The Foundations Part III

Joe – we both know that you have to work pretty hard to go wrong with a top three pick this year, so there’s nothing wrong with taking ARod. When you’re talking about my next pick, you are talking about a player on the rise. A player who has improved each year, and one who could fall anywhere in the top 3. It’s Hanley Ramirez. You described his strengths pretty well, and his lone weakness, his RBI total. He had just 67 last year – which top players will often double.

I wouldn’t let that sour you on him, however. He typically hits leadoff, which limits the number of players on base for him to drive in. You could reasonably assume that he won’t hit leadoff forever. He’s only 25 – growing stronger, and dropping his ratio of at bats to homers each year. At some point these factors will combine to force the Marlins to move him to 3rd or maybe 4th in the order. When that happens, his RBI total will explode.

In a weird way this means that where you rate Hanley Ramirez depends on what you think of a lanky center field prospect named Cameron Maybin. If you think the raw, speedy former Tigers farmhand is likely to force himself into the lineup this season and become the leadoff hitter, you could argue that Ramirez should be the first overall pick. In a keeper league that’s starting from scratch, he’s even that much more valuable.

Ramirez’s potential to become an even better fantasy performer is what raises him past the other contenders at number three. I think it’s a really easy decision to make. If you still aren’t convinced, look at his walk total from last year. He drew 92 last year, which is a great sign that he’s on his way to becoming a middle of the order masher.

Back to you, Joe.