Keeper Dilemmas

Originally posted January 28, 2008

This is going to be the first instance in which I milk my fantasy dilemmas for a column. I will probably do it again. The redeeming factor this time is that it has relevance to a dilemma you may be facing yourself. How do you decide on keepers?

I play in a dynasty league with a $260 salary cap, 23 active players, a 5 player reserve list, up to 4 year contracts, and a minor league system built up around a 3-round draft each year. We are allowed to take one expiring contract and extend it for 2 years at +$5, and +$6 from the previous contract. There are a few players worth considering from my team. Their salaries would be: Carlos Guillen at $20, Brandon Webb at $16, CC Sabathia at $14, Manny Corpas at $7, and Carlos Marmol at $7. It is a head to head, 6X6 league, counting Runs, HR, RBI, SB, OBP, and SLG for hitters, W, SV, ERA, WHIP, K, and Holds for pitchers.

Because we count holds, Marmol can be considered, but he’s the first one to go. He had great success last year, absolutely incredible. The downside to him is that his role is uncertain. If he closes for the Cubs he would be a pretty good deal at $7. Corpas looks to be the closer for the Rockies, and in this league, he is likely to go for at least $12 or maybe more. But I can’t count on him to repeat his success, and he is not a better value than the other two pitchers I could keep.

I love Carlos Guillen. This year he’ll play first, qualify at shortstop, hit in the middle of that great Detroit lineup, and is a threat for 100 runs and rbi, 20 homers, 10-20 stolen bases, and solid OBP and Slugging numbers. He traditionally drops a little low on the radar, and last year went for $15. He might go for $15-$25. I would usually err on the side of keeping a hitter, but I happen to have Troy Tulowitzki. Therefore Guillen is not a priority. He might make a good piece to play at my utility spot and to shuffle between short, utility, and first base.

None of these players are as good of a deal as Webb or Sabathia. It is a pretty good dilemma to be weighing, frankly. They cost roughly the same, and are both good choices, but it’s a pretty important decision. The only way to lose is by angering the gods Labrus and Ulnar Collaterus. I must admit that my gut reaction is to keep Webb. Let’s look at some stats and see if that first reaction holds up:

Webb, Born May 9, 1979
W IP K ERA WHIP BB/9 K/9 BABIP GB%
2005 14 229.0 172 3.54 1.26 2.32 6.76 .322 Unavailable
2006 16 235.0 178 3.10 1.13 1.91 6.82 .294 68%
2007 18 236.1 194 3.01 1.19 2.74 7.39 .293 64%

Sabathia, Born July 21, 1980
2005 15 196.2 161 4.03 1.26 2.84 7.37 .313 Unavailable
2006 12 192.2 172 3.22 1.17 2.06 8.03 .302 47%
2007 19 241.0 209 3.21 1.14 1.38 7.80 .317 48%

They’re only one year apart. The salaries are the same. Both play for good teams. Barring injury, you can expect both to have good seasons. Neither seems to have been buoyed by a streak of great luck – their BABIPs (batting average against on balls in play) are not out of range for their careers. This is a subject for an entire column, but for now trust me that this means that neither had outlandish good luck last year. For their basic stats, Sabathia and Webb are just about dead even. I think we’ll have to look deeper.

If you look toward the walks and strikeouts per 9 innings stats you’ll see that these pitchers achieve their success in different ways. Webb strikes out fewer batters, but draws more groundballs. Sabathia has consistently improved his control, impressively dropping his walks per nine innings by almost one-third each of the last two years. Webb is inconsistent with his walks, but improved his strikeout rate last year.

They are still really even. Webb has been more consistent with his production from year to year, whereas Sabathia clearly climbed to another level in 2007. We’re down to a difficult question. Is consistency more reliable than a breakout season? Unfortunately, that would take a ton of research to figure out.

For me the players are so close in production that this comes down to the most difficult quality to predict: health. The huge jump in the number of innings Sabathia pitched in 2006 (192.2) to 2007 (241) immediately stands out. That’s just regular season innings. He pitched 15 more in the post season. To be fair, Webb pitched 13 innings in the postseason himself, but I don’t think it’s that big of a deal. The general rule is that a jump in innings of more than 30 puts pitchers in danger. It most accurately applies to younger pitchers, but Sabathia pitched 63 more innings in 2007 than 2006, 45 more than his career high. That’s an enormous difference. He may be in danger of an injury due to this huge increase. This certainly is not an ironclad rule, and Sabathia is a strong guy. He might get even better this year, but I bet against it.

Webb only pitched 16 more innings in 2007, and has been a consistent, ace-level pitcher over the last three years. For that reason, I think he’s the safer bet, just a higher-probability move.

The moral of this story is that sometimes it is really difficult to make keeper decisions. Do your best to make the best choice, then put it behind you because now you have to research the rest of the players in advance of the draft or auction. Now that’s a tough job.