The Foundations Part E

A well reasoned choice, Joe. Thus far, no surprises. I think this pick is where it gets interesting because you are forced to make a compromise or guess who will increase their production. If Chase Utley were completely healthy I think his all-around game and position would make him a good pick here. Reyes can really run, but he doesn’t hit for much power, or drive in runs. Some might consider taking Johan Santana or C.C. Sabathia here, but philosophically, that’s something I wouldn’t do. Pitchers kind of scare me. You’re just as well taking Kevin Slowey a dozen rounds later.

First basemen don’t scare me, but there sure are a lot of great and good ones – Lance Berkman, Miguel Cabrera, Mark Teixeira, Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, Derrek Lee, Kevin Youkilis, Carlos Pena, Justin Morneau, etc. etc. The size of your league looms large going forward in the first round. If this is a big league (over 15 teams) I think you might pick between the two first basemen I like best at this point: Cabrera and Teixeira. I expect big production out of both this year. Last year, Cabrera had the quietest 127 rbi season since Vern Stephens. And Teixeira is coming to a truly stacked lineup with no pressure to produce. Well, it is a good lineup. Both could easily go 120/40/130/.300, which is a hell of a year. But the low range of what they might do is very similar to at least 8 other first basemen. So, why take one now?

You might look at all-around outfielders next: Ryan Braun, Matt Holliday, Grady Sizemore, and Carlos Beltran are all plausible at this point. With the move to dead ball paradise Oakland, I’d stay away from Holliday. Don’t be blinded by the 28 steals last year because it’s not going to happen again. Braun is a good bet to repeat last year’s 92/27/106/.285/14. The batting average is a bit lower than the ideal for this draft position. Sizemore and Beltran are solid across the board, and especially valuable in a league that separates out each OF position.

But there’s one thing I forgot – Miguel Cabrera started 14 games at 3B last year. I’m imagining that this league Joe and I are drafting for goes with a 10 games played in the previous year means the player qualifies at the position. I think that’s a clincher here. And people always think third base is better stocked than it is in reality. I expect a 110/35/125/.310 season, which is well worth the number 5 pick.