The May Mirage

Originally Posted May 14

Part One of Two

Hey there, reader(s?). Sorry for the unplanned hiatus. I’m happy to tell you we’re back with a new column. If you like what we do email comments or questions to baseballfaceoff@gmail.com, or follow the links to our forum and start a discussion.

In one of our recent columns, Joe and I wrote about the tantalizing temptations of April, those hitters who have started off, as Jason McElwain might say, hotter than a pistol. Well, this is the time to think about whether some of the early season superstars have the power to sustain their success. Sure, hitters like Albert Pujols are off to hot starts (elbow injury be damned) – but it would be boring to write about what stars we expect to continue hitting well. What about the upstarts? Who can be expected to maintain their success? Who’s bound to drop off? That’s what this faceoff is about. I’m going to start this one, and Joe will respond in a couple of days.

I’m going to discuss these three players:
Name Runs Home Runs RBI Steals AVG OPS
Nate McLouth 31 9 29 3 .307 .990
Ryan Church 28 7 26 1 .319 .917
Ryan Doumit 21 5 15 0 .350 .955

Let’s start this discussion with Nate McLouth, the number 7 overall fantasy performer according to Yahoo!: He’s a legitimate threat in all fantasy categories. And he hasn’t been lucky – his batting average on balls in play (batting average when he doesn’t hit a homer or strike out) is .306, which is a pretty reasonable value, really. And he has been in a bit of a slump. He has just one hit in his last fifteen at-bats.

McLouth was one of those hitters that didn’t make a ton of noise during the season in 2007, but really jumped out as a sleeper for 2008 during draft preparations. He hit 13 homers? Well, for a part time outfielder, I guess that’s okay. He stole 22 bases? In only 329 at bats? Now we’re talking.

In spring training the question was whether or not he would get playing time. He’s making the most of his chance, and I see him being a strong contributor throughout the year. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him drop off a bit on homers and batting average, but he could definitely pick it up with a few more stolen bases. I expect him to settle in as a good #2 outfielder for any fantasy team.

Moving on, we have another player who has also had difficulty getting playing time in the past, Ryan Church. He’s been on a star’s pace – just multiply his numbers by about 4 and you’ll see that he’s on track for more than 100 runs and rbi. His line drive percentage is astronomical at 29%. Most players don’t go much over 20%. And his batting average on balls in play is about .380, which is pretty high, probably due to that amazing line drive percentage.

Church is a player I like, but I don’t see him keeping this up all year. Last year he hit .272, and had an OPS of .813. I can definitely see him splitting the difference and settling in at about .850, which would make him a solid outfielder. I expect a bit of a regression – that he won’t meet the 100/30/100 pace. He should be a solid contributor the rest of the way, but not a star.

Then there’s Ryan Doumit. Holy cow, he’s hitting .350. The Pirates’ catcher is better than halfway to career highs in almost every major category after an amazing start. If he could keep up this pace he’d be a fantasy savior at catcher. Well – it’s not going to happen. Not only did he break his thumb in a game against the Cardinals the other day, he’s been quite lucky. His line drive percentage is about 19 percent, and his batting average on balls in play is at .369. On average, the relationship is line drive percentage + .120 = BABIP.

When Doumit comes back from his injury – don’t expect him to pick up where he left off. He might perform at a fairly high level for a catcher – but he’s not going to continue playing like a star. He should regress even more than Church does.

There is a trick to identifying true breakouts as they happen. For every Chris Shelton who blows up at the beginning of a season, there’s a budding star that actually did jump to the next level. I think McLouth is one of the guys who is emerging as a fantasy force, while Church and Doumit are due to drop off a little, and a lot, respectively.

Joe, it’s your turn, why don’t you tell me who else is a May mirage?






June 5
Part Two of Two
Posted by Joe:

Hey, sorry about this - but some things came up, and Joe is not going to be able to post an analysis of a third player for this column.

It is always difficult to decide whether to buy into a player’s fast start in fantasy baseball. It’s always difficult to tell if the start is “real” or if the player will return to his previous level of performance in the near future. When looking at players who have started quickly, I often go back to their scouting reports from when they were prospects (Baseball America has archived reports for subscribers) as a deciding factor. Here are three players off to fast starts that I believe in, and three that I refuse to “drink the Kool-Aid”.

I believe that…

Melky Cabrera can continue to produce at a level that could have him finishing the season with 15 SB and 15 HR. Whether he reaches those particular benchmarks is perhaps irrelevant, because few expected even 10 HR out of him at the start of the season. I didn’t expect that his slugging percentage would stay over the .500 threshold, but again, what were you expecting from him at the start of this season?
Why do I believe in Melky Cabrera? It’s a gut feeling, perhaps, but in early 2005, Baseball America quoted Yankees officials as saying that Melky reminded them of Jose Vidro (the version of Vidro that played on the Expos, one would assume). So far, Cabrera has not shown the power that Vidro showed at his prime, but Cabrera is just 23 years old (in fact, he’s 11 months younger than a certain highly-touted CF that has been seeing playing time in Boston). I don’t know if this should count for anything, but more than any player in recent memory, I have hoped that Melky Cabrera would succeed. Every time I turn on the television, it seems that Cabrera is flying all over the field and around the bases, playing the game with a reckless abandon and youthfulness that is inspiring. I would not be surprised if Yankee fans eventually embrace him in the same way they did Bernie Williams and Jorge Posada, wanting the organization to keep him in house at all costs. Now none of this should really influence his fantasy value (unless you play in a league that distinguishes between LF, CF, and RF) other than the fact that if he continues to prove himself invaluable to the Yankees, he will have more opportunities than players of equivalent peripheral numbers to score/drive-in more runs because of the relatively potent (if not underperforming) Yankee lineup surrounding him. While Cabrera is in a mini-slump, I still expect him to contribute to your fantasy team:

Preseason Expectations: .280/.350/.400, 8 HR, 70 R, 70 RBI, 10 SB
Season Pace: .261/.322/.433, 25 HR, 66 R, 74 RBI, 12 SB
Adjusted Expectations: .280/.350/.440, 15 HR, 75 R, 80 RBI, 15 SB

My recommendation on Cabrera is to expect more of the same, and to keep him on your fantasy team as he probably has a greater value to your team than he would have trade value.

I believe that…
Edinson Volquez is for real. Again, I go back to scout’s views of Volquez to justify this claim. In 2006, Baseball America gave Edinson rave reviews, publicly noting that Volquez is frequently compared to Pedro Martinez both on and off the mound. His stuff has always been fantastic, as he features a fastball with sink that sits in the mid-nineties and a changeup that BA says rates a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale. His makeup has never been in question, so most of the concerns surrounding him were those that naturally correspond to a career ERA of 7.20 entering this year as well as the lack of a true solid third pitch.
I generally state that a player’s past performance should dictate his future performance, so again, why do I believe that Volquez is going to be different? First, he is young, and it is difficult to apply this general rule to either young players or players recovering from injury. Second, sample size can be very deceiving. Volquez had 17 starts prior to this year and these were spread out amongst three years. Is it reasonable to make a career assumption based upon scattered starts spread over three years? I don’t think so.
The numbers seem to support Volquez being able to maintain his fast start. His K/9 ratio is 10.61, his BABIP allowed is a reasonable 0.279, and his groundball to flyball ratio is a very good 1.88. So what do I believe this means?

Preseason Expectations: 150 IP, 9 wins, 130 K, 4.50 ERA, 1.44 WHIP
Current Pace: 185 IP, 23 wins, 220 K, 1.12 ERA, 1.26 WHIP
Adjusted Expectations: 185 IP, 18 wins, 210 K, 2.30 ERA, 1.30 WHIP

My recommendation for Volquez is to keep him and ride his unexpected surge to the top of your league. He shouldn’t be going anywhere for a long time, and could be a 200 strikeout contributor this year and for many years to come.