a lot more – and should be more highly valued because of it. And that’s a really easy thing to do. Some other stats take a little more effort to figure out, but if you look for guys who stand out because of a non-5 x 5 category used in your league, you’ll be better prepared for the draft and better able to choose your keepers.
If you knew who was going to be available when you drafted, wouldn’t that help you prepare? If you have been playing in the same league for a few years, try to figure out the tendencies of your competitors. Does Jim always go for hot prospects? Does Bill overdraft closers? It’s worth using those clues because they can help you figure out who will be available when you draft. And, are you likely to get any players back if you let them go into the draft.
In the same vein, there are several other issues worth considering when picking keepers:
• Know the rules for position eligibility. Does 5, 10, or 20 games played at a second position give you a player to plug in at multiple points in your lineup to allow a bit more flexibility?
• Does your league make a distinction between starters and relievers? If so – that’s something subtle that can help you out. Every year, it seem like there’s a guy who closes who qualifies as a starter. There’s no one tremendous this year, but it’s worth thinking about most years.
• Don’t overvalue relievers. Usually you are better off not keeping any and picking one up later when you draft. Given the volatility of the position – you can always pick up saves during the year. This seems to be the big theme for all the fantasy experts this off-season. I’m starting to wonder if it might be worth grabbing top relievers if they start dropping. Probably not. Be careful – when in doubt take a hitter or starter over a closer.
3. Preparation is Key
You’ll have better keepers and a better draft if you prepare beforehand. If you want to do well in your league, spend a few hours reviewing whatever information you can get your hands on. Go to a stats website and figure out for yourself what kind of players are going to be available in the draft. Then compare those players to everyone you might keep. If your potential keeper isn’t any better than several players that might be available – keep someone else! This is terribly important and stands by itself. So I only have one bullet point here:
• If you are looking at starters, look at guys that increased their strikeout to walk ratio last season. They might not have had great overall results, but have a great chance of putting it all together this year. That can be the difference between grabbing Aaron Harang before he broke out a couple of years ago, and someone solid, but without a lot of upside, like Derek Lowe.
Choosing your keepers is really the first step in the fantasy baseball season. If you pick the correct players your team will be in better shape to succeed this season. Just remember that my main thesis for this article was inspired by Kurt Russell’s portrayal of Herb Brooks in Miracle. It’s all about preparation and grabbing not just the best players, but the right ones.
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