Early Season Game Strategies

Originally posted April 2, 2008

Part One of Two
Posted by Joe

So your drafts and auctions are over, and you are getting antsy to do something, to do ANYTHING. Well, while I do not necessarily encourage you to take action immediately in your leagues, you certainly can be doing something as the season begins. In this face-off, Chris and Joe give their opinions on the art of managing the early season in fantasy baseball.

First (and you certainly could have done this immediately following the draft or auction), make a list of players that, though they are not on your team, you want to watch a little more closely early in the season. These players might be free agents in your leagues or they might be on another team, but these players should be guys that you considered roster-worthy but did not get selected, or guys that might be dropped by another owner early in the season and that you believe have value. We’ll discuss how to use this list later. You may even want to rank these players in terms of value to your currently assembled team in case you have the opportunity to acquire a player at a later date.

Next, you need to take the time to critically assess your team. You probably didn’t leave the auction or draft with a team that has no flaws. Maybe you are weak at second base, maybe you are short stolen bases; it doesn’t matter what you are missing, you want to take note of it. Also look for surpluses on your roster. Knowing your roster thoroughly will help you when it comes time to make a trade or a waiver claim. Be very critical of yourself. I’d rather know my worst case scenario before it occurs (and be able to work on a solution before it occurs) than try to develop a game plan on the fly after the fact.

Similar to the previous point, you should then take the time to briefly evaluate every other team in your league. This need not be as in depth as your own team’s evaluation, but should give you a general idea of general needs. Hey, when another owner is looking to help his team, you want to be in the position to benefit by having a solution available that is tempting enough that they take it, but helps your squad more than theirs.

Now, take the time to watch the goings on in early season play, but certainly do not feel obliged to act. Be more inclined to make a move if a person’s status changes (someone pegged to be a back-up earns a starting role) than in response to a big game or a fast start. It is a very long season, and players have good games and bad games all the time. They’re more noticeable early in the season when they don’t have the accumulated statistics to tell the whole story. I tend to only grab those guys who get off to a fast start if I had them on my “watch” list, especially if I had them on my “watch” list because I think they might deliver statistics significantly better than in the past. Be sure that if you do decide to grab a player, you are doing so to fill a hole or better the quality of your roster. Nothing hurts more than dropping someone you drafted and watching him deliver a breakout season on somebody else’s roster.

It is also important to always know who on your roster is the most expendable. Say Huston Street walks off the mound clutching his pitching elbow on a nationally televised game. Do you really want to be figuring out whom to drop in order to get Alan Embree? As each other owner in your league is searching for the guy to drop, you’ll have already made the transaction.

This leads me to the next point. Know who, on every team, is in line to benefit if a starter were to go down with an injury. Knowing who to drop won’t do you much good if you don’t know who to pick up. Know where to find the closers-in-waiting for each team. If you can, watch who picks up saves when the regular closer is unavailable (rest, minor injury, etc.). Do remember that just because a player gets playing time does not mean that they’ll do anything with it!

Waiver priority is often overrated in fantasy baseball, but in NL or AL only leagues it might mean a half season of an all-star caliber player. Do not hesitate to use your waiver claims if someone you need comes up, but unless the player is clearly better than someone you could get as a free agent, why potentially lose out on that one big guy later? In mixed leagues? Use ‘em or lose ‘em!

Now, trades are always interesting early in the season. My advice is to only make a trade early if you clearly receive more than you give. Under no circumstances should you trade for a hot hand, unless you genuinely feel that the player you receive will maintain his current level of production throughout the year. Remember that three year averages are better indicators of future performance than are last week’s stats!

That being said, do pursue slow starters-especially if you can get them for fifty cents on the dollar. Beware of those injury risks though. But generally, even if a player has a couple of bad weeks, he’ll return to something close to his statistical averages as the season wears on. Those bad streaks just LOOK worse when you start the season with them. I used this practice to nab Carlos Zambrano in two leagues last year, and he certainly delivered his standard, if not inconsistent, performance.

So my advice for what you can do to stay active after those drafts and auctions is to remember to be patient, grab those guys you are watching only if they can help you fill a need, and only trade if you win, and preferably, win big.



Part Two of Two
April 6, 2008

Hey Joe,

You did a pretty good job of laying out some tactics that will help teams handle the early season tendency for overreaction and panic. My advice is a bit more specific about how a fantasy player can take the raw materials brought together in the draft or auction and forge them into your league’s winner.

The most important thing to keep in mind during this early part of the season is: Don’t be impulsive. You should not overreact and do something crazy like trade your cold all-stars for scorching also-rans. Below is my seven-point plan for success in the month of April:

1. Evaluate Your Team:
Ideally you have done this already. Take your team and make a projection for each player. This can be very easy or you could be very technical with it. Find a website or publication that has preseason projections, average the projections from a bunch of different sources, or do some hardcore analysis and devise your own projection. Then compile the numbers for your players. It’s better to err on the side of being conservative with these. Even if you think Prince Fielder’s going to hit 65 homers this year – knock it down a notch or two. You’ll figure out your weaknesses better this way.

Also, be sure not to project full seasons for your bench players. Just take the fraction of their stats that they’ll compile when you’ll be able to get them in the lineup. Add up your counting stats like home runs, runs, stolen bases, etc. to see how many you project for your team. Then do some rough averaging to get an idea of your team batting average, ERA, WHIP, etc. You’ll be more accurate if you include use at-bats and innings pitched to help weigh your rate stats, but you can get a rough idea without bothering. Now you have a less subjective basis for comparing your team with the league.

2. Be Realistic
Scan the other rosters in your league. Who looks the best? If you don’t have the gift of tons of free time, take a couple of top teams instead of the whole league, and compile team projections for them. Now compare your team to these top dogs. This technique might be best suited to head to head leagues – but in a points or roto league, if your team compares favorably to the best, you should still excel.

3. Make a Plan
You’ve compared your team to the other top contenders in your league. How do you match up? You might be the clear leader, among the contenders, or even sagging well behind. The third situation is the only one that’s dire. In the first scenario you should probably stand pat and see how the season goes.

The second scenario leads to two more questions: What are your strengths? What are your weaknesses? Can you deal from one of your strengths to shore up a weakness? If you have Jose Reyes and Carl Crawford – maybe you could boost your lagging power by trading for a guy with a shot at 40 homers. Maybe a two for one deal would be beneficial here – Crawford plus a bench player gets you Vlad? It’s worth a shot if you have… speed to burn (get it?).

The third scenario – you again must closely examine your weaknesses. Are you without speed? Can your pitchers strike anybody out? Did you forget to draft a closer? You’ll have to be creative, but have six months to fix them and catch your competition.

4. Manage Your Team:
Because you know what you need, now you can look for it.
-Watch for injuries and figure out who will replace the starter.
-Learn the top prospects and monitor their progress
-Watch the box scores – it is important to know Brandon Phillips hits 4th and are watching to see if Robinson Cano starts hitting 5th regularly so that you can adjust your RBI projection for him.

It’s important to make sure that you keep your expectations reasonable early in the season. If you expected a guy to go .275/12 HR/72 RBI and he goes .350/8/30 in April be sure to look back on his projected stats rather than expecting him to keep up that pace for the next five months. So, going forward, expect him to go for about .275/10/60 in the remaining 5/6ths of the season.

5. Don’t Panic
If ARod starts the season 6 for 60, don’t panic
If Beckett throws 2 clunkers to start the year, don’t panic.
And if Joe Nathan blows three April saves, don’t panic.

It’s a long season and April is too early to make rash decisions about your team. Odds are that dependable players will rebound. Keep an eye out for injuries and think about backup plans, but… don’t panic.

6. Don’t Get Cocky
This complements the previous point. If Adam Everett hits 8 homers this April, don’t expect him to continue at that pace. If Brian Bannister throws a no-hitter to follow up his shutout of the Tigers – don’t dump John Smoltz for him. If you picked Nate McLouth as a sleeper this year and his first week has exceeded your expectations – remember that he is not an established star. Don’t stop looking for back-ups just because someone starts strong.

7. Have Fun
Hey, it’s baseball season. Watch some games, see who’s playing well –if you think that adding that player might improve your team, go for it. If you have an irrational love for a player and want to pull for him to succeed – put him on your team; fantasy baseball is supposed to be fun.