A well reasoned choice, Joe. Thus far, no surprises. I think this pick is where it gets interesting because you are forced to make a compromise or guess who will increase their production. If Chase Utley were completely healthy I think his all-around game and position would make him a good pick here. Reyes can really run, but he doesn’t hit for much power, or drive in runs. Some might consider taking Johan Santana or C.C. Sabathia here, but philosophically, that’s something I wouldn’t do. Pitchers kind of scare me. You’re just as well taking Kevin Slowey a dozen rounds later.
First basemen don’t scare me, but there sure are a lot of great and good ones – Lance Berkman, Miguel Cabrera, Mark Teixeira, Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, Derrek Lee, Kevin Youkilis, Carlos Pena, Justin Morneau, etc. etc. The size of your league looms large going forward in the first round. If this is a big league (over 15 teams) I think you might pick between the two first basemen I like best at this point: Cabrera and Teixeira. I expect big production out of both this year. Last year, Cabrera had the quietest 127 rbi season since Vern Stephens. And Teixeira is coming to a truly stacked lineup with no pressure to produce. Well, it is a good lineup. Both could easily go 120/40/130/.300, which is a hell of a year. But the low range of what they might do is very similar to at least 8 other first basemen. So, why take one now?
You might look at all-around outfielders next: Ryan Braun, Matt Holliday, Grady Sizemore, and Carlos Beltran are all plausible at this point. With the move to dead ball paradise Oakland, I’d stay away from Holliday. Don’t be blinded by the 28 steals last year because it’s not going to happen again. Braun is a good bet to repeat last year’s 92/27/106/.285/14. The batting average is a bit lower than the ideal for this draft position. Sizemore and Beltran are solid across the board, and especially valuable in a league that separates out each OF position.
But there’s one thing I forgot – Miguel Cabrera started 14 games at 3B last year. I’m imagining that this league Joe and I are drafting for goes with a 10 games played in the previous year means the player qualifies at the position. I think that’s a clincher here. And people always think third base is better stocked than it is in reality. I expect a 110/35/125/.310 season, which is well worth the number 5 pick.
Sunday, February 8, 2009
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
The Foundations Part IV
Chris, it's simple for me here. You take David Wright or Jose Reyes with the next pick. As much as I'd like to take Reyes, but his limited HR potential limits his overall value for me here. His SB total, however, is only bounded, seemingly, by how many singles he can't stretch into doubles. The overall difference between these two guys in value really exists in RBI. David Wright will continue to compile the RBI than Reyes so sorely lacks in regularity. Even a 78 stolen base season won't make up for 15 HR and 65 RBI out of your first round pick when you could have had 35 HR and 115 RBI and 20+ SB. Position scarcity be damned. I'd take David Wright. You're on the clock, Chris, though you should note that if you don't take Reyes next, he's mine!!!
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
The Foundations Part III
Joe – we both know that you have to work pretty hard to go wrong with a top three pick this year, so there’s nothing wrong with taking ARod. When you’re talking about my next pick, you are talking about a player on the rise. A player who has improved each year, and one who could fall anywhere in the top 3. It’s Hanley Ramirez. You described his strengths pretty well, and his lone weakness, his RBI total. He had just 67 last year – which top players will often double.
I wouldn’t let that sour you on him, however. He typically hits leadoff, which limits the number of players on base for him to drive in. You could reasonably assume that he won’t hit leadoff forever. He’s only 25 – growing stronger, and dropping his ratio of at bats to homers each year. At some point these factors will combine to force the Marlins to move him to 3rd or maybe 4th in the order. When that happens, his RBI total will explode.
In a weird way this means that where you rate Hanley Ramirez depends on what you think of a lanky center field prospect named Cameron Maybin. If you think the raw, speedy former Tigers farmhand is likely to force himself into the lineup this season and become the leadoff hitter, you could argue that Ramirez should be the first overall pick. In a keeper league that’s starting from scratch, he’s even that much more valuable.
Ramirez’s potential to become an even better fantasy performer is what raises him past the other contenders at number three. I think it’s a really easy decision to make. If you still aren’t convinced, look at his walk total from last year. He drew 92 last year, which is a great sign that he’s on his way to becoming a middle of the order masher.
Back to you, Joe.
I wouldn’t let that sour you on him, however. He typically hits leadoff, which limits the number of players on base for him to drive in. You could reasonably assume that he won’t hit leadoff forever. He’s only 25 – growing stronger, and dropping his ratio of at bats to homers each year. At some point these factors will combine to force the Marlins to move him to 3rd or maybe 4th in the order. When that happens, his RBI total will explode.
In a weird way this means that where you rate Hanley Ramirez depends on what you think of a lanky center field prospect named Cameron Maybin. If you think the raw, speedy former Tigers farmhand is likely to force himself into the lineup this season and become the leadoff hitter, you could argue that Ramirez should be the first overall pick. In a keeper league that’s starting from scratch, he’s even that much more valuable.
Ramirez’s potential to become an even better fantasy performer is what raises him past the other contenders at number three. I think it’s a really easy decision to make. If you still aren’t convinced, look at his walk total from last year. He drew 92 last year, which is a great sign that he’s on his way to becoming a middle of the order masher.
Back to you, Joe.
The Foundations pt. 2
Nice Chris. I think that I would have taken Pujols first as well. Once Pujols is off the board, I think you have to look closely at selecting either Hanley Ramirez or Alex Rodriguez. Hanley has more inherent value because of his position and because he can possibly give you 50+ stolen bases and 25+ homeruns (remember that elite stolen base artists are harder to find than elite homerun hitters). Rodriguez plays for a better team, and has a higher power ceiling. He'll get about 20 SB and his RBI numbers will dwarf those of Hanley. In fact, Rodriguez's lowest RBI output in the last 10 years is 103. Ramirez's career high is 81. Both will get 100 plus runs, but Hanley consistantly scores 125 runs, while Rodriguez's run total seems to fluxuate from 100 up to 140. Alex Rodriguez gets a lot of criticism for (basically) not playing the game the "right way". I think that this is unfair to Rodriguez. He has so much raw ability that sometimes people mistake fluidity for lack of effort. He runs the bases very naturally and his swing is smooth when he's in a groove (which happens often). He just happens to play next to a player who gives maximum effort on every play, and often accomplishes things that few others ever could (going into the stands face-first against the Red Sox to make a catch and at the same time basically ending Nomar's stay in Boston, the flip, stealing two bases against the shift, etc.). And while Jeter is a great baseball player in his own right, his heroics are not without failures as well. Why does Jeter enter into the conversation about Rodriguez? Look at their history. Alex Rodriguez wants to be beloved as Jeter is, and this obsession makes him more mechanical in how he plays the game. The knock on Rodriguez is that he accumulates stats in order to get paid and doesn't care about winning or losing, and I think this is unfair. I don't believe anyone is worth $32 million a year, but if anyone is, it is Rodriguez. That being said, Alex tends to tighten up anytime he approaches a milestone (he could reach 600 HR with 47 this season), so watch out once he reaches 598 or so! The accumulation of stats is natural, and plays well in fantasy circles, so I'd love to have A-Rod on my team. Honestly, you can't go wrong with either Hanley Ramirez or Alex Rodriguez, but thinking of another player, David Wright, has helped me make my ultimate decision. Ask yourself this question: can you justify taking David Wright over Hanley Ramirez? I think you can. Wright has a slightly higher power potential, and steals anywhere from 15-35 bases a year. He fills up every category, including runs and RBI, and has averaged nearly 30 HR over the past three years. He doesn't have the highest ceiling for stolen bases, but he has already put up a 30/30 season. Would I take David Wright over Hanley Ramirez? No, probably not, but I could justify it. Now, could you take David Wright over Alex Rodriguez? I don't think you can. Each player puts up similar numbers in batting average, runs, and RBI. David Wright's stolen base ceiling is slightly higher than Rodriguez's, but A-Rod has the potential to hit 55+ HR in any given year. I see Wright's ceiling as 40 or so. I honestly believe A-Rod has a higher probability of hitting 50 HR this year than I see Wright getting 40 (or 30 SB, frankly). Therefore, A-Rod becomes my choice here, though I don't think you would be hurting yourself by taking Hanley Ramirez. Any other choice, in my opinion, is a stretch. Chris, it's back to you!
Monday, February 2, 2009
The Foundations
This faceoff is about the basics: who are the players you want to pick to build your team around? Joe and I will trade off – sort of a top ten mock draft of players that are capable of anchoring your team.
This list is based on a standard 5X5 league, but make sure to consider your league’s uncommon categories and how they might bump someone up or down. The classics would be to consider walks for hitters if your league counts on base percentage instead of batting average, and total bases or slugging percentage, among many other possibilities.
In a draft or auction – the player who should be the highest value would ideally combine performance in all categories. He’d hit for average, power, score runs, drive them in, and steal bases as well. I think its always a good idea to go for hitting over pitching first (because of the volatility of pitching). Consistency and speed are usually going to be what separates the top five type players from the next 10 or 15.
Position is also a factor. You’re going to have a great chance of getting good production from first base, even if you grab that player for $10 or in the 8th round. For SS, 2B, C, and CF, it’s going to be tougher to find the top-notch production the pick or dollar amount demands. However, it makes top producers at those positions even more valuable.
For 2009, I think the first player picked and highest priced player should be Albert Pujols. I know this contradicts basically what I’ve written in the last two paragraphs. But he’s going to be very reliable. You know you are getting 100+ runs, 100+ rbi, 35+ hr, .330+ batting average. And, a nontrivial half dozen stolen bases. This is essentially a question of reliability. Albert’s lowest BA ever - .314. Fewest runs in a season – 99. 319 HR in 8 seasons – that’s 39.875 per year. Despite all your other options, this is the guy. He’s worthy of the first pick, of more than $40 in an auction. Alex Rodriguez might have a higher top end, Hanley Ramirez has the best power/speed combo, Manny Ramirez is that wild card, but none of them can give you the same high achievement in as many categories. The totality of what Albert Pujols can give your team is a guaranteed top performer in the most competitive categories. Your stolen bases can wait, thank your luck, grab him, and be start thinking about putting together the rest of your squad.
This list is based on a standard 5X5 league, but make sure to consider your league’s uncommon categories and how they might bump someone up or down. The classics would be to consider walks for hitters if your league counts on base percentage instead of batting average, and total bases or slugging percentage, among many other possibilities.
In a draft or auction – the player who should be the highest value would ideally combine performance in all categories. He’d hit for average, power, score runs, drive them in, and steal bases as well. I think its always a good idea to go for hitting over pitching first (because of the volatility of pitching). Consistency and speed are usually going to be what separates the top five type players from the next 10 or 15.
Position is also a factor. You’re going to have a great chance of getting good production from first base, even if you grab that player for $10 or in the 8th round. For SS, 2B, C, and CF, it’s going to be tougher to find the top-notch production the pick or dollar amount demands. However, it makes top producers at those positions even more valuable.
For 2009, I think the first player picked and highest priced player should be Albert Pujols. I know this contradicts basically what I’ve written in the last two paragraphs. But he’s going to be very reliable. You know you are getting 100+ runs, 100+ rbi, 35+ hr, .330+ batting average. And, a nontrivial half dozen stolen bases. This is essentially a question of reliability. Albert’s lowest BA ever - .314. Fewest runs in a season – 99. 319 HR in 8 seasons – that’s 39.875 per year. Despite all your other options, this is the guy. He’s worthy of the first pick, of more than $40 in an auction. Alex Rodriguez might have a higher top end, Hanley Ramirez has the best power/speed combo, Manny Ramirez is that wild card, but none of them can give you the same high achievement in as many categories. The totality of what Albert Pujols can give your team is a guaranteed top performer in the most competitive categories. Your stolen bases can wait, thank your luck, grab him, and be start thinking about putting together the rest of your squad.
Relaunch and not-quite-jerry maguire mission statement
Welcome to the relaunch of baseballfaceoff.com. Joe and I are trying out a new format - snappier, more immediate, and a bit more fun.
We remain steadfast in our effort to bring to our readers useful and interesting fantasy baseball analysis. The idea is that people can review our advice, evaluate it on their terms, and then form their own conclusions. There are countless players who take rankings sheets as gospel and the word of fantasy experts as if written on stone tablets by ancient philosophers. That’s silly. Think for yourself. If you think we’re wrong, please write us at baseballfaceoff@gmail.com. We’d also like to answer your questions on our blog – so fire away.
We remain steadfast in our effort to bring to our readers useful and interesting fantasy baseball analysis. The idea is that people can review our advice, evaluate it on their terms, and then form their own conclusions. There are countless players who take rankings sheets as gospel and the word of fantasy experts as if written on stone tablets by ancient philosophers. That’s silly. Think for yourself. If you think we’re wrong, please write us at baseballfaceoff@gmail.com. We’d also like to answer your questions on our blog – so fire away.
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