Picking Keepers

Originally posted March 7, 2008

Part I of II
Note: Joe wrote this before he had to submit his keepers.

Chris,
I always find it difficult trying to balance trying to find those amazing keepers of the future with winning in the current season. I often find myself working backward, thinking that my young team will eventually develop into something, only to find it on the precipice of being competitive as I reach the trade deadline, then having to make a decision of giving up my future in the hopes of winning now, but working from behind (as I'm on the outside looking in). In one league
in particular, I find myself making keeper decisions that, in retrospect, have me cringing. It is important to remember that when you look at your past mistakes, you are doing so not to torture
yourself, but to learn from those mistakes. I took over a very poor team in a 10 team (now a 12 team) H2H keeper league in 2004 (keepers included Trot Nixon, Woody Williams, Rafael Palmeiro, Matt Morris, Hideo Nomo, Jeff Bagwell, and Ugueth Urbina), but a strong draft (Josh
Beckett, Jose Reyes, Carl Crawford, Aramis Ramirez, and Jake Peavy) quickly put me in contention. I was very active in the trade market, and gave away Jake Peavy to Chris as a throw-in in a trade (for Aubrey Huff), but I learned a lot in my first foray into fantasy baseball with keepers. For this article, I've decided to show you what I've done in the past, and evaluate the decisions I've made each year, then I'll explain my keeper strategy from now onward. It is important to know that you can keep players in this league in perpetuity and that the number of keepers has settled at eight (it was previously ten). The league is a 7X7 league with the standard hitting categories plus strikeouts and OPS and the standard pitching categories with losses and home runs allowed. It is an intriguing format, because you must balance the hitting categories with how many times a player strikes out (obviously the fewer the better) and the pitching categories with home runs allowed and losses (again, the fewer the better). We also start a LF, CF, and RF (instead of 3 OF).

Viable Candidates for Keepers for 2005:
Rocco Baldelli
*Eric Chavez
*Carl Crawford
Rafael Furcal
Chone Figgins
*Travis Hafner
*Aubrey Huff
Jorge Posada
*Aramis Ramirez
David Wright
*Josh Beckett
*Rich Harden
*Oliver Perez
C.C. Sabathia
*Carl Pavano
*Barry Zito

In retrospect, it was unfortunate that I had not yet realized that one good year does not a good fantasy player make. Chone Figgins, Jorge Posada, C.C. Sabathia, and David Wright certainly look much better than Eric Chavez, Aubrey Huff, Oliver Perez, and Carl Pavano. Barry
Zito and Rich Harden don't look good today, but they were solid keepers in 2005. I remember agonizing over whom to keep out of Wright, Ramirez, and Chavez, and knowing that keeping three 3B was not reasonable. I knew that David Wright had a good career ahead of him, but certainly did not expect Chavez to decline like he did.

Viable Candidates for Keepers for 2006:
*Jason Bay
*Jorge Cantu
Robinson Cano
*Travis Hafner
*Hideki Matsui
Justin Morneau
*Jhonny Peralta
Ivan Rodriguez
*Scott Rolen
*Grady Sizemore
Jeremy Bonderman
Matt Cain
*Felix Hernandez
Scott Kazmir

Wow, Robinson Cano certainly looks better than Jorge Cantu. This was certainly a tough decision as well, but I actually hesitated to keep Cano because I am a Yankee fan. I believe that inherently we have a bias for players on our favorite team, and so when I evaluate two talents as equal and one is a Yankee, I generally keep the other. I still hadn't completely learned my lesson in terms of the one-year-wonders (Cantu, Peralta).

Viable Candidates for Keepers for 2007:
Curtis Granderson
*Travis Hafner
Howie Kendrick
Russell Martin
*Hideki Matsui
*Hanley Ramirez
*Scott Rolen
Rickie Weeks
*Delmon Young
*Jeremy Bonderman
*Felix Hernandez
*Scott Kazmir
Dontrelle Willis
Joel Zumaya

Not much to say here, other than the fact that I wish I'd have known that Russell Martin would steal 21 bases last year. I really never seriously considered keeping him. By this time, I was really sick and tired of keeping young pitching hoping that one might turn into an ace pitcher (Bonderman, Kazmir, Felix). This frustration reared its ugly head during the season in 2007 when I traded most of my young, developing players for more established talent and I certainly do not regret it.

Viable Keeper Candidates for 2008:
Billy Butler
Jermaine Dye
Torii Hunter
Derek Jeter
Ian Kinsler
Paul Konerko
Hideki Matsui
Kazuo Matsui
Jorge Posada
Shane Victorino
Ryan Zimmerman
Jeremy Bonderman
Jonathan Broxton
Pedro Martinez
Roy Oswalt
Rafael Soriano
Carlos Zambrano
Tim Hudson

So I guess this is a great time to discuss my keeper strategy for 2008. I’m looking at keeping players that can help me win now, but that still have the upside to help me three years from now. If deciding between two players of relatively similar value, I’ll certainly take into consideration the players’ upside (and age), but it will not be exclusive in my determination. I don’t have any stud rookies from last year (Braun, Pence, Tulowitzki, Gordon, Lincecum, Buchholz, Chamberlain, Hughes, Gallardo, Upton, C. Young, D. Young, etc.) so I’ll explain my thinking with these players following the discussion of the players I will be keeping.

My first keeper will be Derek Jeter. He’s not equivalent to a first rounder, but I must keep eight guys. In this league, Jeter will contribute in every category while maintaining a good OPS and AVG. As a shortstop, he’s a must keep. Roy Oswalt will be my second keeper. I love the consistency that he provides every year. He is certainly an elite starting pitcher in my eyes. Carlos Zambrano will be the third of my keepers for 2008. While he does not pitch consistently from one game to the next, he certainly can rack up strikeouts and wins while not completely destroying your WHIP. Jorge Posada will also be one of my keepers in 2008. His power numbers are fantastic for a catcher, and I believe that the light workload he maintained early in his career will translate into him staying effective far beyond where most catchers fall off. Torii Hunter will also be one of my keepers this year. He contributes in all categories and again, doesn’t hurt you in AVG or OPS. As a CF, he’s a very valuable asset. After these five guys, things get a little interesting, and I think that I will actually start to eliminate players (and explain why I do so) as I decide upon my last three keepers.

Tim Hudson had a wonderful 2007, but his value is much lower than an eighth round pick in a H2H draft, so I will not be keeping him especially as he does not dominate any categories. Pedro Martinez has all the ability in the world, but demonstrated it last a few years ago; injuries and age steer me away from him. I believe that Jonathan Broxton will one day become a dominant closer. I just expect that day to be a few years away. Kaz Matusi broke out last year with over thirty stolen bases, but his excellent speed is not as valuable as Ian Kinsler’s power/speed combination. Billy Butler will be a star. That’s my take on the kid. But I feel that his power is still developing so he won’t help me much now, and he’ll eventually DH full-time, limiting his future value. For now, I will let him go. Jeremy Bonderman is still just 25 years old, but he has yet to deliver a sub-4.00 ERA season. I cannot justify keeping him again hoping that he will not destroy my ERA and WHIP. I love Jermaine Dye as a sleeper heading into this year, but I think I can get him later in most drafts (think rounds 10-12). I’ll jump all over him then, but for now, I’ll have to let him go. I’ve narrowed my last keepers down to three of Hideki Matsui, Shane Victorino, Paul Konerko, Ian Kinsler, Ryan Zimmerman, and Rafael Soriano. Let’s take a closer look at these six guys:

Rafael Soriano should be the closer for the Atlanta Braves next season. He has great strikeout potential and can help my team’s ERA and WHIP. I am worried that he was not pegged as an exclusive closer when J.J. Putz went down when he was in Seattle or when Wickman was sent off last year in Atlanta.

Hideki Matsui should settle in at about 25 HR and 100 RBI (with great runs scored as well) in that potent Yankees lineup. While he is growing older, I love the fact that his strikeouts will be fairly low compared to his productivity.

Ryan Zimmerman is going to be a fantastic third baseman. Defensively, he is amazing. Offensively, he strikes out too much and has limited power potential. The new ballpark in Washington should be a little more hitter friendly and the kid is still just 23 years old so he could be a good keeper and he might be a great keeper.

Paul Konkero has hit 41, 40, 35, and 31 HR in his last four seasons. He won’t pick up any stolen bases, but he’ll likely drive in 100 runs while striking out about 100 times (a reasonably low number for a power hitter).

I expect that Ian Kinsler will reach 20 HR many times in his career, but I certainly do not expect that he will reach 20+ SB again. Position scarcity definitely increases his value here.

Shane Victorino, “The Flyin’ Hawaiian”, just might steal 40 bases this year and could very well give you 10 HR as well. On the other hand, I certainly have bought into quite a few players who have an excellent breakout year and never replicate the feat (Oliver Perez, Carl Pavano, Jorge Cantu, etc.). I’m really nervous that Victorino is “that guy”. I do love his LF, CF, RF eligibility in my league.

Thankfully, I don’t have to make my final decision until March 1st, but if I had to choose today, I’d keep Kinsler, Zimmerman, and Matsui (I’m really torn between Konerko and Matsui. Every time I type one name, I go back and delete it and type the other name.). This is no knock on Soriano or Victorino; I just feel that the upside of Kinsler and Zimmerman certainly puts them in a higher category than the other four, and Matsui and Konerko have a long history of excellent performance that would make me much more at ease with either selection.

I promised you my take on the excellent 2nd year players (Braun, Pence, Tulowitzki, Gordon, Lincecum, Buchholz, Chamberlain, Hughes, Gallardo, Upton, C. Young, D. Young etc.) and their value as keepers. I believe that Braun, Tulowitzki, and C. Young, of these players, will contribute the most in 2008. I don’t see Braun’s ceiling as much higher than what he produced last year, but what he produced was great. I love Chris Young as a keeper not only because he approached a 30/30 season in his rookie year, but also because even if he drops off in one of those categories, he is unlikely to significantly drop off in both. This minimizes your risk. I think Tulowitzki should have been the NL ROY this past year. Getting 24 HR out of a first year shortstop is really fantastic. He is what Bobby Crosby was supposed to be. Of the “other” guys, I think you have to evaluate them on a case-by-case basis. I love Joba Chamberlain and think he’ll become a dominant starting pitcher. I also think he’ll be on a strict inning limit this year and I also believe that he may struggle in some outings as many prospects do. I think the same can be said for Hughes, Buchholz, Gallardo, and even Homer Bailey. They may be brilliant one outing, but have a disastrous start the next. Delmon Young, Justin Upton, and Hunter Pence are all likely to become stars, eventually. Certainly feel free to keep one of these guys, especially in deep leagues, but know that there are no guarantees. If the player starts horribly, he may end up back in AAA trying to work out the kinks and you’ll be wishing you still had that unsexy, reliable veteran starter.

When it comes down to it, I think you should almost always take the best player for the upcoming year unless the edge between the younger player and the older player is very slight. I would still (personally) keep Manny Ramirez over Hunter Pence, but I’d certainly keep Ryan Braun over Aramis Ramirez edit: Chris was supposed to replace Ramirez with Justin Morneau. Chris regrets the error. In the end, your keeper strategy should never prevent you from competing in the current year. There will always be the “next big prospect” on the horizon, so always aim to win first and if the time comes that you know you are not in contention, you can always work to improve your keepers for the following year. I’d like to give you a not so subtle reminder that to improve your keepers, you need not only trade established talent for prospects. Instead, look at position scarcity, consistent players having a bad year (or a bad start!), and even still-contributing veterans from teams that are also out of contention. Identify two or three potential targets and do your best to go get them without touching any of your other keepers to do so.

Finally, feel free to join more than one keeper league and certainly join more than one fantasy baseball league (but only join what you can handle!). This way, you can distribute your must have players amongst all of your leagues. Certainly it can’t hurt you to have at least one upside player on your roster every year, and the more leagues you participate in, the more guys you can snag without having it affect you in the standings.

Here are a few guys that I think have more keeper value than you expect, and a few that probably have less than you expect. Assume standard 5X5 league formats for these players.

More value than you’d expect: Paul Konerko, Lance Berkman, Jeff Kent, Carlos Guillen, Miguel Tejada, Chipper Jones, Aramis Ramirez, Torii Hunter, Gary Sheffield, Manny Ramirez, Hideki Matsui, Javier Vazquez, John Smoltz, and Brad Penny.

Less value than you’d expect: Ryan Garko, James Loney, B.J. Upton, Stephen Drew, Delmon Young, Cameron Maybin, Jeremy Bonderman, Joba Chamberlain, Tim Lincecum, Daisuke Matsusaka, and Yovani Gallardo.



Part II

March 10, 2008
Joe – We all know that choosing keepers is critical to fantasy success. The chances of a team’s success drop precipitously as keeper quality diminishes. And just like when you build a tower for a friendly game of Jenga, you want to start from a solid foundation. Choosing good keepers makes your job so much easier as a fantasy owner. There’s one thing you want to keep in mind, though. This is not about picking just the best 3 or 5 or however many players from last year’s team. You are trying to build the best team. So write that on the back of your hand, on your forehead, or wherever it will keep your attention. Take a careful look at your league and be sure to think a couple of steps ahead of your competitors.

Here’s a three-point-plan to find the best keepers:

1. Let Probability Be Your Guide

Hitting is more dependable from year to year than pitching. When you consider keepers, favor hitters over pitchers. Don’t feel that you must keep a certain number of pitchers. If you think they are worth more than your alternatives, you should pick the pitcher – but even better than average starters and closers are always replaceable in a draft. Your team will probably be better if you keep a hitter in the top ten at his position than a starter like Gil Meche or a closer like Joe Borowski. Ian Kinsler, for example, is a better keeper than either of these pitchers. Not over Erik Bedard or Scott Kazmir, of course, but over quite a few pitchers. Don’t be afraid to go into the auction pitcher-less. You will be able to put a staff together, even if your keepers are not well rounded.

Don’t prostrate yourself at the altar of upside. It’s fine to take a flyer on a young player to improve, or on a player to repeat an out-of-nowhere season (like Eric Byrnes). Just don’t fill your team with a bunch of guys that just had career years or guys like Alex Gordon who would have to significantly improve to be worth your while. Just be careful not to expect too much from your players. Sometimes a guy like Aramis Ramirez who produces year in and year out at a predictable level is ideal. Can you count on Byrnes to steal 50 bases again? It’s hard to say, so don’t keep him thinking that you are going to get the same production. Be careful expecting players to improve to fulfill their promise, or to match that once-in-a-lifetime production.

2. Know Your League

It always kills me when teams keep guys just because they are ranked highly on some fantasy expert’s list. Make sure you take your league’s specific rules into account. If your league counts OBP, and not batting average – a guy like Adam Dunn or Nick Swisher is worth a lot more – and should be more highly valued because of it. And that’s a really easy thing to do. Some other stats take a little more effort to figure out, but if you look for guys who stand out because of a non-5 x 5 category used in your league, you’ll be better prepared for the draft and better able to choose your keepers.

If you knew who was going to be available when you drafted, wouldn’t that help you prepare? If you have been playing in the same league for a few years, try to figure out the tendencies of your competitors. Does Jim always go for hot prospects? Does Bill overdraft closers? It’s worth using those clues because they can help you figure out who will be available when you draft. And, are you likely to get any players back if you let them go into the draft.

In the same vein, there are several other issues worth considering when picking keepers:

• Know the rules for position eligibility. Does 5, 10, or 20 games played at a second position give you a player to plug in at multiple points in your lineup to allow a bit more flexibility?
• Does your league make a distinction between starters and relievers? If so – that’s something subtle that can help you out. Every year, it seem like there’s a guy who closes who qualifies as a starter. There’s no one tremendous this year, but it’s worth thinking about most years.
• Don’t overvalue relievers. Usually you are better off not keeping any and picking one up later when you draft. Given the volatility of the position – you can always pick up saves during the year. This seems to be the big theme for all the fantasy experts this off-season. I’m starting to wonder if it might be worth grabbing top relievers if they start dropping. Probably not. Be careful – when in doubt take a hitter or starter over a closer.


3. Preparation is Key

You’ll have better keepers and a better draft if you prepare beforehand. If you want to do well in your league, spend a few hours reviewing whatever information you can get your hands on. Go to a stats website and figure out for yourself what kind of players are going to be available in the draft. Then compare those players to everyone you might keep. If your potential keeper isn’t any better than several players that might be available – keep someone else! This is terribly important and stands by itself. So I only have one bullet point here:

• If you are looking at starters, look at guys that increased their strikeout to walk ratio last season. They might not have had great overall results, but have a great chance of putting it all together this year. That can be the difference between grabbing Aaron Harang before he broke out a couple of years ago, and someone solid, but without a lot of upside, like Derek Lowe.



Choosing your keepers is really the first step in the fantasy baseball season. If you pick the correct players your team will be in better shape to succeed this season. Just remember that my main thesis for this article was inspired by Kurt Russell’s portrayal of Herb Brooks in Miracle. It’s all about preparation and grabbing not just the best players, but the right ones.