Next Year's Hot Prospects

Originally Posted March 13

Part 1 of 2

Joe,
As you know, we’ve been prepping for the minor league draft in one of our fantasy leagues. Like any league with a deep minor league system, by the end of the draft, we’ll be on our own to figure out the best picks. Once you get past the top 100 from the publication of your choice it can be difficult to figure out how players compare to each other. The players most teams will consider are likely to be high-risk, but also high-reward. If you can find next year’s highly rated prospects, not only have you found a good player, but also a very valuable trade chip.

This week, Joe and I will face off over players likely to make big leaps and explode to top prospect status by the time 2009 lists come out. We’ll each pick 3 hitters and 3 pitchers (already signed by major league teams) that we expect to show up on top 100 lists next year, but cannot be found on the current lists from Baseball America or Baseball Prospectus. When next year’s lists comes out the other people in your league will marvel that you found these hidden gems before they had heard of them.

Hitters:
With hitters, there are a couple of factors that may cause them to be overlooked. A lack of defensive ability impacts most rankings you will see. But wait… you’re playing fantasy baseball and unless your league counts defensive stats, it doesn’t matter. It can matter if all your prospects end up as 1B/DH types, but it isn’t a big deal to have one or two. The other factors could be a lack of speed, injuries, or mediocre tools that don’t impress scouts. Yep, you’re going to have to look into some stats.

If you comb the internet or maybe leaf through a book about prospects (Basball America, Baseball Prospectus, John Sickels, etc.) you’ll be able to get an idea of why some guy who hits a ton isn’t high on the lists. They’ll point out a flaw – or the player may simply be too inexperienced to earn a high ranking. There is actually at least one more type of player who you might identify – the one with all kinds of tools who may suddenly put them all together and become a top player. Below are three players that I think have a good chance of exploding onto the scene this season.


Mat Gamel, Third Baseman, Milwaukee Brewers
This lefty-swinging infielder, born July 26, 1985, is, according to Baseball America is “a professional hitter” with developing power. In the Florida State League (high-A level) He hit .300 last year, walked 58 times in 128 games, hit 9 homers, and slugged .472. In 2006 he hit 17 home runs. His flaw? Apparently he can’t throw the ball across the infield. He made 53 errors last season, and can’t seem to get his defense together.

He is a talented hitter, with a decent eye, and a fairly modest strikeout rate. He even has a bit of speed (14 steals last year). He was the MVP of the Hawaiian Winter League this offseason, where he swatted 8 homers in 33 games. He is a tremendous hitting prospect.

According to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, the Brewers are committed to helping him improve his third-base defense at AA this season. If he can improve it, he might even challenge for the big league job in 2009. No matter what his offense should continue to improve, and the prospect community will take notice.


Nick Weglarz, Outfield, Cleveland Indians
Left-handed hitting and throwing, Weglarz won’t turn 21 until December. He played right field last season, but seems like the type that may end up at left field or first base because of his reportedly limited range and weak arm. But, boy oh boy does he have a good bat.

As a 19 year old in the South Atlantic League (low-A level), he hit 24 homers and walked 83 times in 127 games. He hit .274, but his OBP was .388. There isn’t much information out there on Weglarz, but if he hits 20+ home runs this year in high-A ball, you can expect him to rocket up the rankings. The Indians will make room for his bat when he’s ready. These are the numbers that make fantasy owners think of Nick Swisher and Adam Dunn. He’s an especially good player for OBP leagues.


Dominic Brown, Outfield, Philadelphia Phillies
Brown was a 20th round pick in 2007, but dropped that far only because teams thought he was going to Miami to play wide receiver. He’s athletic, hits and throws left-handed, stands 6 ft 5, and won’t turn 21 until September. He’s a five-tool player, with all the potential in the world. But he’s very raw at this point. So far his production has been so-so – He hit .295 in the short season A New York Penn League last season, with an impressive 4-9 stint in the Florida State League (High A level), but only hit 4 home runs in about 300 at bats. He walked a few times and didn’t strike out at a super high level.

Baseball America calls him the Phillies’ “right fielder of the future,” but say he might take more than two years to get there. He’s one of those guys that might put everything together and become a household name very soon. He might also never make it past AA. He’s a long shot, but a long shot that some people compare to Darryl Strawberry.

And he runs a 60-yard dash in 6.6 seconds.

And should develop big power. See, he’s awfully tempting.


Pitchers:
Pitchers are notoriously difficult to project. One injury can ruin their careers, and, like hitters, they also face tougher competition with each promotion. In trying to project pitchers likely to become top prospects be sure to look at scouting reports first. It is rare for a top prospect to have mediocre stuff, though some manage to get by with control and guile. After confirming that someone has good stuff, you want to focus on guys with high strikeout rates and strikeout to walk ratios. That’s about all you can go on. But for the players below that may be enough to project that they’ll become top prospects by 2009.


Julio Teheran, Right Handed Starter, Atlanta Braves
You might not have heard of this pitcher yet. That’s okay, he turned 17 about 6 weeks ago. Baseball America said he has the best fastball in the Atlanta system. And really, that’s enough for me. If he plays in one of the rookie leagues this summer, then he’ll have measurable stats. If he shines, like someone with the stuff he’s supposed to have should, then he will be on the lists next year. He’ll be a year younger than most high school pitchers taken in the 2008 draft. I mean, he’s 17, throws 95, and his changeup and curve are said to be solid. He could explode onto the scene this year.

Danny Duffy, Left Handed Starter, Kansas City Royals
Duffy was a third round pick last summer. He will turn 20 in December, and can hit 95 with his fastball. Baseball America expects him to add, get this, more velocity. Apparently he is quite raw presently, but he struck out 63 guys in 37 innings last year, a stunning 15.2 Ks per 9. If he gets anywhere near repeating those numbers, people will soon be talking about him all the time.

Chris Withrow, Right Handed Starter, Los Angeles Dodgers
I was thinking about picking another lefthander who pitches for the Braves named Cole Rohrbrough, but I figure Withrow is destined to have a really excellent minor league career, like a bunch of other recent Dodger pitching prospects. I can’t say that’s an ironclad, evidence-based conclusion, but it has a certain pattern behind it. The Dodgers have produced a ton of big pitching prospects recently (a bunch of them have fallen injured, but they do impress). After being picked in the first round last year, he pitched a handful of innings in the Gulf Coast League, but not enough to make any real conclusions. Other than his fastball (likely to pick up more velocity), and his curve and change (which project to be good), he’s a bit raw. But after a good season in low-A he’ll be highly rated.


Most times when you draft prospects, you are prognosticating. It’s tough to predict major league production based on AA or AAA stats, let alone for players who may not have played a full season of pro ball. But, considering the type of prospects who are likely to succeed and also to impress scouts, you can make an educated guess to get the most out of your late draft pick.

This is our 4th season, and given the fact that 54 players go every year, we have to do our own research near the end. Sometimes it’s a good idea to skip over the uncertainty of inexperienced players and pick one of the low ceiling guys who are leftover (or one you think is low ceiling – no one took Dan Uggla a couple of years ago). It’s really a roll of the dice, but if your pick comes through the benefits will make up for a couple of failed longshots.




Faceoff
Posted March 24 by Joseph

Part 2 of 2



Chris,
I love your picks, especially Weglarz and Gamel. Sounds like you did your homework, and I’d like to remind our readers that this is what it takes to draft that someone special. Here are my selections for guys that didn’t finish in the BP or BA Top 100 lists that I see vaulting up in the near future. Before I give my picks, I want to remind you that even though I’m predicting a Top 100 in these prospects’ futures, I do not necessarily expect them to sustain success commensurate with other successful Top 100 graduates. I’m not trying to qualify my picks here; I’m just trying to remind you that I’m selecting guys that I think will end up on a Top 100 list, but not necessarily play in an all-star game.

Hitters:

Christian Santana, C, Rangers System- Baseball America quotes a Rangers official as saying that Santana is “Raul Mondesi, if you put him behind the plate.” Hmm…makes me think that I’d like one or two of those on my team. Yes, Texas is loaded with catching prospects, but don’t let that bother you too much in this case. Would you really be disappointed with “Raul Mondesi, if you put him at center field?” I didn’t think so. It’s worth noting that at least a handful of teams pursued Santana with that intention (playing CF). If Santana does stick at catcher and develops power as expected, this guy could be something special. Look, positions of scarcity (catcher, second base, shortstop, and even center and right field) are hard to fill, if you can do it with someone out of your farm system, you’re ahead of the game. Santana is 19 years old as of opening day this year. Santana was 20th on Baseball America’s list of Rangers prospects. He did not make Baseball Prospectus’ list of the Top 11 Rangers prospects.

Max Ramirez, C?, Rangers System- Another Rangers catcher? Well, maybe. Max Ramirez can hit. John Sickels believes it. Baseball America believes it. So why shouldn’t you? Well, maybe (probably) he doesn’t stay at catcher and becomes an outfielder or a third baseman. Wouldn’t you take that over a guy who, if he fails at his current position, has nowhere to go? It’s also worth mentioning that if Ramirez does reach the majors with Texas, he’ll be playing in a good hitter’s ballpark (as does Santana). But this is about shooting up the prospect rankings, and my guess is that Ramirez stays at catcher for another year and continues to rake (his minor league OPS is .895, but has been higher in A-ball than it was in rookie ball). He’s not the youngest prospect (23 years old), but he certainly could explode onto the scene in AA this year. Ramirez was 23rd on Baseball America’s list of Rangers prospects. He was 10th on Baseball Prospectus’ list of the Top 11 Rangers prospects.

Jesus Montero, C, Yankees System- A catcher with plus-plus power is hard to find. Like Ramirez and Santana, Montero may eventually find his home at a position other than catcher. But the Yankees seem committed to leaving Montero at catcher for the time being, and this means that he’ll be evaluated with that potential in mind. He is just 18 years old, and even if he doesn’t reach the lofty comparisons to Travis Hafner as a hitter, he should shoot onto those Top 100 lists as he starts to move through the Yankee system (he spent 2007 in the Gulf Coast League). Montero was ranked 6th on Baseball America’s list of Yankees prospects. He was 7th on Baseball Prospectus’ list of the Top 11 Yankees prospects.

Others to watch: Oscar Tejada (BOS), Carlos Peguero (SEA), Ben Revere (MIN), Will Venable (SD)

Pitchers:

James McDonald, RHP, Dodgers System- The pitcher-turned-outfielder-turned-pitcher exploded onto the prospect scene after striking out 168 in 134 IP in High-A and Double-A ball in 2007. He posted a respectable 3.95 ERA in 82 innings of High-A ball, but really established himself with a 1.71 ERA (and 64 of those Ks) in 52 IP in Double-A. Maybe his stuff won’t allow him to become a front-of-the-rotation starter, but he strikes guys out and has been successful when he’s been healthy enough to pitch (the Dodgers moved him into the outfield following arm troubles in 2003). He’s only 23 years old, despite his circuitous path to prospect status, so another good year could land him high on the Top 100 lists next year. McDonald was ranked 7th on Baseball America’s list of Dodgers prospects. He was 5th on Baseball Prospectus’ list of the Top 11 Dodgers prospects.

Robert Hernandez, RHP, Cubs System- Sometimes you like a guy because of a description of his “stuff”. Sometimes you like him because he has a “bulldog mentality”. Sometimes you like him because Carlos Zambrano has decided to tutor him on the finer points of pitching and is already boasting about the 19 year old righty. Hernandez pitched well in Low-A ball last year, striking out 71 and walking just 28 as the youngest pitcher in the Midwest league. If he adds velocity as his body fills out, or if he finds a third pitch, he should find himself on those Top 100 lists next year. Hernandez was ranked 17th on Baseball America’s list of Cubs prospects. He did not make Baseball Prospectus’ list of the Top 11 Cubs prospects.

Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Giants System-When you’re drafted 10th overall, it’s hard to slip under the radar, but it seems that Bumgarner did just that. Whether it is his low three-quarters arm slot or his lack of established secondary pitches, Bumgarner missed both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus’ Top 100 lists. Bumgarner throws pure gas (his fastball sits in the low- to mid- nineties and has touched 96 or 97), and should dominate as a 6’4” lefthander when his secondary pitches come along. A personal favorite, Bumgarner was ranked 3rd on Baseball America’s list of Giants prospects. He was 4th on Baseball Prospectus’ list of the Top 11 Giants prospects.

Others to watch: Jake Arrieta (BAL), Mark Melancon (NYY), Henry Rodriguez (Oak), Jose Ceda (ChC)

Remember, you shouldn't take one of these guys ahead of already established guys on the upper part of a Top 100 list, but when your taking a flyer, you can't go wrong with one of the guys above.