Tuesday, February 3, 2009
The Foundations pt. 2
Nice Chris. I think that I would have taken Pujols first as well. Once Pujols is off the board, I think you have to look closely at selecting either Hanley Ramirez or Alex Rodriguez. Hanley has more inherent value because of his position and because he can possibly give you 50+ stolen bases and 25+ homeruns (remember that elite stolen base artists are harder to find than elite homerun hitters). Rodriguez plays for a better team, and has a higher power ceiling. He'll get about 20 SB and his RBI numbers will dwarf those of Hanley. In fact, Rodriguez's lowest RBI output in the last 10 years is 103. Ramirez's career high is 81. Both will get 100 plus runs, but Hanley consistantly scores 125 runs, while Rodriguez's run total seems to fluxuate from 100 up to 140. Alex Rodriguez gets a lot of criticism for (basically) not playing the game the "right way". I think that this is unfair to Rodriguez. He has so much raw ability that sometimes people mistake fluidity for lack of effort. He runs the bases very naturally and his swing is smooth when he's in a groove (which happens often). He just happens to play next to a player who gives maximum effort on every play, and often accomplishes things that few others ever could (going into the stands face-first against the Red Sox to make a catch and at the same time basically ending Nomar's stay in Boston, the flip, stealing two bases against the shift, etc.). And while Jeter is a great baseball player in his own right, his heroics are not without failures as well. Why does Jeter enter into the conversation about Rodriguez? Look at their history. Alex Rodriguez wants to be beloved as Jeter is, and this obsession makes him more mechanical in how he plays the game. The knock on Rodriguez is that he accumulates stats in order to get paid and doesn't care about winning or losing, and I think this is unfair. I don't believe anyone is worth $32 million a year, but if anyone is, it is Rodriguez. That being said, Alex tends to tighten up anytime he approaches a milestone (he could reach 600 HR with 47 this season), so watch out once he reaches 598 or so! The accumulation of stats is natural, and plays well in fantasy circles, so I'd love to have A-Rod on my team. Honestly, you can't go wrong with either Hanley Ramirez or Alex Rodriguez, but thinking of another player, David Wright, has helped me make my ultimate decision. Ask yourself this question: can you justify taking David Wright over Hanley Ramirez? I think you can. Wright has a slightly higher power potential, and steals anywhere from 15-35 bases a year. He fills up every category, including runs and RBI, and has averaged nearly 30 HR over the past three years. He doesn't have the highest ceiling for stolen bases, but he has already put up a 30/30 season. Would I take David Wright over Hanley Ramirez? No, probably not, but I could justify it. Now, could you take David Wright over Alex Rodriguez? I don't think you can. Each player puts up similar numbers in batting average, runs, and RBI. David Wright's stolen base ceiling is slightly higher than Rodriguez's, but A-Rod has the potential to hit 55+ HR in any given year. I see Wright's ceiling as 40 or so. I honestly believe A-Rod has a higher probability of hitting 50 HR this year than I see Wright getting 40 (or 30 SB, frankly). Therefore, A-Rod becomes my choice here, though I don't think you would be hurting yourself by taking Hanley Ramirez. Any other choice, in my opinion, is a stretch. Chris, it's back to you!
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